My JoB journey

[Tedlark]

Phil, I may be a bit slow on the uptake but what is this "guarantee" that you speak of which is a source of disagreement? Where was this "guarantee" printed, posted, published, or stated and who was the author?

Phil, how about answering this question? It appears to have been overlooked.

[FloridaPhil]

If you are going to gamble, an intelligent person would assume there is risk. If you are going to gamble $25 a hand, an intelligent person would assume the risk was higher than someone playing 25 cents a hand. When you use math to conclude a positive VP game is profitable, you are leading players to believe there is a "guarantee" they won't lose their money. There is no such guarantee and never will be.

I believe an AP can do everything right and still lose long term. I also believe a player who is attempting to play like an AP without the games, skills, discipline and bankroll is practically assured of losing long term. When you sell a strategy like Advantage Play to the public, you must talk about long term risk as well as profit.

DB and his wife's million dollar win in six months had a lot of things going for it. Out of the millions of hands they played, nearly half a million dollars of their profit came from two hands on one night. If they had been in the bathroom when those occurred, I'm not sure he would have wrote a book about it.

That does not mean his entire strategy is worthless. I use it on the negative quarter games I have to play. It reduces my cost to play and increases my comps. If I increased by bet to $25 a hand, all that would happen is my loses would be bigger. When all the VP games in the world are negative, everyone will be taught to play like I do now. Some players will still play as big as they can because they are willing to pay big to see big jackpots. I'll still be playing quarters.

[Carcounter]

I have been keeping records for about 20 years. I have posted before about the positive games there were in AC prior to the recession. I used to play about 200,000 hands a year back then and ran positive 8 out of 10 years. I would have to go back and check my logs. Since then I have only played 99.54% or better games, which still exist, but of course are negative. I have ran negative 7 out of the last 10 years. I am still slightly positive overall, but not much. So I do believe in the math unlike some others. Now I play much fewer hands per year, for obvious reasons, because the 99.54% games with comps are still a good gamble. I suspect there are other recreational players who have had a similar experience.I will give VP up all together if the 99.54% games disappear.

[onemoretry]

If they had been in the bathroom when those occurred, I'm not sure he would have wrote a book about it.

I'm not quite sure I understand this. How can someone be in the bathroom and at the same time hit a royal?

[Tedlark]

Phil, you wrote before of a guarantee and I asked you to produce it. What you wrote was an unsuccessfu attempt at unpainting yourself from a corner.

I am not picking on you and I hope you, or others, don't have that impression. What I am doing though is simply questioning you off things that you post. If you cannot handle questions on your posts, then do not post or be able to back up what you write. As I mentioned before, I believe it was you who posted about being able to take the heat.

[billryan]

If they had been in the bathroom when those occurred, I'm not sure he would have wrote a book about it.

I'm not quite sure I understand this. How can someone be in the bathroom and at the same time hit a royal?

I actually thought this made sense, compared to many of his post. It shows originality, unlike his usual regurgitation.

[Eduardo]

I'm not quite sure I understand this. How can someone be in the bathroom and at the same time hit a royal?

Wild nights at the Palace, I suppose.

Best I've ever gotten in there was a flush.

I think that's just FP longhand for "if he didn't hit that royal."

It's a fair question, how much luck played a role in Mr. Dancer's initial success. But it's also a distraction from the realities of "long-term play" and the next to impossible chance of never hitting a royal with a certain amount of play. While there are no absolute guarantees, the odds quickly approach a low enough value that anyone with statistical understanding can easily discard them. For those who lack statistical understanding, they will continue to question that chance (in which case, they can also just choose not to play). In truth, their lack of statistical understanding probably reliably costs them hundreds of times what they would lose if they did in fact find themselves in that next to impossible situation.

[onemoretry]

Best I've ever gotten in there was a flush.

Good one!

[FloridaPhil]

Best I've ever gotten in there was a flush.

Now that was funny!!

[FloridaPhil]

Any discussion about the statistical validity of any Advantage Play "guarantee" is conjecture at best. There is no correlation between what happens in a computer lab with fixed factors and what happens in a casino with a human player. The fault I find with this strategy is not with the math, it's the players who are the wild card.

Who can play VP 100% computer perfect forever? Who has an unlimited bankroll and is willing to sacrifice it all on the cycle of an RNG? Who has the time to sit endlessly in front of a slot machine breathing toxic smoke and enduring all kinds of indignities just so they can make a profit in a casino? I am not taking jabs at professional gamblers. I wonder what someone who is that skilled and disciplined could do if they worked that hard at building a business or in a career with greater potential? They may have been Bill Gates, but they spent their life sitting in a room counting royals.

I believe video poker is best enjoyed as entertainment. I don't believe any casino game remains unbeatable for long. Today's casinos know when they have given away too much and they are quick to change the rules. Who can argue with that?

The question is what are we going to do about it? My plan is to use Advantage Play strategy to play the games I have and to play small enough where I get the entertainment I want at a cost I am willing to pay. I went to this strategy in 2018 and had a winning year playing 97% VP. How did that happen when the math said it shouldn't? Seven royals cured all my shortcomings.