Thinking About Royal Flushes....

[FloridaPhil]

One of the main arguments of the Cheap Strategy is the idea that Royal Flushes are not worth the extra cost of max coin play.  I've been thinking about what it takes to get a royal flush.  Think about someone holding a box over your head as you play.  In the box are 40,000 marbles; 39,980 of the marbles are white, 5 are blue, 5 are red, 5 are black and 5 are yellow.  With each draw are allowed to pick 5 marbles from the box.  Then you are allowed to pick up to 5 more marbles on the second draw.  In order to get a royal flush, you must pick all 5 marbles of the same color out of the box with 40,000 marbles in it!   Some players imagine they keep the marbles so that eventually the royal will come up because there will only be 5 left.  This isn't true because the same number of marbles are in the box each time you draw the first time.  Some players will get more than the average and some people will never get one.  There is no strategy, skill or process that will change this fact of life.  Will you be the lucky one?  That's why it's called gambling. 

[DaBurglar]

One of the main arguments of the Cheap Strategy is the idea that Royal Flushes are not worth the extra cost of max coin play.  I've been thinking about what it takes to get a royal flush.  Think about someone holding a box over your head as you play.  In the box are 40,000 marbles; 39,980 of the marbles are white, 5 are blue, 5 are red, 5 are black and 5 are yellow.  With each draw are allowed to pick 5 marbles from the box.  Then you are allowed to pick up to 5 more marbles on the second draw.  In order to get a royal flush, you must pick all 5 marbles of the same color out of the box with 40,000 marbles in it!   Some players imagine they keep the marbles so that eventually the royal will come up because there will only be 5 left.  This isn't true because the same number of marbles are in the box each time you draw the first time.  Some players will get more than the average and some people will never get one.  There is no strategy, skill or process that will change this fact of life.  Will you be the lucky one?  That's why it's called gambling. 

Very imaginative, and "colorful" () way of describing things Phil.......of course, as your post clearly admits you are simply re-telling what has already been said and what is generally known about Video poker, that in order to be "truly" profitable in the long term, a player must get "lucky" at some point......true, a person SHOULD always follow SOME of the principles of Bob Dancer and TRY to play where and when they have the greatest advantage, but this alone does not ensure long term (or short term) success and profit.Now, on a more personal note and with all the concern for your welfare I can muster for a total stranger, are you ok?   Or are you telling the forum, in a very subtle manner, that you have "lost your marbles"???  Again, good post......

[FloridaPhil]

I think I have an error in my example.   There are actually 52 marbles in the box, not 40,000.  However, the odds of drawing all 5 marbles of the same color are one in 40,000 in a Jacks or Better game. So, it's like having a box with 39,999 white marbles and only one colored marble.  To hit a Royal you must draw the one colored marble out of the 40,000.  Sorry about that.  My marbles are still there, although they are starting to rattle a bit. 

[alpax]

The 52 marbles with 5 marbles of 4 different colors and the other 32 white situation represents the royal flush chasing strategy. The odds might be better than 1 in 40,390 you get for playing 9/6 optimally, but in the long run you'll lose more doing it.

[FloridaPhil]

I agree.  When playing Deuces Wild the odds are more like 1/45,000.   It's mind boggling to me that anyone would think this can pay off long term.   I guess if you are one of the players that gets more than your share of Royals, it would seem to work.... 

[alpax]

In my limited experience with Deuces Wild, the wild Deuces throws a wrench to the approach taken by the player.

Suited AKQJ with a Deuce is more favored than throwing away a Deuce and going for the Royal. (The Dancer/Daily strategy say to never throw away deuces).

The odds get worse with single coin play, where you do not even think much about getting a natural royal, so it goes up to 1 in 45,000 or even 1 in 50,000 for Fooler 20-12-10 Deuces. Therefore, its much better to hope for max coin quad deuces to make up for the loss since it will be 200 to 1 no matter what.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]Therefore, its much better to hope for max coin quad deuces to make up for the loss since it will be 200 to 1 no matter what.[/quote]I believe you are right about this.  I prefer the chance of a higher denomination max coin quad deuce to waiting for a Royal Flush. All involve luck, but the odds of the former are much better.  Royals are all great because they are so rare, but max coin quad deuces keep us in the game.   

[Vman96]

In my limited experience with Deuces Wild, the wild Deuces throws a wrench to the approach taken by the player.

Suited AKQJ with a Deuce is more favored than throwing away a Deuce and going for the Royal. (The Dancer/Daily strategy say to never throw away deuces).

The odds get worse with single coin play, where you do not even think much about getting a natural royal, so it goes up to 1 in 45,000 or even 1 in 50,000 for Fooler 20-12-10 Deuces. Therefore, its much better to hope for max coin quad deuces to make up for the loss since it will be 200 to 1 no matter what.

The best paying penny game in St. Louis it is also correct to throw away a sole deuce on a wild royal even at max bet. It's a game where the natural royal pays 5600 credits instead of 4000. For some reason, this payout exists on several 50/100 play machines with STP nationwide. I still have yet to get the "wacky" $56 royal.

In non-wild games, one coining makes a 4 flush always better than 3 to a royal, so your royal chances significantly decrease there as well.

[FloridaPhil]

I have never seen a Royal bonus over 4,000 coins unless it's a progressive.  That's kind of neat...   

[alpax]

Interesting, I never knew about the 5600 credit royal unless it was a progressive. The other time I've seen a royal that is not 4000 for max coin bet was the Joker Poker which was at 4700 credits. I play mostly single line on the Game King machines and do not get exposed to these odd paytables as much, I have limited access to the other gimmick games which have far worse paytables.

Good luck to you Phil at Biloxi, if things get though, play blackjack at the Beau Rivage (I heard surrendering is allowed there) and video poker on the casino hops since they have better paying tables.