Major mistake?

[markinca]

   OMT I've tried it both ways over the years and even though I haven't journaled my results it just seems to me that I personally have done better by not holding the kicker. But, who knows what my next 50 years of video poker play will bring me...

The problem is there's no way you can actually know this. Who knows how many 4000 credit hands you could have made by holding your kicker.

I mean, if we're going down that road, do you break up full houses to try for the quads (ALL full houses, not just aces full). If not, why not? Why do you make the correct play every time here (holding the full house) but you choose not to make the correct play concerning AAA+k? I just don't get it.

If your answer is that the swings involved in holding AAA+k are too high, then the rebuttal to that is just as simple: Don't play a high-variance game like TDB where you have to make choices like that.

[alpax]

If your answer is that the swings involved in holding AAA+k are too high, then the rebuttal to that is just as simple: Don't play a high-variance game like TDB where you have to make choices like that.

Though I did tell Ted that I will no longer mind my business with TDB, but there are two more cents to add.

In TDB, the variance component for 4 Aces + Kicker itself is 44.94. For the 4 2s, 3s, 4s + kicker, it is as high as 27.47. Both are more than the Royal which is at 16.08.

Thus this game largely relies on the player to hit enough quads+kicker to have a favorable outcome, or else it will be disasterous. When those quads are more than 70 percent of the games variance, you go for it all costs and put yourself in the best situations to get them. Being over or under royaled means less in this game.

Otherwise for low variance games, the Royal Flush is the highest variance component so the player's outcome is dependant on if they are over or under royalled.

[Tedlark]

markinca - you're right, there's no way to actually know that. It's exactly the reason why I answered the way I did; because I do not keep a journal then there is really no way for me to know. For me, making the wrong move at the right time turns out to be the right move.

[markinca]

   markinca - you're right, there's no way to actually know that. It's exactly the reason why I answered the way I did; because I do not keep a journal then there is really no way for me to know. For me, making the wrong move at the right time turns out to be the right move.

No, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. Keeping a journal wouldn't help you with what would have happened had you kept a kicker.

You say making the wrong move at the right time turns out to be the right move. There's no possible way to know this. Yea, maybe you've made a few AAAA's by keeping AAA, but who knows how many AWAK's you would have made instead had you made the right move?

[Tedlark]

I completely understand what you are saying. Getting back to the first sentence in your first post in this thread:

"The problem is there's no way you can actually know this."

It has never been a problem for me but it seems to be for you. I have never put much thought into how many AWAKS I may or may have hit holding AAA without kicker vs. holding AAA + kicker.

If you think about it, there is a possible way to know it. I play multi line games (10 play is normal)so for every one of those 10 hands that I didn't catch an ace AND a kicker also means that I wouldn't have hit it holding trip aces and a kicker.

[markinca]

If you think about it, there is a possible way to know it. I play multi line games (10 play is normal)so for every one of those 10 hands that I didn't catch an ace AND a kicker also means that I wouldn't have hit it holding trip aces and a kicker.

I may be wrong on this, but I was under the impression that the cards are constantly being shuffled until the second you hit the 'draw' button. So the extra half second or whatever it takes for you to hold the kicker would completely change all your draws.

[notes1]

I do not recall a single time that ted ever complained about the machines being rigged, about not getting his fair share of premium hands or telling anyone what game to play or how to play. he has said he often plays higher variance games and sometimes does not play the 'correct strategy'. it is his money and he his not telling anyone what to do.

why is it that those who believe only the math dictates what/how to play feel so compelled to correct him? are they guaranteeing better results? why do so few of the math folks post their actual results, so we can see how you are doing?

[Tedlark]

So if it takes an extra half second to hold the kicker big deal. I usually wait anyway before hitting draw.

I've never cried over missed hands, whether it be missed premium 4oaks or 4 to the royal and whiffing too.

[markinca]

I do not recall a single time that ted ever complained about the machines being rigged, about not getting his fair share of premium hands or telling anyone what game to play or how to play. he has said he often plays higher variance games and sometimes does not play the 'correct strategy'. it is his money and he his not telling anyone what to do.

Huh? I've never told anyone what they need to do with their money. I'm just about awareness. If someone wants to hold AAA instead of AAA+k, I just want them to be aware that they're giving up quite a bit of value doing that. I don't know if they know just how much they're giving up.

But if they still want to keep the AAA, you're right - it's their money, I don't care. It's like the blackjack players I've played with who stand on a 13 vs. 10 because they 'just have a feeling'. I don't start debating them at the table that they made a bad play. But I do wonder if they're aware of how much they're giving up by doing that.

Blackjack, as with video poker and most other games, has a correct move on every play. If you choose not to make this play, you're just giving more theoretical money to the casino than they're already taking. If you're just playing recreationally and don't care, then hey, do whatever floats your boat. But if you're looking to try to squeeze as much EV as possible out of the game, then you should make sure you're making the correct play as often as possible. I'm in the second group of players, and I didn't realize there were so many players in the first group.

I do notice though, that a lot of players in this form suffer from a lot of results-oriented thinking. That because, say, you've made a lot of royals after holding AT that it mustn't be so bad. That's just flat-out wrong. Math doesn't work that way. A mathematically poor decision is still a poor decision, no matter what results.

[notes1]

But if they still want to keep the AAA, you're right - it's their money, I don't care. It's like the blackjack players I've played with who stand on a 13 vs. 10 because they 'just have a feeling'. .

I think there is a big difference between not holding the kicker and the BJ example you gave. and, who said anything about having a 'feeling'.

most of the comments I read from those who do not save the kicker have noted they knew the 'correct' play, they simply choose to play differently.