Poker Today vs Poker Yesteryear

[ko king]

KK, i have told you a number of times how much i enjoy your posts, but this is the best ever. there is just so much info and the story is great.
 
it is disturbing , but not surprising that regulators in some juristictions, have no clue about some of the games you were asking about. from the way you tell the story, they simply group slots and vp results together, making sure they pay the minimum/max allowed under state law, rather than testing to make sure they match with the advertised paytables.
 
these are supposed to be the folks protecting the public, it seems as they saw you as the enemy. makes one wonder when someone threatens legal action when one is seeking the truth, what are they afraid of. 
 
i will accept the notion that when the machines leave the manufacture, they meet legal requirements. but, after that, when they get into a casino, who knows what is done to them. maybe the regulators response was just an isolated bad event. i doubt it. no one is really checking these machines in many casinos.
                                                                                                                                                                                   
 
Thanks, I'm sorry to be so long with my post but that's just the way I am, I turn a reply or answer into a short story. I may have mentioned it before but I've met and had conversations with some of our local gaming regulators. Fine folks, each and every one of them, none of them know the slightest thing about gaming. I ask one of them if the video poker I was playing was run by an RNG, meaning was it completly random. I wasn't surprised when she said "That's probably something I should know, I'll check and get back to you". Another time I was talking to a very nice fellow, he seemed pretty smart so I started explaining all the odds and statistics concerning the vp game I was playing, he was like a deer caught in the headlights and all he could say was, "where did you learn all that stuff, do they have a school or something you go to". I then ask him what he id before he went to work as a gaming regulator, he said he sold used cars. Best conversation I ever had was with a woman that seemed to know her stuff pretty well, said she had and never would gamble, she had worked in the office before they put her on the casino floor. When I was explaining all the odds and statistics to her she made a great point. She ask me where I had gotten all the numbers for the odds and statistics from, then she said can you show me anywhere on the machine you're playing where these odds and statistics are advertised. which I could not. I then ask about the regulations concerning the game I was playing and she said to her knowledge none of the odds and statistics I mentioned were in any regulation she could remember seeing. When they do check a machine at random to insure it is operating within the set boundries, they look to see that the RNG program has not been compromised, meaning the silver packing containing the program was still in tact and that the state seal for approval was not broken. I was even allowed to see inside the machine and get a peek at the actual package that contained the RNG program, made me feel all warm and fuzzy knowing this package and seal strip was till in tact. Are the games still all fair and random, I don't have the slightest idea, have the games changed within the past few years, not a doubt in my mind that they have.

[LovePlusOne]

My results are not in any way scientific or factual and they most likely fall well within the bounds of randomness.  That said, I have made two observations in reference to how the new machines play. The first is that single coin jackpots seem to be more frequent and the second is max coin jackpots bunch up and have longer dead streaks between them.  It also seems more common these days to be dealt a jackpot out of the blue than to hit one with cards in the hand.   I don't know if this is factual but it sure seems like it on the machines I play.   Maybe in 1GB of hands it will even out for me... 



Funny you should mention that. Last Thursday at the Tropicana in AC, I was dealt a Royal Flush. This was after getting dealt four 3's and then pulling the kicker, getting dealt 4 Aces (no kicker), plus several assorted 4 of a kinds, a straight flush and many full houses. This machine was on fire! I didn't want to leave it but when it started to cool, it was time to say goodbye to this beautiful machine.

This was my first dealt Royal

[Eduardo]

koking, as for who you would actually show the data to, I'm not talking about putting an end to it on a high level. I'm talking about understanding whether this is actually happening. Not for the sake of punishing anyone but for understanding it. Because I personally would like to know. People could share the data here and in the vp community. Then from there who knows where it goes.

Why? First because I trust the game right now. And because I have seen a lot of people make claims like this in the past who were very unreliable, claiming to be "experts." But that doesn't mean this particular claim is not legitimate. It just makes me skeptical. So I would love to see it explored, particularly because it would be so easy for anyone who took the time and was reliable. I also have no idea whether this would actually be a problem if true because I don't fully understand the regulations. It just might change my expectations. Like I said before, my expectation is that if I play correctly, I will get a certain number of jacks or better over time, a certain number of full houses (on average) and quads etc and that is what determines the return on the game. My understanding is that class 3 machines are supposed to operate like a fair deck of cards dealt at random and fall into percent returns on average only because randomness over millions of hands works that way, not because they are actually "controlled" to give a certain return.

Better understanding the laws and how the games work would be good for everyone I think just so we go in with the right expectations. We need to be able to trust the game. This can be harder for people when it's a machine vs a roulette table or a physical deck of cards. I'm not afraid to take a gamble, but I want to know the odds.

