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Someone please explain
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Vman96
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3298
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am
Re: Someone please explain
Without question the majority of my royals began as four suited cards off the deal such as suited A/K/Q/10, I've had a few where I needed two cards to complete the royal. I know this site says a dealt royal should occur every 1 every 650K hands on average, I've had either 5 or 6 there. One of the dealt royals was very odd, I sat down at a machine and put a $100 bill in pushed the $2 denomination and then hit max play, the machine locked up and the screen went black and said "checking memory pattern". I waited a few minutes, even tried to cash out, pushed the service button and after a few more minutes the royal popped up. I thought it was a machine malfunction but it turns out it wasn't and I was paid my $8K jackpot. I don't have the slightest idea how many royals I have seen hit at that casino but it is a lot. Regular players at that casino will all say the same thing, they hit more royals at that casino than anywhere else. Like I said hitting a royal is nothing to complain about, but they are far more common at that casino than any other casino I have ever spent time playing at, no question, no doubt. You just get more shots at hitting them there, I can't say how or why, but they do draw a lot a vp players now. I used to play a little $5 denomination vp at Harrah's but I never hit a royal there, only saw one other person hit one there. I have probably seen 10-15 $20k royals hit at that casino in a little over 4 years. I hit a royal there last week, was dealt A/K/J/10 of hearts and got the Q of hearts on the draw. I also noticed they dropped the pay tables on a few vp machines last week, not good news.
Well, this helps explain that me and others were really confused on how you phrased things. Myself and possibly others were confused on saying your Royal draws were also flush draws. I, at least, call draws to a Royal "Royal Draws", while those that cannot lead to a Royal, "Flush Draws".
Now, since I realize you meant 4 to a Royal Draws were also Flush draws too (true, but that's not the result you want), let me visit your original question. If you got more flush draws to begin with than expected, then would you get more royals? Theoretically, yes, if you got 4 suited cards more frequently, assuming everything else came at the expected rate, then yeah, you should get more Royals. But once you deviate one occurrence from random chance, all bets are off if the others will behave as statistically expected.
But of course, if the machine is "programmed" to not be a random, equally likely deck of poker cards like they are legally supposed to behave, then they could do whatever the hell they want. If IGT and casinos want to break the law, they can make hand probabilities whatever they want.
And as for the $20k Royals...well, do tons of players play $5 level? That would help obviously. That probably narrows down the casino in the area. I rarely see anyone even play $5 in Tunica. Last time that I can remember was at Roadhouse, and I watched the penny 9/6 progressive go up $0.01 for every 6 hands ($150 coin-in) HE played. The other possible place of course is the racino in West Memphis. But like the Mississippi casinos, those games are also supposed to be based off a random, equally likely poker deck. See 24.35(i) for more details.
http://www.dfa.arkansas.gov/offices/fie ... /Tech.aspx
Of course, like I say, it could be a gigantic conspiracy between casinos and major slot/VP manufacturers. But state after state writes laws that keep saying the same thing. Any machine that doesn't behave like a standard 52-card deck would is illegal nearly everywhere.
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ko king
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 670
- Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:13 pm
[QUOTE=ko king]
Without question the majority of my royals began as four suited cards off the deal such as suited A/K/Q/10, I've had a few where I needed two cards to complete the royal. I know this site says a dealt royal should occur every 1 every 650K hands on average, I've had either 5 or 6 there. One of the dealt royals was very odd, I sat down at a machine and put a $100 bill in pushed the $2 denomination and then hit max play, the machine locked up and the screen went black and said "checking memory pattern". I waited a few minutes, even tried to cash out, pushed the service button and after a few more minutes the royal popped up. I thought it was a machine malfunction but it turns out it wasn't and I was paid my $8K jackpot. I don't have the slightest idea how many royals I have seen hit at that casino but it is a lot. Regular players at that casino will all say the same thing, they hit more royals at that casino than anywhere else. Like I said hitting a royal is nothing to complain about, but they are far more common at that casino than any other casino I have ever spent time playing at, no question, no doubt. You just get more shots at hitting them there, I can't say how or why, but they do draw a lot a vp players now. I used to play a little $5 denomination vp at Harrah's but I never hit a royal there, only saw one other person hit one there. I have probably seen 10-15 $20k royals hit at that casino in a little over 4 years. I hit a royal there last week, was dealt A/K/J/10 of hearts and got the Q of hearts on the draw. I also noticed they dropped the pay tables on a few vp machines last week, not good news.
