How much do we still not know?

[JT]

Take this, statistically, for what it's worth (which is probably nothing) but the thing that I've noticed most is the number of "Hey, look what I hit" posts and pictures, both on here and on VPFree, has dropped DRAMATICALLY over the past several months. I know that from my own experience, I had a streak like I've never had before of winning last year, from March through about June, then come July, it's like a switch has been flipped off and I've hit nothing at all since then. But it seemed we'd get photo posts of handpays daily for a while... and now?   Hardly any.   I don't know what that means, but it does seem odd that ALL of the VP community seems to be in a slump at the same time?   Or is it just that people are sick of posting pictures?    

[DaBurglar]

Onemoretry:  I agree with your math and the point you make based on the MATH, but the problem is, there is much more to this whole issue / discussion and your oversimplified logic still does not prove or disprove anything;   What we are really concerned about here is whether or not casinos, SOMEHOW and to what Degree of prevalence and time length, have their VP machines set to deal MORE losing hands (or fewer winning hands) than from times past.  Some people believe they do, some do not;  some believe (like me) that they COULD do this but are unsure whether they have or have not;  some believe this would NEVER happen because the regulations say it cant, or the Gaming commissions would NEVER allow this. Some of us rely on data, some do not.  Some simply look at their bankrolls as the final word.....and some do not care one way or another, as long as they get free hot dogs and a room with a toilet that isnt clogged or full of someone else's turds. Some of us believe the gaming commissions are foolproof ways to ensure everything remains kosher, while others see them as fallible bureaucracies subject to the same pitfalls and limitations of any government agency, and still others (like me) believe that they vary GREATLY from state to state such that Nevada's (the best) makes Jersey's (the shakiest) look silly.... Some of us assume casinos and their corporate HQs always act and behave in a responsible, reasonable and logical, law abiding manner, while some of us think they are greedy evil asshats no better than the robber barons of the 1880s railroad industry; and still some of us (like me) believe the truth differs from corporation to corporation, depending on the PERSON or PERSON(s) in charge and what finacial shape they are in, and that the actual, very real ABYSMAL shape of many balance sheets these days makes it dangerous to assume or preclude a company (or person) from doing ANYTHING. what we are talking about is something far more broad and complex and nebulous:   This is about a BUSINESS, run by PEOPLE for other PEOPLE in different STATES and CITIES (and countries) where the end result or product (or "commodity", take your pick) varies by definition and components based on whomever you happen to be talking to!  (what I mean is, the "product" is entertainment if you are a player, or it could be "distraction" or it could be "a lot of free sh*t" etc ..... if you are a casino, it might be MONEY or it could be much broader, like "corporate growth" or net asset appreciation...) My point is it is not that simple, I wish it were.....I wish someone like Shadowman, who makes the better, more consistent posts and arguments in favor of there being NO WAY for VP to be rigged could convince me that my questions and doubts and personal experiences are all null and void (maybe they are); or that all the people I know and talk to who either agree with my conclusions or who actually have seen evidence that suggests a casino can rig a VP machine are 100% full of fecal matter.

[jetermacaw]

Also, for the poster that missed 30 flushes in a row, look for this type
of player bias.  When playing 10 play, you get a four flush and miss
all 10 flushes.  Unusual, but not surprisingly so, about 12%.  Only then
does someone start counting missed 4 flushes.  Now if you miss 30 the
odds are really only the same as missing 20.  These odds are about 1 in
70, not remarkable at all and expected to occur several times in an
evening of play.This would be me and I was playing single hand, and being a newbie if I hadn't read this thread the day before I played I would have thought missing 30 flushes was the norm.

[onemoretry]

Onemoretry:  I agree with your math and the point you make based on the MATH, but the problem is, there is much more to this whole issue / discussion and your oversimplified logic still does not prove or disprove anything


 I wasn't trying to prove or disprove anything.  What I was trying to do was point out that if whiffing on 30 consecutive one card flush draws, which is not all that improbable, causes you to begin doubting the integrity of a machine, you might want to rethink the issue.. 

[DaBurglar]

Well, you are saying it proves something if a person must "rethink"....But I'm not basing my own opinions or conclusions on 30 whiffs in a row, I personally need a lot more evidence than that, but it does fall into line with what I (and a number of friends) have experienced lately, and the fact is over the past year I have seen a lot worse....Still, 30 whiffs on flushes on a single line is pretty horrible, and it is not the same (despite our agreement on the math) as missing Royals.   Flush draws are far more common than ROYAL draws. c'mon......apples and Hand grenades!Look at it this way, When you repeatedly miss draws of flushes, straights, full houses and even quads, your bankroll disappears and game is over.....HIT an actual Royal, you probably get up and leave (for a while at least) with your winnings!    if you hang around long enough to MISS 30 actual individual hands where you had a 3-to-a-royal draw that is no doubt a FAR longer session than one where you missed 30 plain ol' flushes 4 to a draw (I would hope so anyway lol)

[jetermacaw]

A little update, went back to AC last weekend, stayed at Caesars, received a great room upgrade just by asking [maybe they knew about the 30 missed 4 to the flush draws at Showboat], first hand dealt on first machine 9/6 JB, 4 to the flush, it hits and I start laughing. Little old lady sitting next to asks whats so funny, I tell her what happened at Showboat and she says I never play there, I asked why and she gives me this wry look and says u know why. U got to laugh.

