Long Term vs. Short Term

[Tedlark]

It is stereotyping and degrading.

[tech58]

How's this for political correctness?

It has been my observation that table game gamblers are noisier than video poker players. Some table game players yell, slam the table or shout seemingly at every turn of the cards. This activity is not limited to them but does seem common with players who appear to have Southeast Asian heritage. These players are generally small in stature. This is part of the casino experience, so I ignore it. If you are offended by drunks, smokers, cussing, loud talking, shouting, rebel yells or obsessive behavior of any kind, you should stay away from casinos.

The truth, is the truth, is the truth, is the truth.
Four for four that time FP. You've been practicing at home.
However, you missed one. Anyone who has observed a high stakes baccarat game in Vegas has observed players actually and literally destroy the cards,as they. turn them over, or after a loss. The offenders can be easily stereotyped and should be degraded. I will give you a clue. They are definitely shall we say small-of-stature. Is that really more PC ? Not really so lets just go with small.

[pokerpokerpoker]

I played bacc with some Orientals one time. Quite an elaborate affair they made the game out to be- scribbling notes, looking at the board ect, waiting forever to place a bet. Sometimes I bet with them, sometimes not. But whatever I did, I musta did it wrong because they were always giving me the stink-eye and (I imagine) cussing me out.

Superstitious bunch, I reckon.

[FloridaPhil]

I don't care if the players are Little Green Men from Mars. Many oriental table game players are loud. No disrespect to Martians. I don't find them obnoxious, they're just noisy. They seem to be having a good time. If I find them distracting, I move. Drunks and smokers bother me more than noisy players.

[Tedlark]

Then why can't you just say that: table game players are loud? Why do you need to specifically narrow it to "little oriental gamblers?" Or you could say: "I find table games to be louder than other gaming areas in a casino."

[FloridaPhil]

Then why can't you just say that: table game players are loud? Why do you need to specifically narrow it to "little oriental gamblers?" Or you could say: "I find table games to be louder than other gaming areas in a casino."

OK. Some table game players are loud. I find this distracting when I am playing video poker. When I encounter this issue, I move if possible. If the machine I want to play is next to the table games and I have no other choice, I stay and put up with it.

[OTABILL]

This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.

[FloridaPhil]

This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.

OK, how's this?

I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands. An edge, if there is one, is very small. One royal flush can make the difference between long term losing and winning. There is no math that guarantees you will be the recipient of a royal flush now or ever. This is like gambling that a player will hit a grand slam in a world series game.

Advantage players believe having a mathematical edge on the house gives them an opportunity to profit from the game. I believe that is true. What this does is allow them to play more hands with the same money giving them more chances of hitting a jackpot. Nothing they can physically do can force the machine to produce a jackpot. Random is random. Some skilled players will lose and some will win. Playing the best games perfectly is the best strategy we have. It is not and never will be a guarantee of profit.

[Tedlark]

This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.

OK, how's this?

I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands.

Phil are you sure this is accurate?

[Gronbog]

First let me apologize to anyone who feels that this thread was hijacked by discussion of blackjack. Specific questions were asked which I was able to answer and, if fact, it was the originator of this thread who first asked about blackjack. Perhaps I should have started another thread.

The purpose of this post is to comment on incorrect information in FP's most recent post. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it does no one any good to have incorrect facts go uncorrected, especially when the opinions being expressed are based on those falsehoods.

I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands.

Not true, and I'm surprised that you don't know this, since I know you have the VPW software.

If you load 9/6 JoB and then select analyse -> game, you will see the contributions that the various hands make to the total return. You will see that it is 2 pair, 3 of a kind and Jacks or Better, three of the most common hands, which contribute over 68% of the 99.544% return. Quads, straight flush and royal flush contribute less than 9%.

An edge, if there is one, is very small. One royal flush can make the difference between long term losing and winning.

True in the short term, but not in the long term. If you are only one royal away from being ahead on a negative game, then you have not yet reached the long term. On 9/6 Job, one royal is worth only 1.98% of your total coin in.

There is no math that guarantees you will be the recipient of a royal flush now or ever. This is like gambling that a player will hit a grand slam in a world series game.

The same math shows no guarantee that you will ever flip "heads" on a fair coin, but in reality, you know that it will happen. This is a concept that often trips up non-math folks. Yes, in the most technical sense, the odds of never flipping heads is not zero, but it is so close to being zero in the most infinitesimal way that you should treat it as zero. The very same applies to hitting a grand slam in a world series game (has happened many times) to pitching a perfect game in the world series (much more rare, but has happened) or hitting a royal. If you play enough, it will happen, and anyone who enjoys VP enough to participate regularly on an online forum plays enough to make this happen.

Advantage players believe having a mathematical edge on the house gives them an opportunity to profit from the game. I believe that is true. What this does is allow them to play more hands with the same money giving them more chances of hitting a jackpot. Nothing they can physically do can force the machine to produce a jackpot. Random is random.

This is where you go wrong with your thinking which leads you to your incorrect conclusion.

Random is random, but in the long term, it is mathematically structured and predictable. You can't hit jackpot hands on cue, but over time, the number you hit will be within an extremely small range of what is predicted. At that time, someone playing at an advantage will be far enough in the black that being short by a few royals will not be enough to put them back into the red.

Some skilled players will lose and some will win. Playing the best games perfectly is the best strategy we have. It is not and never will be a guarantee of profit.

Some skilled players will still lose, but not because the math predicts it, but because they fail to execute the strategy. They go on tilt, they take pot shots, they play in situations where they don't have an advantage, they are are under bankrolled (yes, being properly bankrolled is part of the strategy!)

One thing that you like to repeat is that you have to play computer perfectly in order to succeed as an AP. This is not true. You are correct that no one plays perfectly, but you don't need to do that. You only need to play well enough that the cost of your errors does not exceed your advantage. I know many APs. I don't know any that are losing due to bad luck against the math.