Well, this helps explain that me and others were really confused on how you phrased things. Myself and possibly others were confused on saying your Royal draws were also flush draws. I, at least, call draws to a Royal "Royal Draws", while those that cannot lead to a Royal, "Flush Draws".
Now, since I realize you meant 4 to a Royal Draws were also Flush draws too (true, but that's not the result you want), let me visit your original question. If you got more flush draws to begin with than expected, then would you get more royals? Theoretically, yes, if you got 4 suited cards more frequently, assuming everything else came at the expected rate, then yeah, you should get more Royals. But once you deviate one occurrence from random chance, all bets are off if the others will behave as statistically expected.
But of course, if the machine is "programmed" to not be a random, equally likely deck of poker cards like they are legally supposed to behave, then they could do whatever the hell they want. If IGT and casinos want to break the law, they can make hand probabilities whatever they want.
And as for the $20k Royals...well, do tons of players play $5 level? That would help obviously. That probably narrows down the casino in the area. I rarely see anyone even play $5 in Tunica. Last time that I can remember was at Roadhouse, and I watched the penny 9/6 progressive go up $0.01 for every 6 hands ($150 coin-in) HE played. The other possible place of course is the racino in West Memphis. But like the Mississippi casinos, those games are also supposed to be based off a random, equally likely poker deck. See 24.35(i) for more details.
http://www.dfa.arkansas.gov/offices/fie ... /Tech.aspx
Of course, like I say, it could be a gigantic conspiracy between casinos and major slot/VP manufacturers. But state after state writes laws that keep saying the same thing. Any machine that doesn't behave like a standard 52-card deck would is illegal nearly everywhere.[/QUOTE]
Never again will you see me call out a casino, learned that lesson a long time ago. Had a very limited amount of time today so decided to test my theory again today. Sat down at one machine, picked $1 DDB and pushed the stopwatch on my phone. I played a total of 18.37 minutes. During those 18.37 minutes I received a total of 12 four to the flush off the deal, I converted 1 of them to the flush which came after missing 10 in a row. Two of the four to the flush off the draw were for royal flushes, this time neither were converted. I really didn't expect to hit a royal today as I hit one last week there.
Without question the majority of my royals began as four suited cards off the deal such as suited A/K/Q/10, I've had a few where I needed two cards to complete the royal. I know this site says a dealt royal should occur every 1 every 650K hands on average, I've had either 5 or 6 there. One of the dealt royals was very odd, I sat down at a machine and put a $100 bill in pushed the $2 denomination and then hit max play, the machine locked up and the screen went black and said "checking memory pattern". I waited a few minutes, even tried to cash out, pushed the service button and after a few more minutes the royal popped up. I thought it was a machine malfunction but it turns out it wasn't and I was paid my $8K jackpot. I don't have the slightest idea how many royals I have seen hit at that casino but it is a lot. Regular players at that casino will all say the same thing, they hit more royals at that casino than anywhere else. Like I said hitting a royal is nothing to complain about, but they are far more common at that casino than any other casino I have ever spent time playing at, no question, no doubt. You just get more shots at hitting them there, I can't say how or why, but they do draw a lot a vp players now. I used to play a little $5 denomination vp at Harrah's but I never hit a royal there, only saw one other person hit one there. I have probably seen 10-15 $20k royals hit at that casino in a little over 4 years. I hit a royal there last week, was dealt A/K/J/10 of hearts and got the Q of hearts on the draw. I also noticed they dropped the pay tables on a few vp machines last week, not good news.
Well, this helps explain that me and others were really confused on how you phrased things. Myself and possibly others were confused on saying your Royal draws were also flush draws. I, at least, call draws to a Royal "Royal Draws", while those that cannot lead to a Royal, "Flush Draws".
Now, since I realize you meant 4 to a Royal Draws were also Flush draws too (true, but that's not the result you want), let me visit your original question. If you got more flush draws to begin with than expected, then would you get more royals? Theoretically, yes, if you got 4 suited cards more frequently, assuming everything else came at the expected rate, then yeah, you should get more Royals. But once you deviate one occurrence from random chance, all bets are off if the others will behave as statistically expected.
But of course, if the machine is "programmed" to not be a random, equally likely deck of poker cards like they are legally supposed to behave, then they could do whatever the hell they want. If IGT and casinos want to break the law, they can make hand probabilities whatever they want.
