It's Vegas Baby!!

[billryan]

My Moby was holding two pair in NSU Dueces.I know it's the right move but it seemed like I was losing over 90% of them. Then a week or so ago, I hit a streak where I won perhaps nine out of eleven at one point a and ended the day winning about half of them.
Sometimes you get the whale, other times the whale gets you.
If you can't believe in something as basic as math, what can you believe?

[markinca]

My Moby was holding two pair in NSU Dueces.I know it's the right move but it seemed like I was losing over 90% of them. Then a week or so ago, I hit a streak where I won perhaps nine out of eleven at one point a and ended the day winning about half of them.
Sometimes you get the whale, other times the whale gets you.
If you can't believe in something as basic as math, what can you believe?

Yea, it's easy to get seduced into thinking your long-term results will mirror your short-term. It's why I see so many people doing things on the BJ table like standing on a 15 vs. a dealer 10 because they've busted the last X times in a row and don't want to bust again.

[Tedlark]

Vman yes, I must have overlooked your post because it was rambling. It may be because since it was rambling; I just assumed it was a post by DaBurglar so I passed it over.

Anyway. The examples you gave were accurate but my point was that Mrs. Phil deviates from perfect strategy. Hey, how bout them Cards!

[notes1]

I just wonder if those who are so concerned about a 4 cent hand deviation expense, how many times a week they go to starbucks for an overpriced latte, how much they pay for a hair 'stylist", how much their monthly cell phone bill is, how much their car or rent payment might be, how much they spend eating out and at bars, how much they spend on clothes to stay in fashion, etc?

seems to me, four cents is a pretty cheap expense for one to enhance their entertainment. and, the hand deviation might even work out.

[Tedlark]

Ohh, well listen to the last of the big time spenders.....

Kidding, kidding. My score on notes' inquiry would be: $0-$18.00 per month (plus 10 buck tip)- $55.00 (plus another 55 because I pay my sisters)- #325.00 car payment - @$25.00 ( I treat myself on Saturday night) - $0 - and, - maybe $200.00 per year on clothes. Of course if I weren't such a slave to fashion I might be able to say $100.00 to stay in fashion...

[notes1]

Ohh, well listen to the last of the big time spenders.....
Kidding, kidding. My score on notes' inquiry would be: $0-$18.00 per month (plus 10 buck tip)- $55.00 (plus another 55 because I pay my sisters)- #325.00 car payment - @$25.00 ( I treat myself on Saturday night) - $0 - and, - maybe $200.00 per year on clothes. Of course if I weren't such a slave to fashion I might be able to say $100.00 to stay in fashion...

sorry ted, you do not qualify for my inquiry, as I believe you do not always play the best odds games and you also deviate from correct math plays.

$200 goes a long way, when your wardrobe comes from goodwill.

[billryan]

Prior to moving to Vegas, I think I bought one Starbucks in my life. Now, I generally have one a week, on Wednesday at Sunset Station, free to any 55 and over.Right after my $3 movie. I'm not a fan, but free be free.

[Lionqueen]

A lot of talking going on over a 4 cent deviation. And you are so right to compare. If I am playing multi play it's a different story but at 25 or 50 cents it's fine by me to miss the once every 20 inside straight. It's called gambling.

[OTABILL]

In the end, if you play enough hands (and we're talking a LOT of hands), the math will show itself.  Stories posted in here about personal anecdotes about 'hey i've hit so and so hand by making the wrong play so it can't be that bad' are useless.  Over the short term, anything can happen. 

What constitutes the long term in your view? In my case, I have been playing VP for a little over 10 years. I never have had a dealt royal and during numerous trips to Vegas/Laughlin no royals on single hand DDB which I have played 98% of the time. The same results for my wife as well. Now, you say these statistics are useless. However, this is my (our) reality. There is also no guarantee, one or both of us, given the uncertainties of life , could continue to go to Vegas or even play VP in the future, in which case the results coming close to the mathematical probabilities are nil. My point is that statistics, probability are all theoretical and often do not mirror reality. This does not mean we shouldn't continue to play hands correctly (with an occasional deviation). However as I have often posted, luck trumps (no pun intended) paytables and math.

I should note the no dealt royals includes playing at local casinos here in Arizona which both of us visited on average several times a month during that timeframe averaging at least 6 hours per trip.

[OTABILL]

A lot of talking going on over a 4 cent deviation. And you are so right to compare. If I am playing multi play it's a different story but at 25 or 50 cents it's fine by me to miss the once every 20 inside straight. It's called gambling.

That's my wife's philosophy as well. Couldn't agree more.