This happened to me recently.

[FloridaPhil]

All human Video Poker play is short term.   Some will be winners and believe math and skill made them a winner.  Some will be losers and say they had bad luck or blame the games.  It doesn't matter to the game which one you believe, there are no guarantees either way.   VP is gambling and that's what makes it fun.  

[Gronbog]

All human Video Poker play is short term. Some will be winners and believe math and skill made them a winner. 
Some will be losers and say they had bad luck or blame the games.  It
doesn't matter to the game which one you believe, there are no
guarantees either way.I disagree. Anyone who plays regularly will reach the mathematical long term within a few years. In the strictest of mathematical senses, it is possible that someone playing with a negative edge can still be ahead or that someone playing with a positive edge can still be behind after that amount of time. However, I showed in another thread that the probability is so close to zero as to be actually zero for practical purposes.So to say that the math was not the reason for them to end up being a winner or a loser is extremely misleading. It is like saying that if you never get struck by lightning, then it's because you got lucky.

[FloridaPhil]

If you believe your success or failure is predetermined, why play?

[onemoretry]

If you believe your success or failure is predetermined, why play? Because it's success that's predetermined?

[Gronbog]

If you believe your success or failure is predetermined, why play?For me, the answer is, because I only play any casino game when I have the advantage.The answer for recreational players is "for entertainment at a reasonable cost".The answer for gamblers is "because I can't stop"

[billryan]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]If you believe your success or failure is predetermined, why play?Because I only play any casino game when I have the advantage.[/QUOTE]

Isn't that cheating?

[Gronbog]

[QUOTE=Gronbog]
[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]If you believe your success or failure is predetermined, why play?Because I only play any casino game when I have the advantage.[/QUOTE]

Isn't that cheating?[/QUOTE]Coming from you, I'll assume that was a sarcastic remark and that you're perhaps stirring the pot on something that has been discussed here in the past.

[FloridaPhil]

Let me make sure I understand what I think you are stating.  You are stating that the long term results of any video poker game can be accurately predicted in advance by the odds plus the comps alone. You are defining "long term" as one royal cycle and your prediction is guaranteed to be correct within zero percent.  Do I have this correct?

[Gronbog]

Let me make sure I understand what I think you are stating.  You are stating that the long term results of any video poker game can be accurately predicted in advance by the odds plus the comps alone. You are defining "long term" as one royal cycle and your prediction is guaranteed to be correct within zero percent.  Do I have this correct?






You really should try to get the facts right before you start to distort them, as your signature suggests. Where did I ever say that long term was one royal cycle?I gave an exact mathematical definition of the long term in another thread (the one where you stated that no one knows how long the long term is). Search for the discussion on N0 (n-zero).For those who missed it, N0 is the number of hands you need to play for your expected result to equal one standard deviation. This is important because we know the probability of being more than 1, 2, or more standard deviations away from your expected result. I showed that once you have played N0 hands the probability of beating a negative edge game or of being behind on a positive edge game is about 18%. After 4 x No hands played, less than 1% and beyond that, essentially zero.What I am saying here is that an active player will easily reach 4 x N0 hands played within a few years and after that point, whether they will be up or down is as close to being guaranteed as not getting struck by lightning.Han Solo would say: "So you're telling me there's a chance". 

[FloridaPhil]

I am not disagreeing with you.  I want to make sure I understand what you are saying before I comment.I do not think it is possible to use math to 100% accurately predict the results of any video poker game in advance.  I believe it is possible for a player to lose playing 100% games.  I also believe it is possible for a player to play negative games and win.There are far too many variables in an average video poker day to be as predictable as you suggest.  Players are not computer simulations.   Players change games mid play.  Players change denominations.  They may play quarters all day then switch to $5 games and hit a royal putting them ahead for years.  Players don't all play the same number of hands in a lifetime.  A player make walk out of the casino and never go back in one.   What if a player plays 99% games all year and makes one trip to Vegas where he plays a101% game.  Do they cancel each other out?   I could go on, but I doubt I will convince you.Your whole argument sounds like an advertisement for Vegas video poker.   I know you don't mean it that way, but where else can you find games that "guarantee" a win?  I prefer to play and be surprised.