casino integrity

[olds442jetaway]

I find the comment by SPX very interesting regarding the possibility of premium hands being dealt more often at one credit than multiple credits bet. If that is true, it could explain why Fla Phil is doing well so far with his method. Now that I think about it, sometimes when I walk in to the casino, I will play 1 credit to try and win a small amount to cover my tips for waitresses etc. for the session. Almost every single time, I am able to catch some nice hits betting for just a few minutes with one coin in. I then cash out and have some singles for the waitress. Sometimes I will try 3 or 4 machines playing this way cashing out a couple of bucke ahead each time. I can't remember the last time I got stuck and lost a 20 or 2 playing this way. I am going to have to keep better track on this and will report back after a big sample is taken.

[BillyJoe]

i am not intersted in slots, i am only concerned about vp. Judging by the number of posts you have made, i am assuming you have been playing vp for years. My original question still stands, have you experienced any change in your personal vp payouts in the last 5 years? All things being equal are you winning/losing the same, more or less?   
The quick answer is - No Change. But, I need to put that in context. I prefer to play higher volatility games, like TDB, so my expectations are set accordingly. If I have a losing trip/session, I chalk it up to the type of games that I enjoy playing. I have been fortunate over the past few years to have hit some sizeable VP jackpots, like $72k and $64k, which will, of course, help skew overall results.

My other observation, though, is that there are fewer VP machines vs slot machines in every casino that I frequent. Add to that the number of players playing at low denoms and less than max bet, and you just don't see as many handpays. People could be sitting at VP machines playing single coin nickels, hitting RF after RF, and you would never know.

I believe that there are just so many good hands to be had in the universe of play on a VP machine over time. The math supports that. If those good hands are being 'used up' by folks playing at a low level, there is less for all the rest of us to go around.    

[DaBurglar]

Well you are correct about the trend Billyjoe, there are less and less VP machines everywhere, and what people are left to play them have generally curtailed their play down so it could be one reason we see less handpays......But I myself consistently play 25 cents, and I will get a few hand pays when things are normal, when I hit a progressive or when I play a Multiline game or single line for 10 credits, etc.    And I definitely have seen very few handpays myself in the last 3-4 years versus prior, and my play has been the same in terms of amount, with the one exception being the last 10 months or so in AC where I have cut my sessions literally in half and instead play more Live poker versus people.    I dunno.....Your analogy about the "supply" of good hands in the universe is amusing, but as far as we currently understand how video poker is SUPPOSED to work, I dont think your analogy works in the literal sense.    Isnt your average VP machine supposed to be totally random, and each single deal is an independent event?  Such that, in theory anyway, a person COULD conceivably get a royal flush each time they deal/draw, right?    You get what I mean....it's like the old Coin flip cliche......you COULD get heads 50 times in a row, but the odds of heads showing up on the 51st flip is the same as the other 50, blah blah blah etc etc and so forth......That's why the suspicion persists that something has changed that we all are somehow "missing", or not understanding, or just plain UNAWARE....something mechanical or logistical or operational with the latest generation(s) of games/machines.     Someone, somewhere, some day will provide us the answer if there is one to be had......

[spxChrome]

[QUOTE=notes1]
I have been fortunate over the past few years to have hit some sizeable VP jackpots, like $72k and $64k, which will, of course, help skew overall results.


So take out those 2 hands and you are down another $136K. But that is probably just 1 trip for you

Seriously though I think 2 things are clear leaving a cloudy result. People are winning less and video poker has not changed. It just does not add up. Either people are winning and not talking about it or the machine has changed outside the paytable.

I used to start with a $2.5K bankroll playing single line 10/6 DDB and 9/7 TDB and play for 6+ hours or so... now it takes that to get 2 or 3 quads.

[notes1]

It appears there is a split between those who believe all casinos operate in an absolute honest fashion and those, like myself, who question whether something is going on.  There does seem to be more who have experienced a larger loss for a vp session, as opposed to years before the financial crisis and the resulting drop in business at many casinos.  The majority of casino experts have long suggested that vp players were always better off playing at casinos that had strong state regulations. New Jersey was among the states that were held in high esteem. With the many questions i personally have about AC and other comments i have read, i wonder if state regulation is the best criteria for what casino to choose. I am starting to think i would rather go to a casino where the business is doing well. If the casino is successful, there would be no need to consider any questionable actions. If the property is doing well, the math alone will make the casino all the money it needs. It has always been the rule of thumb that more competition adds value to the consumer. I wonder if that holds true in the casino business, where in some markets the volume of business has dropped and yet the cost to maintain these large properities is high. Declining revenues in AC, Tunica and many gulf coast properities may not work in our favor. Until these markets downsize the number of properities they have to better suit the volume of business they attract, they may need to keep more of each dollar gambled to compensate for the reduced business.           

