RNG Questions

[Gronbog]

Phil, you missed the point that it doesn't matter exactly when you make changes to your bet or when you change games. All the sim program needs to mimic is now frequently on average you do so. SlatRGatr is also correct that it is not necessary to actually run a sim (as I also said). Given the same information, the expected result can be calculated. Yes, you can separate the results from each different game at each different bet level and add them to get the combined result.

[Sea Lion]

I just dropped $300 in one of those nickel 50 play machines across from the Oyster Bar at South Point playing 10 hands betting 5 playing 9/6 DDB, and not one stinkin quad. Not one. I was ass out within about 45 minutes, if that. That is how it generally goes for me there or at Rampart, their sister property. Now I can go to Main St and play nickels 10 play 8/5 DDB and hit quads quite often and get a "fish ticket" for an extra buck for every fish I catch. No one is disputing the math, but for real play, guess where I am most likely to go fishing?

[FloridaPhil]

Phil, you missed the point that it doesn't matter exactly when you make changes to your bet or when you change games. All the sim program needs to mimic is now frequently on average you do so. SlatRGatr is also correct that it is not necessary to actually run a sim (as I also said). Given the same information, the expected result can be calculated. Yes, you can separate the results from each different game at each different bet level and add them to get the combined result.

You are assuming you can write code that will predict the results of an unspecific and variable game played by unspecific and variable players over an unspecific and variable period of time. If you were the leader of our development team, how would you like to outline the functional spec for that program? No thanks.

The claim is "if you only play positive return games computer perfectly, good things will happen". I agree. Given enough time, a player who only plays when he has an edge, can play error free forever, has an unlimited bankroll and enough discipline to continue as long as it takes, should profit. I don't know anyone like that. It's hard enough these days to find a positive game, much less a video poker super hero. Back in the day, this wasn't so hard. Today? I'm not sure it's worth the time and effort.

Here's a better plan. Buy Apple stock (AAPL). Own it. Don't sell it. How would you feel if you made a 6% profit from your video poker? You can earn that return from owning pieces of solid companies like ATT while sitting at home. Of course you wouldn't have the enjoyment of hitting a royal.

[billryan]

Really? Stocks never go down? You claim there is no guarantee in video poker but then make a ridiculous claim of no question 6% profit from picking stocks. You really are amazing. You might want to stick to lecturing about "the odds".
Are you seriously comparing the possible annual return on a stock to the edge on a video poker game?

[FloridaPhil]

Really? Stocks never go down? You claim there is no guarantee in video poker but then make a ridiculous claim of no question 6% profit from picking stocks. You really are amazing. You might want to stick to lecturing about "the odds".
Are you seriously comparing the possible annual return on a stock to the edge on a video poker game?

The stock market has historically returned an average of 10% annually. Over nearly the last century, the stock market's average return is about 10% annually. That's what long-term investors in the stock market can expect to earn if they buy and hold their investments over time.

Any questions?

[Eduardo]

Sears. Enron. Countless others.

Congratulations you are now responsible for giving the most dangerous advice in the history of the forum.

(This is where Phil points to other companies like Apple who have done well in hindsight and says "I meant companies like these...)

[FloridaPhil]

Dangerous? I've been called that before. I don't know Mr. Dancer, but I read his books. He didn't get where he is today solely by playing video poker. If you read what he says, he is a very frugal individual. Most wealthy people are. He took his winnings and invested them wisely. Think about this. What if he took the million dollars he and his wife won in 2000 and invested it in the stock market and let it compound. The little money he made selling books and software would be chump change today.

I am not disputing any of his claims or his math. What I am saying is I think playing video poker believing you are going to get wealthy in today's casinos is foolish at best. Those days are gone forever. The true path to wealth is thru hard work, saving and investment. Anyone can get lucky. Keeping and growing your money over time is where it's at.

Investing for your future is something young people seem to have forgotten about. Our great grand fathers put their money in a mattress. I would prefer you do that rather than waste it in a casino.

[FAA]

Every once in a while, I sneak over to the high limit room.
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I got lulled into the dark, depressing Cove for VP, Harrah's HL room. Still disgusted with myself. Caesars HL for a drink in peace while I charge my phone. I enjoy the play from afar. One day I may even play a slot.

[billryan]

Really? Stocks never go down? You claim there is no guarantee in video poker but then make a ridiculous claim of no question 6% profit from picking stocks. You really are amazing. You might want to stick to lecturing about "the odds".
Are you seriously comparing the possible annual return on a stock to the edge on a video poker game?

The stock market has historically returned an average of 10% annually. Over nearly the last century, the stock market's average return is about 10% annually. That's what long-term investors in the stock market can expect to earn if they buy and hold their investments over time.

Any questions?

So no one ever lost money on stocks, right? Why not use the same standards you use on video poker. You insist it is possible that someone can play positive games but simply never get a royal flush. Isn't it possible some newbie stumbles in here, listens to you and loses all their hard earned money? You have officially jumped the shark.

[FloridaPhil]

Just like video poker, you don't make money in the stock market trying to cash out at the right time. There is no math that will absolutely predict your short term results in either endeavor. If you have access to insider information, it gets easier. Unfortunately, this is illegal in stock trading. Ask Martha Stewart.

Before you walk into a casino, you should know the risks. If you can afford to lose all your money, you will not be surprised if that happens. You could bet on one stock and have the same result. That's not what savvy investors do. They diversify their holdings across a wide spectrum of different investments. If a royal flush doesn't happen on one, it may on another. I own stock in at least 30 different companies. Half of my investments are in bonds. On any given day, I may hate one investment and love another. History tells me I will profit as long as I do my research and I don't panic.

Investing is similar to video poker in many ways. The difference is you have more resources to aid you other than a math formula that worked for someone twenty years ago. Obviously, I think playing video poker is a good thing or I wouldn't be here. As entertainment, it's great. As anything else, it's not worth the time and trouble.