How much do we still not know?

[williejoe]

well, tedlark----i'm going to help you out. i didn't want to do this----but since no one on this forum in the past several years that i've been reading it has shed any real light on the mysteries of vp------looks like i'm going to have to give you a little insite. no need for you don your tin hat and go see the "wizzard of odds"
while i'm not an expert on algorithms, i did head up a department for a major heath care company that developed and marketed very sofisticated electonic monitoring devices. i had a number of software engineers working for me, so i know a little about the area of algorithum development. in discussions with some of my old softward buddies who also play vp---we have pretty much decided we know what is probably going on that explains a lot of the seeming mysteries and experiences that are reported on this site.
to keep it short----a significant aspect of how the casinos "tilt" the game has to do which how and when the pseudo rng is seeded. remember, the algorithum generates a truly large string of seemingly random numbers-----but this string does repeat and segments within the string repeats-----i.e, it is a determinate----if you knew the algorithum and given some of the string----your could with 100% confidence predict the next sting of numbers. some parts of this long number string reprsent poor or cold areas as it relates to translating into good hits----whereas other parts of the string results in much better or "hot" hands. remember this string will only change if the machine choses a different rng algorithm. which the casino can do and sitll be "fair and lawful". but given, a specific algorithm like the mersenne twister for example----igt and the casino can know exactly how and when to reseed the machine to position it to a part of the number sting that is hot or cold in terms of reprsenting good hands.
while this reseeding definitely effects short term results-----it can be done in such a way as to, over time, leave the truly long term , or theoretical, return and the long term matematical legal cretirial for randomness intact. but remember---no one really plays for the true long term-----so while the computer runs through the math and determins the software algorithum is in spec for randomness----the how and when of managing the seeding process can give the casino a real edge over the vp player that doesn't play forever. so yes, vp is matematically random and fair---and adheards to the nevada regulations. but the payout of vp machines can be "managed" beyond the paytable. may the kickers be with you.

[edog743]

I guess he showed you Ted.

[shadowman]

Williejoe, according to IGT they use a continuous shuffle mechanism in most areas. This means the deterministic output of the RNG is essentially nulled. Any individual player is only sampling one out of thousands of possible hands available over the time period between hands.

Just taking sip of coffee, rubbing the screen, talking to your neighbor or whatever will change your timing and every hand you are likely to see after that point. Taking a 5 minute break is equivalent to reseeding the RNG.

The fact is you described VP machines the way they used to work. However, a group of clever individuals figured this out and developed a technique to predict RFs. They were quite successful but got greedy and caught.

http://media.wiley.com/product_data/exc ... 569597.pdf

[Tedlark]

  I am so relieved and I lied. I said my aluminum hat was at the cleaners but in reality it's actually at the pawn shop. Its been there a while and I can't come up with the cash to get it out so I walk by the front window of the pawn shop once a week and see if its still there. I know one day I'll have the money to retrieve it but because I also had my pseudo casino manager voodoo doll at the pawn shop and I HAD to get that one out first. I keep checking Ticketmaster for tickets to the Elvis Returns concert because we all know he still works at that 7-11 in Michigan.
 
  willyjoe what does make me curious though is why you waited so long to post this groundbreaking information? You mentioned that you have been reading this forum for the past several years but you just started posting today?
 
  Now I'm hungry, does anyone have any tacos they'd be willing to share? 

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=shadowman]Williejoe, according to IGT they use a continuous shuffle mechanism in most areas. This means the deterministic output of the RNG is essentially nulled. Any individual player is only sampling one out of thousands of possible hands available over the time period between hands.

Just taking sip of coffee, rubbing the screen, talking to your neighbor or whatever will change your timing and every hand you are likely to see after that point. Taking a 5 minute break is equivalent to reseeding the RNG.

The fact is you described VP machines the way they used to work. However, a group of clever individuals figured this out and developed a technique to predict RFs. They were quite successful but got greedy and caught.

http://media.wiley.com/product_data/exc ... 569597.pdf[/QUOTE]
First off - williejoe is NOT BillyJoe in disguise, so let's not have any wild theories started.
 
But Shadow - thanks for posting that link. That was a very interesting article.
 
One thing that I am not clear on, though, is the effect of "continuous shuffling" and "seeding the RNG" on the cards that are dealt and drawn in VP.  
 
I once heard the output of the RNG described as bricks, each one a particular card,  laid end-to-end from LA to NYC. Within this analogy, can you describe how the shuffling and the seeding of these bricks would work?    

[faygo]

Trial balloon Ted. DE Je Vu all over again.

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, I posted a description similar to your bricks a couple of years ago. Think of yourself flying over those bricks, swooping down and selecting five bricks out of the thousands you pass by. You keep flying and toss some bricks away and then swoop down and select replacement bricks at that time having passed by thousands more bricks in the process.

That would be the effect of a continuous shuffle.

[BillyJoe]

Billyjoe, I posted a description similar to your bricks a couple of years ago. Think of yourself flying over those bricks, swooping down and selecting five bricks out of the thousands you pass by. You keep flying and toss some bricks away and then swoop down and select replacement bricks at that time having passed by thousands more bricks in the process.

That would be the effect of a continuous shuffle.
Thanks, Shadow. I probably remember the brick analogy from your post.
 
So then, the 'seeding' would be where I started my fly over, like Dallas,TX ?
 
If this is so, is it possible to have no bricks with Quads or an RF between Dallas and Atlanta? This would mean that the 'seeding' could get you into a 'dead area' as far as premium hands, while still conforming to regulations, since the premium hands exist from Atlanta to New York.  
 
Thoughts ?

[davidearl]

[QUOTE=shadowman]Billyjoe, I posted a description similar to your bricks a couple of years ago. Think of yourself flying over those bricks, swooping down and selecting five bricks out of the thousands you pass by. You keep flying and toss some bricks away and then swoop down and select replacement bricks at that time having passed by thousands more bricks in the process. That would be the effect of a continuous shuffle.
Thanks, Shadow. I probably remember the brick analogy from your post.
 
So then, the 'seeding' would be where I started my fly over, like Dallas,TX ?
 




     There are no bricks with quads or RFs in Dallas or Atlanta, for sure!

[shadowman]

Thanks, Shadow. I probably remember the brick analogy from your post.
 
So then, the 'seeding' would be where I started my fly over, like Dallas,TX ?
 
If this is so, is it possible to have no bricks with Quads or an RF between Dallas and Atlanta? This would mean that the 'seeding' could get you into a 'dead area' as far as premium hands, while still conforming to regulations, since the premium hands exist from Atlanta to New York.  
 
Thoughts ?

You would not see any dead zone that large. You might see a dead zone from Dallas to Fort Worth but not much longer. I believe most of the software tutors do not use a continuous shuffle technique. They would be a good example of what you might have seen in the past.