Major mistake?

[onemoretry]

Hmm, I only calculated a 41% chance of missing kickers on 3 draws in a row. So in other words, you have a 59% shot of hitting at least 1 kicker.You are absolutely right (I shouldn't try calculating probabilities late at night and after consuming several beers).

[onemoretry]

This is not precisely on topic, but, it's close.

Sunday, I played the daily game, 100 play with quick quads. I played triple double bonus. Relatively early in my second or third session, I was dealt three 4s and a 2. This hand is, to me, an absolute "no brainer", since, in addition to the premium quad with kicker result, quick quads are possible as well. I hit four of the premium quads and several quick quads for a total of around 11500 credits.

Not too much later, I was dealt the same hand, three 4s and a 2. I did not do as well on this one, with two premium quads and some quick quads for around 7500 credits.

Then, it got even better. Along came a deal with three aces and a 4. There are no quick quads possible with this hand, but, as has been stated several times over in this thread, the superior play is to keep the kicker with the aces, which is what I did. I made three quad aces with kicker in the 100 attempts, for close to 14000 credits.

So, in a total of 300 one card draws, hoping to complete a premium quad with kicker hand, I connected nine times, for a success rate of one per 33.33 attempts. I guess you could say that the math worked out.

And, just to finish things off, four deals after the three aces with a 4, I was presented with all four aces and a 3!   When the session was completed, I was told that if I had been playing quarters in the casino, I would have won $106,850.00. I had to settle for $25 for winning the daily contest.

As I have said many times before, you just never know what's going to happen in this unpredictable game we play.

[alpax]

Congrats OMT for winning the daily contest. It is not a reflection of long term skill or results, you have to be dealt it. So good fortune went your way.

Normally in tournament settings, you play chase the royal strategy and such, or chase the aces for the highest positive score.

Now on the user settings page on this website, you can change the denomination from quarters to something else you normally play so that it calculates your winnings in what you normally play.

[Tedlark]

And besides the 25 bucks you won you also got an award for winning a daily contest,right?

[markinca]

So, in a total of 300 one card draws, hoping to complete a premium quad with kicker hand, I connected nine times, for a success rate of one per 33.33 attempts. I guess you could say that the math worked out.


Awesome, good work!

These high variance plays (e.g. keeping the kicker) are definitely something one would feel better about when playing something like a 100-play game. On a single-line (or heck, even 3/5/10-play), it's easy to miss the last ace when you keep the kicker so you think to yourself, "Well that was dumb, I won't keep the kicker anymore." But when you do it hundreds and hundreds of times (which obv goes much faster with 100-play), it's so much more likely that the correct play will show itself.

[onemoretry]

   And besides the 25 bucks you won you also got an award for winning a daily contest,right? Assuming you mean an achievement, yes - i now have 18 achievements.

Also, I earned an entry into next year's Tournament of Champions.

[onemoretry]

   But when you do it hundreds and hundreds of times (which obv goes much faster with 100-play), it's so much more likely that the correct play will show itself. Actually, a good way to help you decide how to play a particular hand is to ask yourself the question: "What would I do if this was 100 play?" Often, if you look at a hand from that perspective, the best play becomes more obvious.

[markinca]

[QUOTE=markinca]   But when you do it hundreds and hundreds of times (which obv goes much faster with 100-play), it's so much more likely that the correct play will show itself. Actually, a good way to help you decide how to play a particular hand is to ask yourself the question: "What would I do if this was 100 play?" Often, if you look at a hand from that perspective, the best play becomes more obvious.[/QUOTE]

Excellent point.

[sza]

You have to play 100% mathematically regardless of your situation. The computer/machine and mathematics do not know you or care about your situation and who you are whatsoever.