[DaBurglar]

I just returned from 10 days (yes TEN) in AC, where at various times i was joined off and on by friends and relatives.  I personally played exactly 30,545 hands of VP, at a variety of places and a variety of games.  all hands this trip were 25 cent denom I witnessed a further 20,000 hands played by other people I was with and whom I watched intently. net results:   I lost 890 bucks total, a loss rate of about 3% of total coin in, not at all disastrous, but at no point was I ever "up"....I witnessed as my family and friends lost another 590 bucks, and again, no one was ever really "up"No royals were hit;   I hit quad aces 6 times playing JOB and DW, never when playing, bonus, Double bonus or double double bonus.....talk about annoying! something just isnt right with AC, I mean seriously.....I used to be just like shadowman and a lot of others here, totally convinced Video Poker was legit and straight up....now, I just dunno.... I have exhausted looking over and comparing results from the past several years in AC versus the prior 8 or 9 years all over the place (vegas, reno, and a lot of other remote casinos everywhere.)   it is NOT a simple matter of paytables. I ran tabulations that simply compare winning versus non winning hands, and break it down further by Royals, QUADS and SFs.   Prior to 2009, my zero value hand rate over 8 prior years = 60.3%   I hit Royals about once every 35K hands and quads were once every 423 hands....since 2009 and about 350,000 hands (about a third of what I played the prior eight, or what i recorded anyways, almost all in AC), my zero value busted hand rate is exactly 72%!  Royals are 1 in 90K  and quads are about half what they were (1 in 805).... What do ya think of dem apples (rotten apples actually)???? I am running a profit in Vegas, a total bust in AC where i have played most of my recent VP....what else can I conclude>????  the difference is just too stark.....

[ko king]

I just returned from 10 days (yes TEN) in AC, where at various times i was joined off and on by friends and relatives.  I personally played exactly 30,545 hands of VP, at a variety of places and a variety of games.  all hands this trip were 25 cent denom
 
I witnessed a further 20,000 hands played by other people I was with and whom I watched intently.
 
net results:   I lost 890 bucks total, a loss rate of about 3% of total coin in, not at all disastrous, but at no point was I ever "up"....I witnessed as my family and friends lost another 590 bucks, and again, no one was ever really "up"
No royals were hit;   I hit quad aces 6 times playing JOB and DW, never when playing, bonus, Double bonus or double double bonus.....talk about annoying!
 
something just isnt right with AC, I mean seriously.....I used to be just like shadowman and a lot of others here, totally convinced Video Poker was legit and straight up....now, I just dunno....
 
I have exhausted looking over and comparing results from the past several years in AC versus the prior 8 or 9 years all over the place (vegas, reno, and a lot of other remote casinos everywhere.)   it is NOT a simple matter of paytables.
 
I ran tabulations that simply compare winning versus non winning hands, and break it down further by Royals, QUADS and SFs.   Prior to 2009, my zero value hand rate over 8 prior years = 60.3%   I hit Royals about once every 35K hands and quads were once every 423 hands....since 2009 and about 350,000 hands (about a third of what I played the prior eight, or what i recorded anyways, almost all in AC), my zero value busted hand rate is exactly 72%!  Royals are 1 in 90K  and quads are about half what they were (1 in 805)....
 
What do ya think of dem apples (rotten apples actually)????
 
I am running a profit in Vegas, a total bust in AC where i have played most of my recent VP....what else can I conclude>????  the difference is just too stark.....


Even with all the information and records you kept I doubt you could do anything other than just quit playing there. I played at a casino that claimed to have standard Class III vp, the state regs even said they did but you can't convince me that's what it is. What do I know though, I only played about 650K hands there and that's no where near enough to come to any definate conclusion and I was the only one complaining. Never mind the fact that I missed by huge amounts on every single quality quad hand but somehow was able to hit plenty of royals and straight flushes, I actually had 3 dealt royals while playing there. I even knew how I achieved those results, I was getting 4 to the flush off the deal far above the rate of 1 every 36 hands. It was easy to notice and I had a freind keep up with it on 2 different occasions, the first time I had 61 for the hour and the second time he counted 58. I even got one of the floor attendents to watch and keep up with it one time, she counted 19 in a little over 15 minutes. I knew why the quality hands were suffering but in the end I couldn't do anything about it.

[williejoe]

this is my first post to this site. i'm a little supprised that no one has mentioned ways in which vp machince can be tecnically "legal" ( i.e. within state regulations and the manufactures specs ) and still be "managed" from a programming standpoint to favor the casino.
i have been playing vp for about twenty years-----i play mainly vegas and biloxi. i probably play tens of thousands of hands a year ( i'm retired ) i'm a player who sets specifics limits on a given machine. in a typical three hour session i will play ten to thirty machines, depending on how "hot" a given machine is.
while i do belive the machines in vegas and biloxi are technically "honest" from a rng/programming view----i am convinced that in some way these machines are "managed" in such a way that they do not violate any regs, but do favor the casinos. this could occur through how the dealt cards are displayed, how and when the machines are programmed to "reseed" or what particular pseudo rng program the machine has been programed to run and maybe switching to a different algoritums that places the machine in a very differt part of the algorithm's string
i've experienced way too may times where my sessions where such that most of the machines were hitting and then the next day or maybe hours later your couldn't hit four of a kind on any machine-----in other words a mass cold spell effectiving every vp machine in the casino. this could last for hours or a day. something is going on, but i just don't know what. i do have a strong background in math/statistics and realize that ramdomness can do strange things------but there are definitley other vectors here at work.

[Tedlark]

  I will get looking into this but I need to wait until my aluminum hat comes back from the dry cleaners.