FAA, as for who wants to do that and be a "actuary" while gambling? Well, not me. Like you I'm guessing, that's not why I play. I wouldn't enjoy it and I might not be meticulous enough about it to be a reliable reporter. I don't play enough and I don't keep meticulous records. But I know there are people who do, and they might actually enjoy exploring something like this. Some here are reporting quads etc and they do play a lot, so I appreciate that. But I also know those are a more rare event and if someone finds themselves at the bottom of that "curve" for a long while, it could and should happen to some people sadly. That's just how it plays out. But if we're talking about more common hands, that can be gathered much more quickly and reliably if someone sets their mind to it, because Jacks or Better or other small wins are so frequent.

If there really has been a change, it would matter to these players a lot more than it does to me. So I think someone would take it on.

[ko king]

koking, as for who you would actually show the data to, I'm not talking about putting an end to it on a high level. I'm talking about understanding whether this is actually happening. Not for the sake of punishing anyone but for understanding it. Because I personally would like to know. People could share the data here and in the vp community. Then from there who knows where it goes.

Why? First because I trust the game right now. And because I have seen a lot of people make claims like this in the past who were very unreliable, claiming to be "experts." But that doesn't mean this particular claim is not legitimate. It just makes me skeptical. So I would love to see it explored, particularly because it would be so easy for anyone who took the time and was reliable. I also have no idea whether this would actually be a problem if true because I don't fully understand the regulations. It just might change my expectations. Like I said before, my expectation is that if I play correctly, I will get a certain number of jacks or better over time, a certain number of full houses (on average) and quads etc and that is what determines the return on the game. My understanding is that class 3 machines are supposed to operate like a fair deck of cards dealt at random and fall into percent returns on average only because randomness over millions of hands works that way, not because they are actually "controlled" to give a certain return.

Better understanding the laws and how the games work would be good for everyone I think just so we go in with the right expectations. We need to be able to trust the game. This can be harder for people when it's a machine vs a roulette table or a physical deck of cards. I'm not afraid to take a gamble, but I want to know the odds.

FAA, as for who wants to do that and be a "actuary" while gambling? Well, not me. Like you I'm guessing, that's not why I play. I wouldn't enjoy it and I might not be meticulous enough about it to be a reliable reporter. I don't play enough and I don't keep meticulous records. But I know there are people who do, and they might actually enjoy exploring something like this. Some here are reporting quads etc and they do play a lot, so I appreciate that. But I also know those are a more rare event and if someone finds themselves at the bottom of that "curve" for a long while, it could and should happen to some people sadly. That's just how it plays out. But if we're talking about more common hands, that can be gathered much more quickly and reliably if someone sets their mind to it, because Jacks or Better or other small wins are so frequent.

If there really has been a change, it would matter to these players a lot more than it does to me. So I think someone would take it on.


                                                                                                                                                                      
 
Maybe I should consider starting to play Jacks or Better, I don't know. I've played the same game/games for around 20 years now and thought I had a handle on just how extreem the games could be, I saw some bad streaks thru the years, learned to accept them and play thru. Here's what I know, for all those years of playing I could look back and remember there were some tough runs, many ups and downs because i played a lot, still do. No matter how bad it got I didn't panic or think to much about it because I knew it would turn around and it always did. I would have a stack of W*2G's at the end of each year and I could get my players summary and say I got what I deserved. I can't say that anymore, I still get and occasional W-2G but the really good nights just aren't there near enough to control losses like they used to be. I can't offer a good explanation or reason as to why other than I haven't changed, the only thing I can truly see is that there are so few players anymore, what that has to do with my results I can't say. I remember asking the question on this site "if there are so few players playing anymore could that have an effect on my results", most people said no. My common sense tells me though that if there's less dollars going into the machines I should expect less dollars to come out. In other words if ten people put money into a cardboard box every night, some of them put in $5, some $10 and others put in say maybe $200, then I put my $2K in I shouldn't expect to get much back, the money is just not in the box. A few years back there would be 10 people putting in $2K each into the box which allowed for some pretty exciting chances. Hope that makes sense to you because it sure makes perfect sense to me.

[FAA]

Thursday at the Tropicana in AC, I was dealt a Royal Flush. This was
after getting dealt four 3's and then pulling the kicker, getting dealt 4
Aces (no kicker), plus several assorted 4 of a kinds, a straight flush
and many full houses. This machine was on fire! I didn't want to leave
it but when it started to cool, it was time to say goodbye to this
beautiful machine.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------You've got to be effing kidding, LPO. I haven't been able to catch a cold for at least the last four Tropicana trips. Of course I don't play DDB. I abandoned the place out of sheer frustration and may as well cut up my players card. You must have milked the one cash cow in the building.

