How much do we still not know?

[williejoe]

Vman96. thanks for the link----this is a good site. i think shadowman is probably correct-----we are never going to really know how a particular casino is managing their seeding. it is noted that under the rng seeding section ( page 41 ), it is stated: " it is permissible NOT to use a random seed"---the main requirement here seems to be that different games on the same machine and/or games on other machines will not synchronize. i guess this is why, for example, a multi-game machine can be cold on TDB and hot on DDB.

for the last three years i have been using the WOLF VIDEO POKER simulation software. on this software you can choose one of five prng algorithms to run. it also gives you the option to reseed at anytime. very often when you switch algorithms or reseed the same algorithm----you immediately see a definite change in the how hot or cold the the game is. though, in the long term ones overall results should be the same. but this gets back to the issue that few of us play for the long term.

also, i'm not sure why a casino could not play a role in how their machines are seeded. i'm not aware of any regulation or technical issue that would prevent them from doing so----as long as they adhere to their currently stated regulations---which seems to give them this fexibliity

[shadowman]

williejoe, the casinos probably have no control over the seeding. That would all be internal confidential code of the manufacturers like IGT and Ballys. There would need to be a screen interface and I have never heard of anything like that being provided. In fact, the manufacturers have a good reason to keep it internal. If machines were hacked and the reseeding determined it could compromise the randomness of the machine. That would make the companies liable. So, not only is it unlikely, it would be stupid to provide it.

Also keep in mind that you will always find examples of things you are looking for. That is how the mind works. Random events always show short term patterns. However, they are phantoms. When the mind sees something it expects it is given higher status. Don't let yourself get fooled.

[jc1656]

I am reading this post but 16 pages is a lot! I am on a very bad run currently(1 royal in 2 years), I am not the smartest person in the world. Is it possible that the machine could reset itself when someone new sits down to go through hundreds of hands before a 4oak to make sure its on the positive side? I have been playing for 20+ years on best paytables and I can't seem to get any traction when playing, is two years not enough time to see trends? I am just asking because frustration is setting in especially when I can blow through my bankroll 95% of the time and not get to play much.(in case you ask, I play DDB AND DW and BP Deluxe FP MOST)I play around 700-800 hands an hour.I don't know if this is the right place to post this, just curious to get some answers from people who know what they are talking about. thanks!

[olds442jetaway]

Unfortunately, bad cycles can last years. I am in one of those now running between 120,000 and 200,000 hands between Royals when they should hit over time every 40,000 hands or so. On the other hand, playing the same bank of machines as me, a guy I know just from seeing him at the casino hit 2 Royals in less than 5 minutes and another one later in the day. He is strictly a 9/6 JOB player. If you are in one of the bad cycles, playing JOB will make your bankroll last a lot longer assuming in your bad cycle you are not hitting aces, 2,3,4, quads etc. on DDB in their normal frequency. I find JOB just too boring to play all of the time myself, so for a diversion when the quads are not hitting, I switch to Joker Kings 17/7 and find I can hit many more quads with the joker. Over time you will hit 3 or 4 as many quads on joker as any of the draw games, but you also pay the penalty of only getting 17 units back for each unit played. To compensate for this, I play a progression by increasing my bet 1 unit for every 20 units lost. and back the bet down accordingly. For instance, yesterday I played about 6,000 hands. After the first 3,000 hands, only one quad had hit on JOB. Switched to Joker Kings and quads kept me alive the rest of the day. I only ended up plus 50 units and never hit a Royal, 5 of a kind, or straight flush either. The quads with a joker came in quite regularly though. To play this way, I find I need a bankroll of at least 1200 units for the day or 300 bucks if playing quarters. Finally, as much fun as DDB can be, not getting paid 2/1 for the 2 pair really adds up over time if your quads are not hitting. Not that it matters much, but in the long run on Joker Kings, you should hit one of these.Either 5 of a kind, a Wild Royal, or a Straight Flush roughly every 7,300 hands or once a day over time playing 700 hands an hour for 10 hours. Good luck and hope the bad cycle is near its end. 

[jc1656]

olds,
thanks for the reply,we all get on bad runs! I keep telling myself its got to end, but we all say that right!
I wish you all the luck on your next trip, mine is in 10 days to the south point in VEGAS! they owe me a few good hands!!!!!!

[BillyJoe]

I am reading this post but 16 pages is a lot! I am on a very bad run currently(1 royal in 2 years), I am not the smartest person in the world. Is it possible that the machine could reset itself when someone new sits down to go through hundreds of hands before a 4oak to make sure its on the positive side? I have been playing for 20+ years on best paytables and I can't seem to get any traction when playing, is two years not enough time to see trends? I am just asking because frustration is setting in especially when I can blow through my bankroll 95% of the time and not get to play much.(in case you ask, I play DDB AND DW and BP Deluxe FP MOST)I play around 700-800 hands an hour.I don't know if this is the right place to post this, just curious to get some answers from people who know what they are talking about. thanks!
Suggestion: try some 'poorer' paytables, and see if any premium hands pop up. I play a lot of TDB on Vegas strip casinos with poorer paytables, and seem to connect often enough.
 
It sounds like it couldn't hurt.

[BillyJoe]

I doubt we will ever know when the RNG is reseeded. However, there is a noticeable pause in IGT machines after every 100 hands when they log results. It would be a perfect time to also reseeded the RNG.
So, you suspect that a reseeding occurs based on the number of hands played (100), and not just time? That would mean that you could not get to another seeded position by just sitting at the machine and waiting a bit.

[shadowman]

[QUOTE=shadowman]I doubt we will ever know when the RNG is reseeded. However, there is a noticeable pause in IGT machines after every 100 hands when they log results. It would be a perfect time to also reseeded the RNG.
So, you suspect that a reseeding occurs based on the number of hands played (100), and not just time? That would mean that you could not get to another seeded position by just sitting at the machine and waiting a bit. [/QUOTE]

True, but while you're waiting thousands of hands would pass you by. You might get the same point that another reseeding would have taken you.

[Vman96]

Unfortunately, bad cycles can last years. I am in one of those now running between 120,000 and 200,000 hands between Royals when they should hit over time every 40,000 hands or so.

You play 120k hands in a week? LOL

I haven't got a Royal in the casino since September, but I'm not sure if I have even played 40k hands since that point (guessing not). I'm a numbers guy, but don't keep records of my play for anything.   

[olds442jetaway]

Actually, my average is 15,000-20,000 hands a week. Not an exact count, but at 700 hands an hour with an average day at 9 hours and 3 trips a week that is what it works out to be. Wow! At that rate, I should be hitting a Royal every 3 weeks. Unfortunately, it is more like every 3 months. That is why I no longer rely on hitting Royals to minimize my losses. At least for now, the only way I have been able to save a good chunk of my bankroll is to resort to methods like I described in my other post today in the strategy section. Two nights ago, the guy playing next to me hit a nice Royal holding 3 cards. I had noticed about 5 minutes before that that he had only 45 credits left when he hit 4 Aces on DDB. That gave him some nice ammo to continue. Five minutes later the Royal hit for him. He said he had been playing over 11 hours straight and really looked it too. While waiting for the slot attendant to come, he told me a story I have no reason to doubt but have never heard of it before. He claims to have hit 5 Royals in one 24 hour period at Mohegan Sun. He also said a supervisor told him the house record is 7. I personally know of someone hitting 3 first hand. I guess someone may run the numbers on this. I would be curious on the odds of hitting 5 in a 24 hour period guessing one would play about 700 hands an hour probably for 12 hours in that time period. I probably computed this wrong, but came up with odds of over 3,000 to one.