Planning for a better year in 2013...

[roveer]

Yes, it's another humonguous Roveer post.  If you don't like to read, just skip it...So here I sit, looking back on 2012,  really only the 2nd year of my "modern" VP lifetime.  I've been playing VP for 15 years, but other than the last 2 have been a few times a year (sometimes only once during my annual Vegas jaunt and almost exclusively at the single line quarter denomination), but as many know, the past 2 years, I've done huge amounts of 10 line super times pay dollar denomination. Not happy at all with the results I obtained this year, I'm deciding how I want to alter my play for the next 12 months.  I'm working on a stop win/loss program.  This would stop a trip after a certain amount of win, (stop meaning get off the high denomination and go play nickels,dimes or quarters to feed the habbit, but to keep the windfall protected).  Only a very few times, one in particular, has continuing after a big win resulted in more big wins.  More often it has resulted in big losses.  Also, stopping a trip after a non-result when faced with reloading.  Reloading is something that I didn't do much in the beginning, but has been an increasing bad habbit.  After analyizing the "reload" scenario, there have not been enough good outcomes to consider it an acceptable practice.  If it's not possible to stop playing, than dropping to nickles/dimes with a fractional reload would be allowed just to feed the dragon.  I've actually found that when things are that bad, and I'm in the position of making bad decisions (about reloading large and continuing a losing streak), that I'm adequetly satisfied playing nickles,dimes and single line quarters.  Usually at that point it's just about playing the game, and the denomination isn't as important.  This was a big observation for me this year as I've had to learn a bunch of stuff about myself in order to keep this all real.  I encourage everyone to get real with yourself if you exhibit any of my bad habbits.    Another thing that has changed is the Total Rewards program, which might just be a good thing for me.  Earning 2,500 tier credits each day gets me an additional 5,000 tier credits.  I'm usually good for 2,500 tier credits a day so this will help me keep my 7 star rating with less of a committment which is just as good, because "less of a committment" is how I feel they treat 7 stars players, so it works out good for both sides.  I can use those monies to foster another program. Looking back at 2012 and listening to a lot of posters including more than one "where's Roveer" post has shown me that it sure seems like the number of hand pays is down.  Very unscientific I guess, but I used to post loads of hand pays, and 2012 just didn't bring them.  I did manage a few that I did not post in my past 2 visits, but when you are used to posting 8-10 pictures from a visit and all you've got is a single 1,250 from a very similar visit, it just doesn't seem like it's worth posting.  Is this a Global VP drystreak?  Has all the luck run out of my left foot?  Will it ever change? whoofa... Anyway, to the real purpose of my post, other than the clense of admission of a lackluster year. To Those who keep really great records: I need a new record keeping system! After I started getting more serious in my VP play I did start to log some information about each visit, but looking back this year, and reading a bunch of posts, I decided this system is very basic and doesn't give me much more than high left win/loss information.  I'm (and I'm sure others), are interested in hearing how some of you folks keep records.  I've basically kept visit, bankrool, W2g Pays, Takehome.  I was keeping tier and TR points but if I don't remember to log them before I leave the website is always inaccurate and the values were meaningless. I swear from some of the posts, it sounds like some of you could play back the hands if you had to.  What exactly do you log from a visit?   I really want to upgrade this part of my play and would like to capture meaningful information that can help. Any other suggestions?  Salt over the shoulder?  Maybe stop giving my regulars pet names? (I've got slow guy, the professor, slappy, and a few others) Let's all take a second to hold virtual hands, and give a quick meditative "ummmmm" ending with a kuumbaya and one of those "i just got a chill" deals in hopes that things turn around in 2013.  After all we kicked the crap out of that Mayan thing and went flying over the fiscal cliff and here we are still posting on this crazy message board.  On a serious note, better luck to everyone on your very next visit. Roveer   

[DrawingDead]

Great post Roveer.

Here is what I do. I bring just $500 with me. I start at $.50 single line and work my way up. I keep 2 pockets going. One with the original $500.00 and the other with my winnings. My goal is to leave with at least the original $500. If I hit something decent, then I go back to just $.50 to feed the habit. Good luck to you. Of course I only play single line VP. I have seen you had some past success with the single line. Even though you favor multi line games.

[BillyJoe]

Nice post, Roveer. By now, I am sure that you know my position on Money Management for the recreational player - I endorse it.
 
