What is the liklihood of Casino cheating at VP?

[Tedlark]

  Every year I keep telling people that the Chicago Cubs will win the World Series. One of these years I will be, at least, a little vindicated. Ah to dream  Da Impossible Dream; to love Da Impossible Love...
 
  Da Bears. It's a Chicago thing.

[ko king]

Wow, some great, interesting posts in this thread, and I am starting to feel at least a little vindicated, that other players at other markets (besides AC, but also including others at AC) are seeing the "funky" results that I have seen, in the form of long, repeated cold streaks and return percentages well below what paytables imply.  
 
KO KING:    Your game of 98.9% that gave you a 95% after 125,000 hands, I can understand your frustration....but actually this SPECIFIC example is not quite in the realm of abysmal that I have been talking about, nor is it as bad as what I believe YOU think is happening as well.....a 95% return after "only" 125k hands on 98% machine is not all that shocking, unless you received that same return or lower year after year, OR if you had played 1,250,000 hands instead, then  that example would standout.   I think you are 100% correct in your conclusions though, and when your combine your results with what everyone else is seeing then it fits!       I guess I am just saying I would actually be :happy: if I had a 95% return on my play the last 3 years in AC, because my results, and my duds, and my LACK of premium hands, has my overall total return percent so low it defies everything you;d expect!   I laready mentioned in other posts how I have seen dud rates in the 65 to 70 percent range, and higher, on hand volumes in high 6 figures approaching 7 figures!   When the normal dud rate should be 55%!       And the actual return percentage is even below the lowest SLOT return percentage for me on certain Video Poker games and casinos in AC.
 
Its unbelievable but as I have said and now know, I am not alone....something is way way skewed in VP land, in a way that NEVER existed before.
 

[QUOTE=chucknorris5]  It is noteworthy that the "Godfather of Video Poker", Bob Dancer in his January 14th article laments the degradation of video poker from what it used to be.

What exactly is Bob dancer saying is happening in Video Poker these days?   Surely if he is saying things have deteriorated in the last several years, this has weight and import?
 
If he is attributing it solely to poor paytables and comps, if that is the extent of his observations, then I do not agree......something more is afoot.   But if Bob has indeed cited other changes or reasons for VP degradation, I am very interested to know[/QUOTE]
In hindsight I wish I had only played 125K hands in a year, no I was just using that figure in reference to what I would just about guarantee my payback percentage to be after that many hands. Let me see if I can put this in a different way so it's easier to understand and this just explains my results during the last few years. I only play $2 DDB with a paytable of 9/6/4 which represents a payback percentage of 98.98%, what this payback percentage basicly says is that over the long run with perfect play I should expect it to cost me about .102 cents per hand to play the game. What the game has delivered over the last few years is a cost of .47 cents per hand.

[DaBurglar]

yeaH i HEAR YA!   i totally get it....... What I think would be extremely helpful to all here is for everyone who feels strongly on this issue (either for or against the notion that Casinos are either cheating, or have found a way to get VP games & machines to slaughter us without it being "technically cheating')  to list all the casinos they have played at or are playing at that have Video Poker that is skewed in its results (or, on the flip side, produces results that are typical and fair of true random VP.) So, anyone who has had results like what Ko King described, please list the casino you played at and the game involved (we all know what MY OWN results are and where they took place! lol) Likewise, anyone who has had Video Poker results in the past year that are positive, or fall into expected statistical ranges and indicate fairness, please list them, accordingly.    Let us see if we cannot start documenting specifics to allow the forum community some truly useful info and guidance, as well as allow players to either support or refute what some of us are saying.

[olds442jetaway]

My results are posted a few lines below. I don't know ANY vp players who even came close last year to even a 97% return. All of them play 98-99.5% games and all know how to play the game. My sample is about 20 players. 90% at Mohegan sun and 10% from Foxwoods. Four years ago, I could have given you a sample from a hundred players or more. The players who don't keep close or accurate records to their play all say their W-2Gs are way down, yet their play is the same or higher than prior years. I will say though for 2014, about 1/3 of us have switched to lower denomination games so paytables range from 95-98.5%

[Carcounter]

Ok, First time poster. Felt a need to weigh in. Have played in AC only for the last 7years and kept good records. Am a recreational player- approx. 4 hours/week during this time. Play only at Borgata now as I see no need to squeeze out a few more comps from Caesars properties-although that may no longer be possible anyway. Play 9/6 jacks, single line and Multi-strike as well as SDB at the Borg exclusively. Try to play on point multiplier days or bonus days to get as close to 100% payback as I can. 2007-nice win, 2008-nice win, 2009-small win,2010-big loss 2011-small loss, 2012-small win, 2013-nice win. I know 2013 I was lucky and hit a few $1.00 royals including a 5,400 progressive at Bally's of all places on a 10x multiplier day. Only day I played there all year. My feeling is that something is that something has been "off' at the Boardwalk properties for several years. Just a feeling from my experience. Since the Borgata has good games and a much nicer environment, that's the only place I play.

[onemoretry]

Likewise, anyone who has had Video Poker results in the past year that are positive, or fall into expected statistical ranges and indicate fairness, please list them, accordingly.

In 2013, my return on 8/5 bonus poker at Seneca Niagara was 98%. Total coin in was $505000.

