The Path II

[FAA]

Your $4K (or 750) royal is imminent...maybe.
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December 19 TT post. He should play the damn lottery!

[dinghy]

If the Caesars JOB quarter progressive is $1,100 or so, I can skip the Harrah's side trip and enjoy the quarter play without much bankroll consequence. So I will be more inclined to anchor myself there. Still not 100%, but acceptable. I just want a hand pay for the bucket list.

Perfect example. A (9/6) JOB quarter progressive is a rare privilege these days. According to vpfree2, they only exist at four non-Reno casinos: Caesars AC, Skyline Vegas, Riverwalk Vicksburg & Twin Arrows Flagstaff.

If you find the progressive at $1,100 you have a 99.75% game + the meter movement. You only need the slimmest of slot club benefits to push you over 100% EV.

If you're really intent on a taxable, do you ever look at the Bally's Triple Play 8/5 Bonus 25c progressives? Vpfree2 says they have two banks unlinked to each other. That could be another opportunistic option to only play if the levels are high.

[OTABILL]

No bankroll + no discipline = Path II obliteration

Also,

No edge

Gambling games are mathematical. Respect the math, or perish.

A lot of otherwise intelligent gamblers dismiss the math because it's inconvenient.

That was my point when he I suggested he needs to be opportunistic. For example it's not far wrong to say "always max bet," but I would prefer to analyze each situation individually.

May I remind you that this is the recreational forum. Some of us actually play for reasons that are primarily not financial. When I go the casino with a bankroll of $200, for example, that is what I have budgeted to spend that evening's entertainment. My friends/neighbors etc. may budget $200 for greens fees at the local golf course. The difference is that sometimes my night playing VP may not cost me the entire $200. In fact, I may actually come out ahead unlike my golfing friends. I play DDB whether it has the best EV or not. I am not there to be bored. Believe me, I respect the math but it doesn't dominate my play nor the reason I, and others, play VP. Obviously, the two of you may have a different perspective. Fair enough. Different strokes for each of us. From reading his posts over the years, I consider FAA primarily a recreational player and I would like to hear his, and others, thoughts

[FAA]

I did not know that quarter progressives were that rare. I will have to treat that bank with more reverence. I usually start there and abandon it after a quad for Harrah’s dollar carousel scene. It’s a more vibrant casino with a much better crowd, lighting and spacing. The progressives are right in front of the waitress exit. It’s a distractingly awkward area. But at $1,100, I would tolerate it. RF there seven years ago. I’ve never had a lengthy grind it out day; it may be a good experiment. I dislike Triple Play. But again, at the right level, I could tolerate it. What total would make it worthwhile?

[Waiting4RF]

I think Bally's AC is closing for a few days next week (Feb 16-18) to reprogram their machines for Bally's tickets, instead of the Caesars. This info from sevenstarsinsider.com I looked at their room prices and the 16th and 17th are Sold Out. So the info seems correct.

[dinghy]

May I remind you that this is the recreational forum.

I apologize if I overstepped the line. My comments were targeted to the context of this particular discussion.

I will have to treat that bank with more reverence.

When full-pay deuces wild was more common in Vegas, it felt like the machines were always in obnoxious locations. I think it was intentional at some properties because they wanted the busy machines to be visible so the casino would look popular. Only problem with that was many of the FPDW regulars looked like homeless people.

I dislike Triple Play. But again, at the right level, I could tolerate it. What total would make it worthwhile?

Oh that's too bad. I love multi-line. It dampens the volatility, which I guess not everyone enjoys.

For those machines, I assume each line has a separate royal progressive. (At some places an extra-large progressive jackpot will be offered for the dealt royal.) To assess the game, you would total the three royal amounts. Base total at reset would be $3000. Each additional $300 adds about 0.2%, so anything near $4000 would be approaching break-even. Calculator says 99.86% at exactly $4000, but you get extra value from the meters going up.

[FAA]

The same issue applies on this coast. Many of the FPJOB regulars look like they desperately need three hots and a cot. The obnoxious location and clientele wears me down after an hour. Triple play does dilute volatility, since you are likely to salvage at least one of the hands. I never bothered to process how the progressive jackpot worked. So $3,000 base; consider play in $3,800 area. I would give that a shot if I drop in.

[dinghy]

I never bothered to process how the progressive jackpot worked. So $3,000 base; consider play in $3,800 area.

Yes that seems reasonable. Technically the strategy is a little different for high jackpots, playing more aggressively for the royal. But you can worry about that later if you decide to play the bank regularly.

If you either play or observe, keep an eye on how fast the jackpots build. Obviously the faster the better, but this bank has a pretty good base game (8/5 Bonus), therefore the meters may be slow. Especially since it is or was a Caesars property lol.

[olds442jetaway]

I guess by now, considering that by year end, I am negative every year, that as much as I like to come out ahead, my vp play is mainly for recreation, stress relief, enjoyment, and of course to take advantage of some of the free offerings. Pre covid, we stayed in beautiful rooms and suites a 100 nights a year, unlimited food and many shows, drinks if we choose, even free gas, a few useful gifts, free play, and even a few shopping sprees. Being very conservative, and assigning values much less than retail, I estimate all of this comes out to be about 30,000 to 40,000 a year. Just about what we can afford to and do lose. Our expenses except insurance and taxes are low so..... why not enjoy ourselves. We certainly aren’t getting any younger! Just our free play alone runs about 5-6,000 a year about .3 percent of coin in. By the way, no matter what the math shows, I ballpark my quit when ahead philosophy, if I did it at about 15,000 a year. Haven’t been able to do it yet though. Unfortunately, just enjoy the game too much. This may answer what Otabill wrote about and probably others in this forum can identify with it as well. By the way FAA, this is intended for you too, maybe to explain why we play like we do most times and no matter at what level

[FAA]

Makes sense for Bally’s to close in mid week February; deader than a door nail. Yes, I’ve been recreational but now I’d like to see some pay out. Just breaking even has been stressful. I need that max hand pay, then maybe take ten weeks off. I’ve amassed Rewards Credits, so plenty of 1:1 Gordon Ramsey meals are available to kill some time and smell the roses.