Take a look at this...

[DaBurglar]

vman, it isnt that hard, if speed is not a priority....if you notice, my AVERAGE daily hand tally is about 2500 (not very many if you think about it), but of course i didnt spend the EXACT amount of time every day playing the EXACT same number of hands, but still..... I play (usually) slowly and methodically, keeping errors to NIL and so I remember the results, which, every 40-50 hands, I mark down in a notebook....I have been doing this for almost as long as I play VP, so I am very good at it and efficient.   it really si not that big of a deal or hard, again, if SPEED is not a major concern.  All you really need to do is count in your head, and remember the few exceptional hands (like quads) and its easy..... And YES, now that you see just HOW crappy my results have been over an extended period of time you know the reasoning and spirit behind most of my posts!!!   I'll give you some more insight:  several times during this extended debacle, I was playing next to complete strangers, who, during the course of both our play, stopped to watch me playing and dealing hand after hand after hand...with NOTHING coming up.   They were quite undertsndably shocked as I was.....of course, none of these people were exactly tearing it up either so they just cashed out their tix and left after they saw me crapping out.  it was almost funny..... I have been playing VP for 20 years, and the past few months (well, more like past 6 months) in AC have been the absolute worst I have ever ever seen! As for the NJ gaming commission, as I have already posted numerous times, I have about as much faith in them as an Afghanistan CSI team investigating a domestic violence murder.  In other words, none.....I've already asked around and they receive literally HUNDREDS of calls/complaints a week regarding machines in AC casinos.....every casino in AC has a floor space devoted to the NJ commission, but if you bother to notice or even stake out these offices/spaces, they are NEVER staffed anymore due to budget cuts and personnel shortages.  My longest streak of bust hands was 33 on a 8/5 BP machine in Resorts, closely followed by two streaks of 31 hands at AC club and the TAJ.    One time at the TAJ, I lost 150 bucks on a 25 cent 9/6 DB game in less than 20 minutes.....HORRIBLE considering how slow I actually play when keeping stats! I do know people wh videotape their play via phone with a spouse/helper doing the recording, but thats not useful if your trying to record stats because you have to watch the action TWICE, which is extremely inefficient.  

[Vman96]

and so I remember the results, which, every 40-50 hands, I mark down in a notebook


So the strongest stat you claim could be off due to miscounting (the quads/full house stats I would expect to be miscounted less). Not saying it's totally inaccurate, but without a lot of practice, recording in this manner can lead to significant error. So personally I would be writing the result down for every hand if I tried to do it, even though it's definitely a lot more time consuming. May do that some day if I'm really looking to slow the hell down out of my play in a session...lol

[Tedlark]

[QUOTE=Tedlark]  Burglar, roulette is "gay"? Can you get any more offensive?
Maybe a gay Native American playing roulette ? [/QUOTE] I was wondering if the native americans would somehow get drug into this conversation too billyjoe.
 
  After reading DaBurglar's recent posts about how every card turn, every hand outcome, every coin drop, is recorded and if it all ends up for naught anyway then why continue to play? Take a break, change games, go to a movie, take up knitting, anything but video poker.

[BillyJoe]

I have been doing this for almost as long as I play VP, so I am very good at it and efficient.   it really si not that big of a deal or hard, again, if SPEED is not a major concern.  All you really need to do is count in your head, and remember the few exceptional hands (like quads) and its easy..... 

Burglar, you should switch to Blackjack, and card count. If you can do that as well as you keep stats in your head for VP, you could make a fortune..... Seriously..

[Vman96]

This is what 55,170 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better "should" look like.

                         Results
Sims               5000.0000000
ROI %                 -0.4560956
SD                     4.4175419
Sim. Lose %           61.9600000
Sim. Win %            36.2200000


$`Win/Loss Summary (at $1.25 per hand)
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
-3639.0 -1254.0 -446.2 -335.6   450.0 6442.0

$`Summary of Non-paying Hands`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
29560   30020   30090   30090   30170   30510

$`Summary of Quads`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
   94.0   122.0   130.0   130.1   138.0   173.0

$`Summary of Full Houses`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
538.0   618.0   635.0   635.2   652.0   723.0

Note that NONE of the statistics DaBurglar quoted, fell within the range 5000 sessions of 55,170 hands each. Even the full-house stat, which he claimed "was reasonable". It's actually nearly impossible if the game is random. The highest amount of Full Houses I got was 723 vs. his 998. As for the non-winners, the most the simulation saw was 30,510 vs. 40,274. And for quads the least the simulation saw was 94 vs. 65.

