MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

I guess the price will be a bit over 13, so that’s why the stock is down. Wish I knew if it creep back up in short order.

I took Fred Hickey's comments as a green light to buy:

https://x.com/htsfhickey/status/1933171264119808017



But I'm going slow because I have enough gold miners already, and I don't necessarily share his enthusiasm for the USA as a jurisdiction. You're probably more favorable on the USA than I am.

There's definitely an ongoing risk of overhead selling pressure around the $13 deal price, but once that clears out I would expect the stock to pop back to its previous level or better. If I get bigger into the stock, I'll try to look at the exact terms and timing.

[dinghy]

All-time high on a red day .

After the overnight runup, gold was almost dull during the regular session.

Bad day for platinum, but it's been poppy the last few weeks and may have just been ready for a pullback.

[FAA]

Bad day for me and the longs. Another Ride It Out prayer session for my people

[olds442jetaway]

Took a decent hit on Friday due to the war. My usual gas station immediately upped the price by a dime. I bought another share of BRK/B and a bit more BGS. My natural resource stocks did well, but are not a big percentage of my portfolio, I’m increasing them as I think the market is overheated.

[dinghy]

My natural resource stocks did well, but are not a big percentage of my portfolio

I remain supersized, but I've been trimming winners to avert further expansion.

Oil had a big week as it anticipated and reacted to the Mideast news. If we get a Monday morning surge, I'll be reducing.

I added a little more PPTA. I noted that Fred Hickey likes it because he favors the US as a jurisdiction. Rick Rule is less enamored:

https://youtu.be/ndbCxCuXYZQ?si=k3Q1RsB4yviFRsor&t=768 (starts at 12:48)

He prefers "tier 1" assets (roughly defined as >5m oz) because it's more economical to operate a large mine, and typically the market awards higher multiples to large operations. Perpetua (at 4.8m) is only just on the cusp of tier 1, and Rick has concerns about the grade and related details. He didn't mention the antimony.

Rick expects the stock will command a premium because of its US location, but he's not sure the "political market favor" is justified. I agree, as I only see dysfunction in DC. The voters mandated "America first" -- but instead the Republicans only have allegiance to Israel, while the Democrats are committed communists.

[dinghy]

Later in the video (44:35), Rick gives his opinion on dividends. This is specifically in the context of Devon Energy, but the topic comes up a lot when gold miners are very profitable as they are now. Gold miners have typically been light on dividends.

"I would always prefer to see capital returned to shareholders by share buybacks. I'd rather pay capital gains tax than income tax. I would rather more if the company could reinvest that capital at high internal rates of return. So my preference would be that Devon had investment opportunities that were so overwhelming that they reduced the dividend. I realize that I'm alone in that regard."

[olds442jetaway]

I like share buybacks too, but if I am going to keep a stock for a few months, I can still get a qualified dividend treatment and get taxed at long term Capital gains rates on the dividends.

[dinghy]

I like share buybacks too, but if I am going to keep a stock for a few months, I can still get a qualified dividend treatment and get taxed at long term Capital gains rates on the dividends.

Fair point.

Gold miners are notorious for their bad acquisitions when flush with cash. Ideally imo, M&A should be conducted nearer the bottom of a cycle than the top.

[olds442jetaway]

I think many of them shoot from the hip as well and are dreamers. Sometimes lucky. Most times not. Cash is still King. So much emergency spending needs can happen in that occupation as well. Just transporting equipment and breakdowns can be overwhelming.

[dinghy]

So much emergency spending needs can happen in that occupation as well. Just transporting equipment and breakdowns can be overwhelming.

Here's the VALE chart from the period surrounding the Brumadinho tailings dam collapse which entombed more than 200 employees:



Friday, 1/25/2019, VALE traded as high as 15.45, but then reversed on the incoming news -- ending at 13.66.

Monday, 1/28, it dropped as low as 11.08 on heavy volume before ending the session at 11.20.

I fear industry safety may be in for a rough ride as personnel decisions are now dictated by identity politics.