I play single line Deuces Wild exclusively. My daily results revolve around the frequency of quad deuce and royal flush hands. Experts tell us the frequency of a Quad Deuce is about one in 5,000 hands. My personal experience has proven this to be accurate.
Think about this. If a video poker machine sits on a casino floor and no one plays it, how long would it take for that machine to produce a quad deuce? If another machine is played 24/7 how many will it produce on average? If there is only one Deuces Wild video poker machine in an entire casino won't there be less quad deuce jackpots compared to a casino that has 20 machines?
I sometimes wonder if switching machines helps or hinders me? I like to play in a casino with lots of machines and lots of activity. When I look out over the casino floor, I see 20 machines. I know those 20 machines are producing a quad deuce on average about one every 5,000 hands. If I move around, my odds of catching a quad deuce should be better?
Does this make any sense?
Something to Think About
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FloridaPhil
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Webman
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FloridaPhil
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Why not?
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FloridaPhil
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I may have figured this out myself? The one quad deuce every 5,000 hands is an average. This doesn't mean the machine must produce this result. The 5,000 hands I play is what matters, not the hands the machine plays. Wouldn't a more active machine produce more jackpots per 24 hour period? Playing faster produces more jackpots too. In the case of a negative game, it increases losses as well.
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onemoretry
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That is likely the case. But, so what?FloridaPhil wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:37 pmWouldn't a more active machine produce more jackpots per 24 hour period?
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billryan
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If the chances of you getting a quad deuce is one in 5,000, it doesn't change if you play one machine for all 5,000 or take one spin on 5,000 hands.
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olds442jetaway
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Correct
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olds442jetaway
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However, I know one player, a wacko math geek who does this. He will stand behind someone playing vp for hours pretending the many losing hands are his. After he watches a couple of thousand hands and nobody has hit quad deuces, he starts playing when that player up and leaves. I have seen him hit quad deuces several times within just a few minutes of play. It seems to work for him. I cannot subject myself to that torture. If he sees players he is watching hit quad deuces he goes home without playing. He only lives ten minutes away. Personally, if I have someone behind me for any length of time, I stop playing and pretend I have a phone call etc. technically, his method makes no sense as each hand is independent, but he does well with it.
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Vman96
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Probabilities in video poker are based on hands, not time. It's amazing how many players focus on time and not hands.
If a deuces wild machine literally gets no play, no one will hit four deuces, or anything else. That's pretty obvious if you stop to think about it.
Many people on this forum, and others I post at, will sometimes say, "I haven't hit a royal in X years." I will then ask, "About how many hands have you played?" "I don't know." is a pretty common answer.
If a deuces wild machine literally gets no play, no one will hit four deuces, or anything else. That's pretty obvious if you stop to think about it.
Many people on this forum, and others I post at, will sometimes say, "I haven't hit a royal in X years." I will then ask, "About how many hands have you played?" "I don't know." is a pretty common answer.
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FloridaPhil
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What got me thinking about this were my results over the past six months. Most days, I get to the casino around 10:00 and play solid until 3:00 PM. I take a little time off for lunch and potty breaks. My goal when I go to the casino is to come home even or ahead. That is not possible unless I hit a quad deuce or a royal.
I play mostly 97% quarter single line Deuces Wild at $1.25 a hand. When my daily bankroll was $250-$300 a day, I had more total bust days than break even days. I wished to add a small portion of dollar play to the mix. To allow room, I upped my bankroll to $400 a day. At the same time, my casino added about 20 new video poker machines. They also dropped all the VP odds across the casino, but that's a different topic.
Since making this change, I find I rarely lose all my money. I break even or make a profit well over 50% of the time. Quad Deuce hands are much more common. Something good often happens with my dollar play that puts $100 or $200 back into my wallet. Whenever I can stay at dollar play without losing money, my comps and free play soar.
I asked myself why did this change have such a positive effect? Could the number of new machines make a difference? I agree that doesn't make sense. The biggest contributor is the increase in my bankroll. With 25% more money, I can play more hands which means more chances at a quad deuce or a royal. By adding limited dollar play, I am putting myself in position to receive a windfall. I switch to dollar play and up pops a wild royal or a five of a kind. I cash out which gives me more money to play with. The more hands I play, the more chances at a quad deuce or a royal. Twice so far this year I have cashed a $1,000 quad deuce ticket. I have also hit two $1,000 royals. If I hit a $4,000 royal, it will put me ahead for a long time.
I realize none of this is going to turn a 97% game into a profit maker. It has definitely helped me to go home even more often. Interesting.
I play mostly 97% quarter single line Deuces Wild at $1.25 a hand. When my daily bankroll was $250-$300 a day, I had more total bust days than break even days. I wished to add a small portion of dollar play to the mix. To allow room, I upped my bankroll to $400 a day. At the same time, my casino added about 20 new video poker machines. They also dropped all the VP odds across the casino, but that's a different topic.
Since making this change, I find I rarely lose all my money. I break even or make a profit well over 50% of the time. Quad Deuce hands are much more common. Something good often happens with my dollar play that puts $100 or $200 back into my wallet. Whenever I can stay at dollar play without losing money, my comps and free play soar.
I asked myself why did this change have such a positive effect? Could the number of new machines make a difference? I agree that doesn't make sense. The biggest contributor is the increase in my bankroll. With 25% more money, I can play more hands which means more chances at a quad deuce or a royal. By adding limited dollar play, I am putting myself in position to receive a windfall. I switch to dollar play and up pops a wild royal or a five of a kind. I cash out which gives me more money to play with. The more hands I play, the more chances at a quad deuce or a royal. Twice so far this year I have cashed a $1,000 quad deuce ticket. I have also hit two $1,000 royals. If I hit a $4,000 royal, it will put me ahead for a long time.
I realize none of this is going to turn a 97% game into a profit maker. It has definitely helped me to go home even more often. Interesting.
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