[BillyJoe]

Your analogy about the "supply" of good hands in the universe is amusing, but as far as we currently understand how video poker is SUPPOSED to work, I dont think your analogy works in the literal sense.    Isnt your average VP machine supposed to be totally random, and each single deal is an independent event?  Such that, in theory anyway, a person COULD conceivably get a royal flush each time they deal/draw, right?    You get what I mean....it's like the old Coin flip cliche......you COULD get heads 50 times in a row, but the odds of heads showing up on the 51st flip is the same as the other 50, blah blah blah etc etc and so forth......

Yes, you are spot on, DB. VP is a game of independent trials, just like flipping a coin.

But, just like flipping a coin over and over, the more VP that you play (ie my universe of play on a machine), the closer the math will bring it to an expected return as dictated by the paytable.

Remember that the RF, in most VP games, is a HUGE component of the overall return on any particular machine with a set paytable. So, if an RF is hit at less than max bet, the return on that machine will be less than the paytable would suggest.

I am not critical of folks playing less than max coin on VP, but I sense that, with a poorer economy, more folks may be gravitating in that direction. If you extend my logic, there are a number of VP players playing less than max coin on a fewer number of available VP machines. The result is diminished returns at the machine level, since some of those quality hands, particularly RFs, are being secured at less than max bet.   

[DaBurglar]

It appears there is a split between those who believe all casinos operate in an absolute honest fashion and those, like myself, who question whether something is going on.  There does seem to be more who have experienced a larger loss for a vp session, as opposed to years before the financial crisis and the resulting drop in business at many casinos.  The majority of casino experts have long suggested that vp players were always better off playing at casinos that had strong state regulations. New Jersey was among the states that were held in high esteem. With the many questions i personally have about AC and other comments i have read, i wonder if state regulation is the best criteria for what casino to choose. I am starting to think i would rather go to a casino where the business is doing well. If the casino is successful, there would be no need to consider any questionable actions. If the property is doing well, the math alone will make the casino all the money it needs. It has always been the rule of thumb that more competition adds value to the consumer. I wonder if that holds true in the casino business, where in some markets the volume of business has dropped and yet the cost to maintain these large properities is high. Declining revenues in AC, Tunica and many gulf coast properities may not work in our favor. Until these markets downsize the number of properities they have to better suit the volume of business they attract, they may need to keep more of each dollar gambled to compensate for the reduced business.           great post, a lot of interesting points to consider here......and likewise with Billyjoe's last post about people playing less than max coin, this too certainly influences perception to some degree.....But none of this explains in totum  what I think we are all in agreement about:   It is HARDER these days to either win or break even playing Video Poker over the course of exteneded time (say, per year/annum).....and I am talking about straight up results, NOT influenced by comps or promotional gimmicks or special rates, etc.   If we include all that into our argument/analysis then this discussion turns into a Bob Dancer-athon, and I am all for that IF we want to discuss VP as something other than gambling for entertainment or diversion effect.Whatever is or has been happening with Video Poker results since 2009 or thereabouts, I believe that it MUST be in agreement with, or in harmony with, regulatory bodies and organizations in each state......by that I mean, IF the new FASTER computers are able to randomize cards at such a rate and in such a manner that it SOMEHOW has impacted the frequency of certain hands/results, then it must be happening in such a way that it does not violate or conflict with the regulations.      I have no idea how this is actually resolved or arrived at, but it makes sense from a general/global perspective, and must explain WHY we have never heard about anyone blowing a whistle or uncovering anything happening behind the scenes......

[olds442jetaway]

I wonder if the casinos bother or if they have a program to test correct play and the percentage of incorrect holds etc. Since these training programs are available all over and even on this site I think for gold members, it would be a piece of cake for the casino to have and study the information. They may not even bother and just look at the bottom line. Last I heard from a host, they count on a 5 percent rake from the vp machines. That sounds reasonable to me because sticky buttons, player fatigue, incorrect decisions, and pure ignorance play such an important role in vp. My own results over millions of hands fall into the 96-97 category on the 99 plus machines and I know my errors are minimal, so I still wonder why I continue to get these results and in fact have just about given up on job because of it. So far, I see other premium hands coming out about where they should, but not the Royal long term. For me, that counts for almost a 2 percent hit right there. I also really do wonder about what I just posted about yesterday having the premium hands come out with a single coin bet more often than with multiple coins in.
     I just got back from a pretty bad losing trip and I won't bore you all with the details for now.However, I had no trouble at all cashing out a couple of bucks on single coin play. In fact, I had more singles than I even needed for tips for waitresses for the wife and I for all of last evening and this morning. The bottom line for this trip is the wife and I played over 10k hands all on single line machines. Neither of us hit Deuces quads and I never even hit a Wild Royal never mind the real one. There is no recovering from that no matter what else you get during the session. I did see a Royal hit by someone else though two machines over and other premium hands on the tough games were hitting pretty good for some.

[Tedlark]

But none of this explains in totum what I think we are all in agreement about: It is HARDER these days to either win or break even playing Video Poker over the course of exteneded time (say, per year/annum).....and I am talking about straight up results, NOT influenced by comps or promotional gimmicks or special rates, etc.     DaBurglar I wouldn't say that we are all in agreement here.

[DaBurglar]

90% of us  then