It's Vegas Baby!!

[FloridaPhil]

We couldn't agree more. We choose to play single line quarters for many reasons.  One reason is we know we can't always play according to the math and occasionally choose not to.  If we come out a little light and had more fun, what is lost?  Everyone approaches the game differently and plays for different reasons.  We believe in math, but we don't want it to be an unyielding overall controlling factor in how we play VP.  To us VP is fun, not work...We understand how this frustrates math only folks.  To us, VP is just not that big of a deal.  It's recreation and our decisions have no significant ramifications.  In our opinion, everyone would be a lot better off if they accepted this fact and stopped trying to convert us to their way of thinking.  It's all good....    

[Come Back Kid]

Hey FloridaPhil, sounds like you and your wife had a great vacation, a whole lot of fun, and some great poker hits!!!! What more could someone ask for!!! Congratulations!!!!

[markinca]

What constitutes the long term in your view? In my case, I have been playing VP for a little over 10 years. I never have had a dealt royal and during numerous trips to Vegas/Laughlin no royals on single hand DDB which I have played 98% of the time. The same results for my wife as well. Now, you say these statistics are useless. However, this is my (our) reality. There is also no guarantee, one or both of us, given the uncertainties of life , could continue to go to Vegas or even play VP in the future, in which case the results coming close to the mathematical probabilities are nil. My point is that statistics, probability are all theoretical and often do not mirror reality. This does not mean we shouldn't continue to play hands correctly (with an occasional deviation). However as I have often posted, luck trumps (no pun intended) paytables and math.

I should note the no dealt royals includes playing at local casinos here in Arizona which both of us visited on average several times a month during that timeframe averaging at least 6 hours per trip.Years, trips, days, they don't mean anything.  How many HANDS have you played?  Even if you've played a million hands, you still have about a 20% chance of not getting a dealt royal.  After 5 million hands, you get to being 99.95% likely.And I doubt you've played 5 million hands.  At 6 hours per trip, assuming, say, something like 800 hands per hour, you'd have to have had around 1,000 trips.  Luck does trump paytables and math in the SHORT TERM.  The math rules all in the long term (and again, millions upon millions of hands).  And long term is whatever you want it to be to be X% sure of a result.  You want to be 99% sure that you'll be be within Y amount of your expected loss?  There's a number of hands you'll need for that.  You want to be 99.999% sure?  You'll need even more hands, but there's a number for that.  Some of the even more mathematically inclined than me might chime in, but I would be willing to wager a large amount of money that not a single person who has played a -EV video poker game (and this is assuming perfect strategy) has been up after 5 million hands.  Oh, and for christ's sakes, I'm not trying 'convert' anyone.  Math isn't a damn religion.  It's not like all I play are +EV games.  I play all kinds of games, but I want the -EV to as little as possible, so I try to make the correct play every time, that's all.  Those of you who don't, the -EV is even more, period.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Come Back Kid]Hey FloridaPhil, sounds like you and your wife had a great vacation, a
whole lot of fun, and some great poker hits![/quote]Red Rock and South Point are great.   I tried to convince my wife we should move to Vegas, but she likes the green of Florida and our kids live here.  If you like VP, Vegas is paradise.  

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=OTABILL]What constitutes the long term in your view? In my case, I have been playing VP for a little over 10 years. I never have had a dealt royal and during numerous trips to Vegas/Laughlin no royals on single hand DDB which I have played 98% of the time. The same results for my wife as well. Now, you say these statistics are useless. However, this is my (our) reality. There is also no guarantee, one or both of us, given the uncertainties of life , could continue to go to Vegas or even play VP in the future, in which case the results coming close to the mathematical probabilities are nil. My point is that statistics, probability are all theoretical and often do not mirror reality. This does not mean we shouldn't continue to play hands correctly (with an occasional deviation). However as I have often posted, luck trumps (no pun intended) paytables and math.

I should note the no dealt royals includes playing at local casinos here in Arizona which both of us visited on average several times a month during that timeframe averaging at least 6 hours per trip.Years, trips, days, they don't mean anything.  How many HANDS have you played?  Even if you've played a million hands, you still have about a 20% chance of not getting a dealt royal.  After 5 million hands, you get to being 99.95% likely.And I doubt you've played 5 million hands.  At 6 hours per trip, assuming, say, something like 800 hands per hour, you'd have to have had around 1,000 trips.  Luck does trump paytables and math in the SHORT TERM.  The math rules all in the long term (and again, millions upon millions of hands).  And long term is whatever you want it to be to be X% sure of a result.  You want to be 99% sure that you'll be be within Y amount of your expected loss?  There's a number of hands you'll need for that.  You want to be 99.999% sure?  You'll need even more hands, but there's a number for that.  [/QUOTE]

My results may not mean anything to you, or anyone else on this site. But they mean something to me.