I am not a big record keeper (too much work on something that is supposed to be fun). When I go on a gaming trip, I have a fixed gaming bankroll - no Line of Credit, ATMs, etc. Based on the length of the trip, I set VP session Win/Loss Stop points for myself. I decide how comfortable I would be to stop playing at a certain win point, and I have a loss stop point that would ensure that I have enough of a bankroll left for the remainder of the trip. My overall goal is to have a good time playing, so having the money to play with is important.

[billslim]

Awesome post Roveer!  I think you have some good ideas.  In the end, as you stated, you and you alone know what will and will not work for you.  Its hard not to reload when the time comes.   I find that after a losing session, if I walk out of the casino and sit somewhere for a least 30 minutes then I am less likely to hit the ATM.  Also mixing in some stupid slot machine helps some.  I really appreciate your post!

[jackwells]

Yes Roveer...very interesting to read your posts.  And, as we all know, no matter how much you study the pay tables, and jump around to different machines (which I often do when I'm not winning)....if the cards are not coming up, it is VERY frustrating.
I get to go to Vegas (no casinos in Texas) maybe 3 to 4 X a year.  Some trips, I can't lose, others...well, you know.  Guess that's the fun and the challenge for us VP maniacs...Hopefully, 2013 will be good luck for us!!  Video poker wise....

[damule]

Roveer,


 
Take it from someone that was 7 Stars over several years a few years back: the only way to improve your results is to play better pay tables.
 
I'm assuming by your frequent posts that you're a well-educated, highly-skilled player. Even with all this knowledge, the math is still the math. Run $1,000,000 through a 97-98% returning game, odds are that you'll lose around $20,000 - 30,000. I know this, I did exactly what you're doing for several years. As a matter of fact click the following link to a thread I posted over 4 years ago here: http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum ... experiment
 
Good luck with money management. It does manage the LOSING at a different rate. Instead of going to the casino 4 times a month and winning $5,000 once and losing $3,000 three times, you'll go to the casino 10 times a month and lose $1,000 eight times and win $2000 twice. Hmmm, still lost $4,000 over the course of a month.
 
Unless, you've committed to being a complete recreational player, such as billyjoe, and choose to play video poker as a form of entertainment with expected discernable loses, the only way to improve your expected results are with better pay tables. I do agree that luck and managed win/loss limits will aid bankroll management short-term; however, better returning pay tables are the only way to increase expected returns long-term. 
 
 

[Lucky Larry]

roveer,
Here wishing you a better year. My 2012 was part of the return to norm after 2010 being dealt all the RF and great hits! Won't have to worry about paying extra taxes this year.   

[shadowman]

I think one stat a lot of people should keep is their actual return. We know the return of the machines being played so it helps to see exactly how our play matches up to the games.
 
I've been doing this for awhile. When I have a good year I can see that I did better than expected. If I then have a average year I don't consider it to be unlucky. Without doing this a person might think they had poor luck.
 
Damule laid out the basic facts. Win/loss goals do not change the return of the games. They can help reduce losses on negative games by reducing the amount of play. Of course, that requires more discipline. I think the following are good rules of thumb for regular players:
 
1) Play the best pay tables available.
2) Know the game strategy and use it.
3) Understand what the math says you will do on the game on average.
4) Play within your bankroll.

[BillyJoe]

I think one stat a lot of people should keep is their actual return. We know the return of the machines being played so it helps to see exactly how our play matches up to the games.
 
I've been doing this for awhile. When I have a good year I can see that I did better than expected. If I then have a average year I don't consider it to be unlucky. Without doing this a person might think they had poor luck.
 
Damule laid out the basic facts. Win/loss goals do not change the return of the games. They can help reduce losses on negative games by reducing the amount of play. Of course, that requires more discipline. I think the following are good rules of thumb for regular players:
 
1) Play the best pay tables available.
2) Know the game strategy and use it.
3) Understand what the math says you will do on the game on average.
4) Play within your bankroll.
No disrespect, Shadow, but that's kinda like saying "in order to stay alive, you must inhale, then exhale."
 
I think most of the folks on this Forum will try and do everything that you have said. The hard fact remains that, unless you play a significant amount of VP hands, and have access to choices in pay tables, a recreational player needs to maximize their opportunities to be successful (ie profitable) on the games that they have available when they have the opportunity to play them. Yes, higher volatility games, like TDB, can have a lower EV, but they also give you a better opportunity to cash a bigger payout than a more positive EV JOB game. But playing a highly volatile VP game WITHOUT some form of Money Management approach can be a disaster.   

[brmcc74]

the only way to be ahead is to quit playing.  Otherwise , you are just losing less which is a good thing compared to no plan at all