In 2013, my return on 9/6 JOB at Casino Rama was 98.8%. Total coin in was $1028220.

I was up $2700 for a 17 day Las Vegas trip, with play at South Point, Main Street Station, Green Valley Ranch and M. I don't know what my coin in for the trip was.

And, I was down $1700 over three junkets to Laughlin, with play at Aquarius, the Golden Nugget, and Harrah's. And, like Vegas, I don't have a record of my coin in Laughlin.

All in all, it wasn't a very good year, since those small percentage losses are on a large amount of play, but I think my results do fall within expected statistical ranges.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=DaBurglar] .

In 2013, my return on 8/5 bonus poker at Seneca Niagara was 98%. Total coin in was $505000.

In 2013, my return on 9/6 JOB at Casino Rama was 98.8%. Total coin in was $1028220.

I was up $2700 for a 17 day Las Vegas trip, with play at South Point, Main Street Station, Green Valley Ranch and M. I don't know what my coin in for the trip was.

And, I was down $1700 over three junkets to Laughlin, with play at Aquarius, the Golden Nugget, and Harrah's. And, like Vegas, I don't have a record of my coin in Laughlin.

All in all, it wasn't a very good year, since those small percentage losses are on a large amount of play, but I think my results do fall within expected statistical ranges.[/QUOTE]
 Nice, detailed results, One. But I have to ask. By spreading your play out over many properties, do you sacrifice comps that you may have otherwise received if you played that same amount within one property group?

[DaBurglar]

well, a few things need to be said (or repeated): we should not expect results reported at different casinos to be exactly the same or even close, for a lot of reasons.   But we might expect them to be similar in their scope of positive or negative total results. Example:   I have maintained since the beginning that AC boardwalk casinos have video poker that is clearly UNDERPERFORMING in terms of results reaching the expected return percent of the paytables, even taking into consideration that most boardwalk vp has crappy paytables (but there still are some paytables at 99%)     I have also said that Borgata is by far the best casino in AC (really the ONLY healthy one financially speaking) and as such it is not surprising people experience video poker results that are just about exactly what you'd expect given the paytables, with some even winning.   Because Borgata is sound and profitable, they do not need to go into their Video Poker Machines (a.k.a. SLOT machines) and set them to return in the 85 to 90% range that many machines on the boardwalk seem to be..... Other markets, like connecticut (foxwoods & mohegan)  are even more precipitously close to financial oblivion than AC, so the fact that people like olds442 and his associates are seeing the crappy results they are is no surprise.   has anyone found connecticut's gaming regs and printed them?  I dont want to duplicate effort but it might be interesting to read them to see if they are more similar to Vegas' precise regs or AC's ridiculously nebulous regs.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=ko king)In hindsight I wish I had only played 125K hands in a year, no I was just using that figure in reference to what I would just about guarantee my payback percentage to be after that many hands. Let me see if I can put this in a different way so it's easier to understand and this just explains my results during the last few years. I only play $2 DDB with a paytable of 9/6/4 which represents a payback percentage of 98.98%, what this payback percentage basically says is that over the long run with perfect play I should expect it to cost me about .102 cents per hand to play the game. What the game has delivered over the last few years is a cost of .47 cents per hand.
So, Ko, did anyone during your play plop down on the machine next to you, and immediately hit a premium hand?  
 
My understanding of EV is that, with perfect play, it represents the return WITHIN THE UNIVERSE OF THAT GAME/PAYTABLE, not just an individual's experience. So it is my contention that some lucky folks that do not post here grabbed a fair (or we may feel, an unfair) share of the premium hands that make up the difference in that expected return.

[ko king]

My results are posted a few lines below. I don't know ANY vp players who even came close last year to even a 97% return. All of them play 98-99.5% games and all know how to play the game. My sample is about 20 players. 90% at Mohegan sun and 10% from Foxwoods. Four years ago, I could have given you a sample from a hundred players or more. The players who don't keep close or accurate records to their play all say their W-2Gs are way down, yet their play is the same or higher than prior years. I will say though for 2014, about 1/3 of us have switched to lower denomination games so paytables range from 95-98.5%
The amount of W-2G's recieved vs. the amount of hands played provide the most obvious support to my argument that things have changed because there's no hiding or exaggerating those facts because I play $2 denomination at max. There's really not a lot of skill involved when it comes to the type of hands that generate a W-2G playing a game like DDB, I believe the correct term for those type of hands are called "no brainers".  It's kinda funny that you mention that many players have switched to lower denominations because I had a conversation with a guy and his wife who suggested I do the exact opposite. I used to run into this couple all the time, seems like everytime I went to the casino they were there, guess they could say the same thing about me though, to give you an idea of how much they played though, one year they hit 52 single line royal flushes playing $1 and $2 denom DDB, that's a lot of royals. Anyway they said they went through the same thing as me, it was costing more to play the game, lots more because the premium hands quit coming as frequent. The last few years I've had some pretty poor results and the cost per hand played is running around .45-.47 cent per hand, pretty expensive habit to say the least, they were experiencing pretty much the same thing. Instead of dropping denomination they upped the ante and are actually seeing a drop in cost for hands played. Now I know it's not supposed to work that way but for some freak reason it's working for them. I've played some $5 denom vp over the years but that $25 per hand amount makes my heart rate go up a bit so I never got comfortable with it.