An interesting aside, you and most of the others here who concentrate on the math etc., apparently don't go to the casino with anyone else. Phil, myself and others who keep emphasizing having a good time as our primary objective often, if not all the time, go with a spouse or significant other on casino outings and play VP together. This may very well explain why we have a different perspective. So lets agree to disagree and leave it at that. Fair enough?

[onemoretry]

I'm quite certain the majority of math players aren't as closed minded as a it may seem. I would love to hear from some that understand where we are coming from.
I suppose I qualify as a "math player". To me, the "best" way to play the game is to know the plays that have the highest overall return, and adhere to them.

I do accept that some people prefer to give up a little of that overall return, and, instead, go for the big hit. That approach does make some sense to me, as long as the person making that decision fully understands and accepts the consequences.

What I find truly puzzling are play decisions based on prior results. To me, it is completely irrational to not draw to four flushes because "they're not hitting today", shunning inside straight draws because "I never hit them, and they're not worth much anyway", or making any other play adjustments according to how well, or not well, the day has been going so far.

But, puzzling or not, I don't really care what other players do. In fact, in my opinion, it is to my personal advantage for other players to play sub optimally, whatever their reason for so doing. They are adding to the casino's bottom line, and that enhances the casino's ability to continue to offer decent video poker games.     

[markinca]

My results may not mean anything to you, or anyone else on this site. But they mean something to me.

An interesting aside, you and most of the others here who concentrate on the math etc., apparently don't go to the casino with anyone else. Phil, myself and others who keep emphasizing having a good time as our primary objective often, if not all the time, go with a spouse or significant other on casino outings and play VP together. This may very well explain why we have a different perspective. So lets agree to disagree and leave it at that. Fair enough?I didn't even know we were disagreeing about anything.As far as I know, these are facts:- In the short term, anything can happen.  Can you hit royals 3 hands in a row?  Unlikely, but sure.  Can you hit royals 1 million hands in a row?  I mean, I guess it's possible, but only in the sense that it's possible that wings will spontaneously grow out your back and you'll fly out into the sky.- But talking long term, If you play a -EV poker game, the more hands you play, the closer you
will get to your expected outcome.  No, there are no guarantees, and no
matter how many hands you play, it will never be 100%, but you can get
as arbitrarily close to 100% as you want, if you play enough hands.- While there are 'correct' moves to make EV-wise, people are obviously free to play however makes them happiest.  Just know that over the LONG TERM, you will lose more, as the effects of short term luck will evaporate.And just as an aside, I can't speak for the other math types here, but I'm not trying to convince anyone to play a certain way.  What I have an issue with is that the people saying "Well, I've hit X royal flushes doing this Y incorrect move, so the math doesn't holdt" are just flat-out wrong.  You can't be results-oriented in your thinking.  I know in live poker, that's a huge flaw for players as well.  "Oh, well I won a pot sticking around when I only had 1 out, so it must have not been that bad of a play."  No, it was still a bad play, you just lucky.  Same thing with video poker when you make a hand on an incorrect hold.  You got lucky.  But the longer you play, the less luck matters.

[markinca]

But, puzzling or not, I don't really care what other players do. In fact, in my opinion, it is to my personal advantage for other players to play sub optimally, whatever their reason for so doing. They are adding to the casino's bottom line, and that enhances the casino's ability to continue to offer decent video poker games.     That's a great point.  If everyone played FPDW perfectly and players took out .76% of all the money put in, those machines would be out of all casinos by next week.

[Lionqueen]

Onemoretry I'm glad to help you out.

OTABILL you nailed it! I very rarely gamble alone but go with my group and we have a blast! We have fun with the employees, visit with other regulars, high five each other on a great win, give each other $20 whenever we hit a jackpot, cuss like sailors when we miss a Royal and when we lose, and to compensate for those 4 cent errors. take as many bottled soft drinks & water as we can carry from the VIP lounge on our way out the door. (With the security guards blessing - they love us). 💕

[markinca]

Onemoretry I'm glad to help you out.

OTABILL you nailed it! I very rarely gamble alone but go with my group and we have a blast! We have fun with the employees, visit with other regulars, high five each other on a great win, give each other $20 whenever we hit a jackpot, cuss like sailors when we miss a Royal and when we lose, and to compensate for those 4 cent errors. take as many bottled soft drinks & water as we can carry from the VIP lounge on our way out the door. (With the security guards blessing - they love us). 💕 Oh, that's another thing I had a question about.  Why is there a perception that making deviations equates to having more fun?  Implying that playing 'by the book' is more boring?  To me, holding AAA+kicker and hoping for that last A for a big payout more exciting than just holding the AAA.  Breaking up a 222XX 5oak in DW to go for the 4th deuce is more exciting than just keeping the 5oak.