50 machines versus 10 machines

[Eduardo]

(1 x 10) / 10 = 1

[shadowman]

  Also if I can only go to Casino "A" or Casino "B" so many times because of time and money constraints wouldn't it make sense that Casino "B" is a better choice than Casino "A" because everytime I attend Casino "B" the odds are greater because of the greater number of opportunites?
 
If this were true you'd be right. But, for legal games it is NOT true. There are not any more opportunities at either casino. If the machines have the same paytables then you have EXACTLY the same number of opportunities. Each hand you play gives you a 1 in X chance of hitting any particular result. Where X is the inverse of the probability for that result.
 
You can't use your thunderstorm analogy because that would mean the jackpots were coming from a central supplier (the storm clouds). Since each machine is independent then each has it's own set of strom clouds and lightning can only hit the players from their own clouds. 

[pokeherguy]

So in closing the amount of money coming out (jackpots) has nothing at all to do with the money going in.

[Eduardo]

No, it has everything to do with the amount of money going in. It is just proportional. Your examples seem to indicate 10 times the money going in but still only one recipient.
If there are 10 times as many players there are ten times the chances of a jackpot for the room.  But unless everyone in the room has agreed to share the rewards, each player will only see the results of the share they put in personally. So it makes no difference how many other players are there.
 
By this theory, if you walk into an empty room and start playing, your odds would improve if 10 minutes later a crowd of people walked in and occupied the remaining machines? Sorry, doesn't make sense. The machines simply don't work like that.

[MikeA]

I may delete this before posting it because it is rather difficult for me to discuss.All mathematical probability is, is a method of describing something that is likely to happen based on factors that are known and given enough time to accumulate enough data to level the results out.With Video Poker, just as with craps or roulette, each hand is a completely independent trial which simply stated means that nothing that has happened in the past has anything to contribute to the outcome of the next trial or hand.That is the intent of all the legislation we hear about that governs the operation of Video Poker machines in most casinos.  If the casino is abiding by the regulations, then there can be no manipulation of the outcome of any given hand.  That would require a secondary program that would intercept each randomly generated hand and alter the results to render a non-winning or less-winning hand.  Or it would require that cards be omitted from the deck and never be eligible for being dealt or for being drawn.Assuming that these regulations are being followed, then the only thing that can alter the expected return on a machine is "how efficiently you play" and "how much" you are rewarded for being dealt (or drawing) specific hands.  In other words, the player's expertise or skill in strategy, and the paytables on the machines.That means that while the probability for a Royal Flush to be awarded is 1:40,000 (approximately), there are no guarantees that one is going to happen once every 40,000 hands regardless of how many people are playing.  It simply means that every time you hit the draw button, you have a 1:40,000 chance that you will end up with a Royal.Every person in the room has that same chance.  1:40,000 on each hand.  If there are 100 people playing in one casino and only 1 playing in another, then it is 100 times more likely that Royals will occur 100 times more often in the crowded casino than in the vacant one.  But it is no more likely that any one individual in that crowded casino is going to hit more often.I would say that anyone who doesn't believe this principle or who suspects that a casino isn't playing by the rules, should either find another casino or another game.

[ginxxxx]

MikeA.  Thank you for NOT deleting this discussion.

[pokeherguy]

{If there are 100 people playing in one casino and only 1 playing in another, then it is 100 times more likely that Royals will occur 100 times more often in the crowded casino than in the vacant one.  But it is no more likely that any one individual in that crowded casino is going to hit more often.}
 
Okay then given the fact that players are leaving machines and others are moving from machine to machine and like you said it is 100 times more likely that royals will occur 100 times more often than in the less crowded casino would that not meen that you would at least have the chance to hit more where they will be occuring more often than where they are not?
 
By the way I like to argue even if I am wrong.
 

 

[pokeherguy]

{I would say that anyone who doesn't believe this principle or who suspects that a casino isn't playing by the rules, should either find another casino or another game.}
 
I agree with this and finding another casino is easy to do but this idea was brought up by someone I know and I thought it was worth asking. Not playing by the rules have nothing to do with it. It was more of a question as to the possibilities.  

[pokeherguy]

{I may delete this before posting it because it is rather difficult for me to discuss.}
 
?

[clwn2]

Just had to respond.  I am not an expert on video poker machines nor a mathamatician.  Had to get that out of the way.  I think math and probabability have been dicussed in mastery here so far from what I know and have read.  What I would like to add and will be most interesting is my theory based on my experience with VP.
 
Initially, when I first started playing VP 15 years ago, I read all I could find on the subject.   Then I formulated theories based on my experience playing VP.   I started by thinking that it was good to play in a busy casino because the machines are all played a lot and I had a good chance of hitting a machine in a paying cycle.   Then I thought it was better to play when few people were playing because I had a better chance of sitting at that right machine.   I had and still have many ideas and preferences of when and where to play.  Furthermore, I still have a hard time getting my head around randomness and probability.  This is most evident after a trip to Vegas where I have played in different casinos at different times with varying amounts of foot traffic and have had consistently bad luck.  Even after all I know and have learned from various sources it is still hard for me to understand this kind bad luck!     
 
This brings me to my point.  I am grateful that VP is out of the dark ages and that there are many knowledgable players that pass on correct information to those who want to learn.  Nowadays, I use the information that I have learned to make good decisons with regards to strategy and pay schedules.  I like to play often at casinos where I am frequently lucky and stay away from those that I consistently have bad luck in.  There was a casino in my area that I had frequented for 4-5 years.  I never got any royals and my wins were so low that they were suspicious to me.  Of course, I once witnessed a women on the $1 progessive hit the Royal, Aces /2 and 2's/4 in about 30 minutes during one losing night.(she was not even smiling?)  I had to leave before I got sick.  I have since relocated down the road where I am happy playing.  I don't always win but have hit my share of royals and kickers to boot.   For me it is that simple.