And as for the $20k Royals...well, do tons of players play $5 level? That would help obviously. That probably narrows down the casino in the area. I rarely see anyone even play $5 in Tunica. Last time that I can remember was at Roadhouse, and I watched the penny 9/6 progressive go up $0.01 for every 6 hands ($150 coin-in) HE played. The other possible place of course is the racino in West Memphis. But like the Mississippi casinos, those games are also supposed to be based off a random, equally likely poker deck. See 24.35(i) for more details.
http://www.dfa.arkansas.gov/offices/fie ... /Tech.aspx
Of course, like I say, it could be a gigantic conspiracy between casinos and major slot/VP manufacturers. But state after state writes laws that keep saying the same thing. Any machine that doesn't behave like a standard 52-card deck would is illegal nearly everywhere.[/QUOTE]
Never again will you see me call out a casino, learned that lesson a long time ago. Had a very limited amount of time today so decided to test my theory again today. Sat down at one machine, picked $1 DDB and pushed the stopwatch on my phone. I played a total of 18.37 minutes. During those 18.37 minutes I received a total of 12 four to the flush off the deal, I converted 1 of them to the flush which came after missing 10 in a row. Two of the four to the flush off the draw were for royal flushes, this time neither were converted. I really didn't expect to hit a royal today as I hit one last week there.
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onemoretry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3050
- Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm
Never again will you see me call out a casino, learned that lesson a long time ago. Had a very limited amount of time today so decided to test my theory again today. Sat down at one machine, picked $1 DDB and pushed the stopwatch on my phone. I played a total of 18.37 minutes. During those 18.37 minutes I received a total of 12 four to the flush off the deal, I converted 1 of them to the flush which came after missing 10 in a row. Two of the four to the flush off the draw were for royal flushes, this time neither were converted. I really didn't expect to hit a royal today as I hit one last week there.
While it is nice to know, down to 1/100 of a minute, how long the session was, it would be better to know how many hands were played.
At 700 hands per hour, that would be 214 hands, and the dealt four to the flush frequency 1 in 17.8.
At 800 hands per hour , the frequency works out to 1 in 20.4, while 900 and 1000 hands per hour work out to 1 in 23 and 1 in 25.5 respectively.
I don't know if this supports your theory or not.
Out of curiosity, while playing a 5 line machine at Seneca Niagara on Wednesday, I tracked dealt four to the flushes, and flushes made on the subsequent draw.
In slightly over two hours, I had 1540 deals. I was dealt "four to the flush" 43 times. I used the quotation marks because, in my accounting, that does not include hands that were four to the royal, four to a straight flush, or even those containing a high pair.
In that session, I was dealt four to a straight flush four times, and four to the royal zero times. I did not count the number of high pairs that also contained four flush cards (there were, perhaps, a half dozen or so).
All things considered the dealt four to a flush frequency came to about 1 in 29.
I made 37 flushes on the flush draws. That works out to 1 per 5.8 attempts.
In the session, I twice experienced a complete whiff in consecutive tries, i.e., at least 10 consecutive unsuccessful individual draws. Later in the day, I did it on three consecutive draws.
What does all this mean? Not much, I guess. In fact, I wonder why I bothered to write it all down, but since I did, here it is.
While it is nice to know, down to 1/100 of a minute, how long the session was, it would be better to know how many hands were played.
At 700 hands per hour, that would be 214 hands, and the dealt four to the flush frequency 1 in 17.8.
At 800 hands per hour , the frequency works out to 1 in 20.4, while 900 and 1000 hands per hour work out to 1 in 23 and 1 in 25.5 respectively.
I don't know if this supports your theory or not.
Out of curiosity, while playing a 5 line machine at Seneca Niagara on Wednesday, I tracked dealt four to the flushes, and flushes made on the subsequent draw.
In slightly over two hours, I had 1540 deals. I was dealt "four to the flush" 43 times. I used the quotation marks because, in my accounting, that does not include hands that were four to the royal, four to a straight flush, or even those containing a high pair.
In that session, I was dealt four to a straight flush four times, and four to the royal zero times. I did not count the number of high pairs that also contained four flush cards (there were, perhaps, a half dozen or so).
All things considered the dealt four to a flush frequency came to about 1 in 29.
I made 37 flushes on the flush draws. That works out to 1 per 5.8 attempts.
In the session, I twice experienced a complete whiff in consecutive tries, i.e., at least 10 consecutive unsuccessful individual draws. Later in the day, I did it on three consecutive draws.
What does all this mean? Not much, I guess. In fact, I wonder why I bothered to write it all down, but since I did, here it is.
