Jackpot Frequency......

[MarySB]

I hope the following question(s) makes sense. If not move on to another thread.
 
I have a question relating to royal flush payouts.

 
My question can relate to any game and any paytable but for the purpose of my question I will use 10/7 DB.
 
Lets assume the machine I am playing has MG and 10/7 DB is one of the games. Denominations for this game 10/7 DB  is $.05 - .10 - .25 - .50 - 1.00 (and maybe also 2 & 5 $).
 
My understanding is that over "X" (million) number of plays one could expect a RF approximately every 48,000 (+-) plays....give or take whatever number you would like to pick.
 
To the root of my question: Is this once every 48,000 plays per denomination or any numbers of denominations?
 
A second way to ask the question is: If I play 48,000 plays of $.25 10/7 DB and without hitting a RF and then on the same machine I switch to $.50 10/7 DB and play 48,000 plays without a RF do I now have 96,000 plays towards a RF or do I have 48,000 plays only on one denomination and 48,000 plays on the second denomination?
 
A third way to ask the question is;  Does the frequency of a RF apply to a machine or to each game individually?

[Eduardo]

I will use a simpler number, 40,000.

The frequency applies to every single hand you play, no matter what denomination. Every hand you have that chance.

If you do something with 1 in 40,000 odds you can expect it to happen on average every 40,000 or so. But that is on average. You could go 100,000 or you could hit a royal 2 hands in a row. You should never expect anything as you go along, other than a 1 in 40,000 chance each time. If you haven't hit one in 75,000 hands you are no "closer" to hitting one than you were 60,000 hands ago. The odds on your next hand are still 1 in 40,000.

But if you play enough, you'll hit one about 1 in every 40,000 times on average.

This makes no difference what machine, what denomination, what casino, etc etc etc.

[shadowman]

The frequency of a RF relates to each and every hand. Essentially, you have a 1/48000 chance of hitting a RF on every hand and at any denomination (assuming you play the same strategy).
 
If you hit a RF on one hand you still have the same chance on the next hand. The past is meaningless. If you've gone 96,000 hands since your last RF you still have a 1/48000 chance on the next hand.
 
 

[Eduardo]

Looks like shadowman has learned a thing or two from me over the years

[shadowman]

Need to work on my typing speed.  Or, is that my thinking speed.

[faygo]

Looks like shadowman has learned a thing or two from me over the years



 
I know it has been been a long difficult hill to get SM to climb.
(don't anybody look upt some of Eduardo's early posts)

[jim18]

Good Afternoon MarySBLike you I have wondered what effect changing some aspect of my play would have on my chances of getting a big win.I am forced to agree with the experts that the odds of hitting a certain hand will remain the same, hand after hand, no matter what denomination, or machine you play.  And I am sure that the experts will agree that the odds of getting certain hands change from game to game, but once you are playing that game, the odds will not change, simply by playing a long time.However, I think there should be a distinction made between what are the odds of some event occurring, and how likely it is that an event will occur.I know that a writer for “Gambling Times, by the name of Henry T.  Has written about this in that magazine, but I did not read his article.  Perhaps you can learn something from reading that article, or contacting him.To illustrate my way of thinking, let me give you an example.  On a roulette wheel, if half the numbers were red, and half the numbers were black, we could make the statement that each spin of the wheel has exactly a 50% chance of coming up black.  If there are 5 black numbers in a row, the odds of a black number coming up on the next spin, would be 50%.However, when you look at the trend that has occurred, I think you can get a different perception of what may happen.  If you ask the question, what is the likelihood that 6 black numbers in a row will occur, I think the answer is one chance out of sixty-four.  So, in my mind, what has happened in the past has no bearing on the stated odds of the  next event, except that the likelihood of an event occurring is based on past events.Back to the RF question.  Yes, the odds of getting a RF on the next hand are lets say one out of forty thousand.  However, if you just hit a RF the odds remain one in forty thousand that you will get a RF on the next draw.  But the likelihood of back to back RF is a much larger number, say one chance in forty thousand times one chance in forty thousand.Now, for my disclaimer.  I am not a math expert so it may be that I am 100% wrong.  However, conventional wisdom will tell you that there should be a difference in meaning between “odds of” and “likelihood”.

[shadowman]

 
To illustrate my way of thinking, let me give you an example.  On a roulette wheel, if half the numbers were red, and half the numbers were black, we could make the statement that each spin of the wheel has exactly a 50% chance of coming up black.  If there are 5 black numbers in a row, the odds of a black number coming up on the next spin, would be 50%.

However, when you look at the trend that has occurred, I think you can get a different perception of what may happen.  If you ask the question, what is the likelihood that 6 black numbers in a row will occur, I think the answer is one chance out of sixty-four.  So, in my mind, what has happened in the past has no bearing on the stated odds of the  next event, except that the likelihood of an event occurring is based on past events.
 
Nope, the past events are over and done with. They have no affect on the next spin. However, if you were asked at the start of the 6 spins what the likelihood is of 6 blacks occurring then you are correct. But, to claim the roulette wheel has some kind of memory ... well, think about that.

Back to the RF question.  Yes, the odds of getting a RF on the next hand are lets say one out of forty thousand.  However, if you just hit a RF the odds remain one in forty thousand that you will get a RF on the next draw.  But the likelihood of back to back RF is a much larger number, say one chance in forty thousand times one chance in forty thousand.

Now, for my disclaimer.  I am not a math expert so it may be that I am 100% wrong.  However, conventional wisdom will tell you that there should be a difference in meaning between “odds of” and “likelihood”.
 
"odds of" is more of a precise mathematical term. "likelihood" can mean anything you want but if you want it to be useful then it means the same as "odds of".

[WisT]

Let me pose this subtle question.... 
 
If one plays a 10 play machine, then the odds of being dealt a Royal Flush are worse than 1 out of 6.4 million hands ???  Right?
 

[onemoretry]

Let me pose this subtle question.... 
 
If one plays a 10 play machine, then the odds of being dealt a Royal Flush are worse than 1 out of 6.4 million hands ???  Right?
 

Nope!  The odds of being dealt a royal flush (or any other hand for that matter) are the same for multiline as for single line.
 
Why would you think it would be otherwise?