[FAA]

My common sense tells me though that if there's less dollars going into
the machines I should expect less dollars to come out. In other words if
ten people put money into a cardboard box every night, some of them put
in $5, some $10 and others put in say maybe $200, then I put my $2K in I
shouldn't expect to get much back, the money is just not in the box. A
few years back there would be 10 people putting in $2K each into the box
which allowed for some pretty exciting chances. Hope that makes sense
to you because it sure makes perfect sense to me.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------That's my common sense view also. Of course we are going to be drowned out by the mavens shouting from the rooftops that we are short sighted and that any machine can pay out big at any time, etc. I can hear them now. We'll just have to agree to disagree with that faction.

[FAA]

if we're talking about more common hands, that can be gathered much
more quickly and reliably if someone sets their mind to it, because
Jacks or Better or other small wins are so frequent.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I suppose that in a casino with a generous amount of side space or a bar, I can bring a clicker and click whenever I have a JOB on that game. Assuming I play a light 400 hands an hour, I better get eighty clicks!

[notes1]

as a non computer tech person, i have a question in reference to something KK mentioned. presuming that the machines leave the factory in a legal manner, other than paytables, is the only thing that affects the results, the RNG? i really do not know. i often play on machines that are at least 10 years old. am i to believe that no program updates/changes to those machines that affect how the cards are dealt/shuffled/drawn could be uploaded over that entire time? is the only possible change that has ever occured on these machines only a paytable change?

[ko king]

My common sense tells me though that if there's less dollars going into the machines I should expect less dollars to come out. In other words if ten people put money into a cardboard box every night, some of them put in $5, some $10 and others put in say maybe $200, then I put my $2K in I shouldn't expect to get much back, the money is just not in the box. A few years back there would be 10 people putting in $2K each into the box which allowed for some pretty exciting chances. Hope that makes sense to you because it sure makes perfect sense to me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That's my common sense view also. Of course we are going to be drowned out by the mavens shouting from the rooftops that we are short sighted and that any machine can pay out big at any time, etc. I can hear them now. We'll just have to agree to disagree with that faction.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
 
 Glad to see I'm not the only one. Another way of looking at it is the Powerball, it's totally random, plenty of regulations and rules. What would happen to the payouts if instead of millions playing the game there were only thousands. Here's what I truly think happened, there was a recession so I'm told, casinos seen revenue drop. Now they had two choices, cut back on employees, comps and other expenditures, they did just that. To be honest I never noticed that there fewer players, casinos were as crowded as ever. Now it could be that people were still attending the casinos in equal numbers as before just spending less dollars. The main thing we have to keep in mind is that these casinos are corporations responsible to stockholders, not players. The very first obvious thing everyone noticed is the slots stopped hitting jackpots like they were, that was very easy to see with your own eyes just by walking the floors. Next thing you know people are complaining and then you can't help but see that there are less players playing slots, the most obvious was the high limit rooms. I started to notice each time I went to the casino it looked like fewer cars in the parking lots, didn't have to park out in the north forty anymore. When I would walk into the casinos you could see that less players were there, I would walk the entire floor of the casino looking for jackpots, it got harder and harder to spot one. More and more players quit coming, the situation got even worse and you could see it with other businesses that depended on casino traffic. The casino/corporations needed to at least maintain profit margins working with less players and money, more cutbacks. It took a while for all this hit video poker, most of us still stuck to the tried and true and they continued to operate just like they always did. Then it happened almost overnight, something was different, couldn't quite put my finger on it at first because I figured it was just a bad run. Most vp players keep to themselves other than say congrats on a nice hit so we weren't sharing much info at first. It took a while but vp players started to mumble and grumble to themselves, you could everyones frustration, we're still not sharing thoughts and results because noone wants to talk about how much they're losing. Finally it got to the point that we began to communicate with each other, "are you doing as bad as me" became the normal question. Even the slot attendents we knew said people just weren't hitting like they used to, they should know they're at the casino and the ones bringing the money for handpays. After a while the number of vp players began to dwindle and play just seemed to get worse. Now it is what it is, much fewer players at all the games. The casinos have cutback as much as they possibly can, some closed the doors, others are on the brink. My feeling is that they had to do something, what it is we may never know but it's not the same game, no way.

[Eduardo]

Powerball isn't the best example though because the jackpot increases are actually based on amount of play.

That is more like a video poker progressive. It grows as long as there is no winner (based on amount of play) and then resets.

If progressives are being hit less often with fewer players... well that is to be expected. But I guess that is another subject.