My 2016 Strategy

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=DaBuglar]...in which case that is the point of this forum[/quote]Exactly.  I may disagree with others and they may disagree with me.  What I have a problem with is someone selling a particular strategy for profit as if it's some law of nature.  Video poker is an enjoyable recreational pastime and never intended to be profitable or the basis of a career.    The only way you can make a lot of money long term at this game is to find some other source of revenue outside of the game itself.    I'm fine with whatever that some other thing is as long as it's not selling players a dream with a bunch of disclaimers attached. 

[FAA]

We all should know by now that CS will prevent VP doom each and every trip. You just ain't all that invested. The cost is less excitement and many less opportunities for a jackpot. I will abide the trade off. 

[FloridaPhil]

There is a big difference in the mind set of a math player vs. a fun player.   A real math player is not concerned about losing because he/she believes the game odds will eventually win out and cause the actual return to equal the expected return.  A fun player strives to win on every trip or at least come close to breaking even.  Playing super cheap and running away with every win is one way to accomplish this.  It is a fact that no one will ever get rich playing CS, but that's not the point.   I think playing all day for next to nothing is a good deal and I love it when I hit a decent max coin jackpot and leave with money in my pocket.  For me it beats paying $5-10k a year for the privilege of losing.  Others may have different opinions.

[alpax]

I am late to the discussion but I would have to say that being down $1000 considering the quantity of video poker you played is pretty good. Good luck to you in 2016 and more power to you if you can replicate that same result. I think it will help considerably if you can get lucky on the potshots you take if you do venture out to the high limit room.

I would think profitability to you is being able to come out ahead on a trip more often.

As most recreational players face, we will lose in the grand scheme of things playing negative expectation games. What recreational players can control is the value the get back from the casinos in the form of comps for their play. If you still get room stays and dining credit from playing CS at the Hollywood Hard Rock, I'd say that is good enough.

I know most people are against playing for the sake of comps, but I will max bet if it brings a fair value of comps in return for the theoretical losses.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax] If you still get room stays and dining credit from playing CS at the Hollywood Hard Rock, I'd say that is good enough.[/quote] We don't expect many comps when playing CS.  The reduced loses are worth more to us than comps are any day.  Interestingly enough,  free or seriously discounted rooms are fairly easy to get at the Hollywood casino even playing CS.  We log onto their website on a monthly basis and cherry pick days where the rooms are comped or seriously discounted.  The hotel is quite large so it's not difficult to get a free room off season during the week.  Single coin, max coin, pot shots.... they're all wins as far as I'm concerned.   CS is a hit and run strategy and much more exciting for me than the boredom of flat betting max coins and waiting for the math to disappoint me again.

[olds442jetaway]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]


There is a big difference in the mind set of a math player vs. a fun player.   A real math player is not concerned about losing because he/she believes the game odds will eventually win out and cause the actual return to equal the expected return.  A fun player strives to win on every trip or at least come close to breaking even.  Playing super cheap and running away with every win is one way to accomplish this.  It is a fact that no one will ever get rich playing CS, but that's not the point.   I think playing all day for next to nothing is a good deal and I love it when I hit a decent max coin jackpot and leave with money in my pocket.  For me it beats paying $5-10k a year for the privilege of losing.  Others may have different opinions.
     My post is below...Olds...

     Believe it or not, 5-10k is what I should lose a year on a 99 percent game. I would be thrilled with that. Factor in a 95 percent return on a 99 percent game and well, I don't have to post the math on that. That said, the retail value of the comps where I play do add up to about what the 5 percent loss is. That is because I have nearly a hundred overnights a year and they do offer other fairly nominal free stuff. I still would much rather have the money in my pocket and for that reason, for 2016, I will be sticking with CS with a very mild martingale clone built into it as described in a recent post. The comps will fall off and greatly reduce over time, but so it. I can always switch my play to down the street another fifteen minutes where rooms are much easier to get. If I stick to it, the saved money will definitely pay for one new car and of course the Mrs. will want and need one too. If I really stick to it, I may even buy us a " Fla Phil go to casino buggy ". I never did get my Hemi back in the day. Got as far as a 383 and 440 and that is it.

[FAA]

The hardcore math people are going to keep pounding and grinding come hell or high water. After all, 99% or 99.54% means only a trivial loss at worst, by gosh. Buck up, sonny! The CS people see the tsunami coming a mile away and are not about to take yet another body slam. Hit, run or swim and live to play another day.

[olds442jetaway]

The same folks who say it matters not to hit and run. Well, I have been ahead at some point in over 90% of my sessions, only to stay and play and leave down in 90% of them. Getting out at or near the top of the sine curve is probably harder than timing the market, but for those who can master it, vp will be a winner or tiny loser at the worst for them. My last session a couple of days ago is my most recent example. Playing CS and my ultra mild Martingale clone combination method, I was up 300 early on sometime during the first hour. Eight hours later, I was on my way home down 200. The only good thing was I hit my casino created goal of x number of status points earned for the day. That means for the next thirty days, I will have a hundred bucks of free play in my account. That may be all I need to duplicate the early results of my last session. We'll see. Plan is to head up again late Friday night.

[FloridaPhil]

I believe anyone's video poker results whether they be good or bad are due mostly to luck.  So much of our positive gains are due to so few hands that it doesn't make sense to think that math is going have any significant effect on the number of jackpots in a lifetime. Math doesn't owe us anything, it gives us a window into what's "suppose" to happen in a theoretically perfect world. As a recreational player I have more fun and do much better financially playing most of my video poker for peanuts and walking away with my occasional pot shot wins.  Would I base a career on this strategy?  Heck No!  I would go out and start a company or get a real job and play video poker for relaxation.  Ah yes, another day in paradise!  Olds.  I just traded in my R/T truck for a six speed Hemi Challenger.   I'm now the little old man from Pasadena with my super stock Dodge.  My wife is begging me to drive it, but I'm not sure I want to unleash her on the neighborhood.

[olds442jetaway]

Now how did I know that was coming after some of our recent posts back and forth with I think KO too with his. Best of luck with the new buggy. Maybe the Mrs. will at least let you ride shotgun if you wear your harness. Post a pic if you have time sometime and best of luck on the upcoming vp trips too. As long as my knees keep working, 6 speed will be the way to go for me too. Even my old Saturn has a stick. I would still have the 442 also if it wasn't an auto. My friend may be selling his 55 Chev with a built 454 this year. It is a bare bones post coupe and former priest's car from right around here. Dog dish hubcaps and all. I will have first shot at it so CS is a mandate to get the finances ready.