So if I found data results like this, I would stop playing and at least try to contact the gaming commission. I still have faith in every location that I have played that it is still random. And also if this was true in AC, Roveer would definitely have got hammered at the levels he plays. I could be wrong, but I don't get the impression he is having unexpected results.

[Tedlark]

  Great post Vman. Are we missing something here, do we know if DaBurglar is following expert play?

[Vman96]

  Great post Vman. Are we missing something here, do we know if DaBurglar is following expert play?

He claims to make very few mistakes, but to be honest, common mistakes from an average player wouldn't change these results very much at all, especially for the quads/fullhouse numbers because even braindead players know to hold pairs.

[Tedlark]

[QUOTE=Tedlark]   Great post Vman. Are we missing something here, do we know if DaBurglar is following expert play?

He claims to make very few mistakes, but to be honest, common mistakes from an average player wouldn't change these results very much at all, especially for the quads/fullhouse numbers because even braindead players know to hold pairs.[/QUOTE]

 I agree with what you said but I doubt DaBurglar's claim of making few mistakes though.

[New2vp]

Good post, Vman.  Way to insert a little sanity into the discussion.998 full houses (close to what you'd expect, within acceptable range)
This is a bit more than 14 standard deviations from the mean.  To put this is in perspective, being more than 6 standard deviations from the mean only happens about once in a half billion observations (Some of you may have heard of the Six Sigma approach coined by Motorola).  As Vman implied, even with a trillion simulations, he would not have been able to get this extreme of a result.  But I think we can excuse DaBurglar from calling such an unreasonable amount within an acceptable range if his math skills were relatively limited.By contrast, Vman's extreme values were 3.51 standard deviations above and 3.87 standard deviations below the expected value.  With 5000 simulations, on average, we would expect the minimum and maximum to be 3.54 standard deviations above and below the mean, so Vman's work looks reasonable.I am not a programmer, but I am extremely computer
literate and savvy....I have participted in many software installations
and testing, and data analysis and extraction is one of my fortes.  I
know how simple and easy it is to manipulate and influence a typical RNG
results, and if any of you have played any computer simulation or
strategy games, you know what I mean.Uh-oh.  Well, we seem to have a contradiction here.  Would a data-savvy expert claim that a result that is more than 14 standard deviations from the mean to be within an acceptable range?  Unless...maybe introductory statistics falls outside the range of data analysis?  On the other hand, it is probably even simpler and easier to manipulate figures in a post to a forum than it is to manipulate a RNG in a regulated industry and get away with it, especially if even amateur analyses were able to find discrepancies such as are claimed here.  I am not saying that is what happened, but it will be interesting to see the explanation.

[DaBurglar]

I've triple checked my results 998 full houses is what I got, same with the number of quads.... If you cant keep 40 to 50 hand resuls in your head then I do not know what to tell you.....even if you do not remember every single hand, surely you can remember your starting dollar value, then look at the finish value, and go from there....this is not hard. At the rate I play, I am positive I make very few mistakes.....i have watche dothers with their lightning fast play and they make errors they do not even realize (or maybe they do but dont care....) Your sim results are exactly what I would expect, but they are NOT what I got when I played.....  Go to AC yourself if it suits you and see what happens, just try to play the same games I did so we do not drag other possible issues into this debate. Obviously, if I am going to AC to play VP, I want to be successful, and as I have stated MANY times before, in other VP markets I have received exactly what a player would expect (in fact as I mentioned before, I have enjoyed decent SUCCESS/Profit, in both Vegas and Reno in past years....) And yes, I am planning on playing elsewhere (obviously, who wouldnt....)   But still, the proverbial "Car wreck syndrome takes over", and these sh**ty results, while horrendous and probably sheer abnormal anomalies, behoove a serious player to keep playing "just to see exactly what the hell is going on..." Besides, why do you think I stick to 25 cents?   if that were dollars, I wouldnt be posting about it, you would have heard of some VP player rolling his chair off the Marina with a cinder block in his lap. Give me your address, I will send you my smokey smelling, cranberry juice stained note pads with my results scribbled down on them....