A terrible 5 day video poker trip

[shadowman]

this may be way off but I always hear that because AC considers video poker a slot machine that the payoff is really controlled like a slot machine. There have been articles and nobody really has the answer. If it is so random why do many peole say the same thing. I also believe that there are days and times that the machines are turned down. When it gets to be say 10am there seems to be more action and suddenly the machines start paying off?  I have noticed this in Caesars AC? Anyone think this is interesting?  Thanks EP
 
What you're saying is truly believed by the vast majority of video poker players. The fact that it is simply NOT true hasn't changed a thing for all the years I've been playing VP.
 
I once believed many of these myths but discovered the truth by KEEPING STATISTICS for myself. What I discovered is that the human mind seems to focus on certain events and disregard other events. Which events do we focus on? Those that support beliefs we WANT to believe. Change your beliefs or keep stats and you will also discover the truth.
 
I could go on forever with many examples but here's one myth I've heard for years ... "the machines don't pay off like they used to". The truth behind this particular myth is that if you take a large group of people, some subset of these people will be quite lucky when they first start playing VP. They donn't realize they are lucky and establish winning as a norm in their minds. When the luck factor goes the other way and their results are now below the norm they established, they conclude that the casinos CHANGED the machines. They simply have no clue about random events. Naturally, the subset of gamblers who have bad luck when they first start playing usually don't continue to gamble (or gamble infrequently) so you will seldom hear "the machines are paying off better now".

[macaroo]

[QUOTE=ep]this may be way off but I always hear that because AC considers video poker a slot machine that the payoff is really controlled like a slot machine. There have been articles and nobody really has the answer. If it is so random why do many peole say the same thing. I also believe that there are days and times that the machines are turned down. When it gets to be say 10am there seems to be more action and suddenly the machines start paying off?  I have noticed this in Caesars AC? Anyone think this is interesting?  Thanks EP
 
What you're saying is truly believed by the vast majority of video poker players. The fact that it is simply NOT true hasn't changed a thing for all the years I've been playing VP.
 
I once believed many of these myths but discovered the truth by KEEPING STATISTICS for myself. What I discovered is that the human mind seems to focus on certain events and disregard other events. Which events do we focus on? Those that support beliefs we WANT to believe. Change your beliefs or keep stats and you will also discover the truth.
 
I could go on forever with many examples but here's one myth I've heard for years ... "the machines don't pay off like they used to". The truth behind this particular myth is that if you take a large group of people, some subset of these people will be quite lucky when they first start playing VP. They donn't realize they are lucky and establish winning as a norm in their minds. When the luck factor goes the other way and their results are now below the norm they established, they conclude that the casinos CHANGED the machines. They simply have no clue about random events. Naturally, the subset of gamblers who have bad luck when they first start playing usually don't continue to gamble (or gamble infrequently) so you will seldom hear "the machines are paying off better now".[/QUOTE]
 
  Interesting observation.  I personally believe that the casinos have a lot more control of VP machines than they want generally known.  Maybe not in Vegas, but in the less known venues like Indian and OTB style cat II operations.  I play a lot of OTB VP and have seen stuff that would make me believe what I have just stated.  I hope I am wrong, but this is my own personall belief.  Will this stop me from enjoying gambling; no but it has made me cautious and definately alters my playing habits.

[shadowman]

 I personally believe that the casinos have a lot more control of VP machines than they want generally known.  Maybe not in Vegas, but in the less known venues like Indian and OTB style cat II operations.  I play a lot of OTB VP and have seen stuff that would make me believe what I have just stated.  I hope I am wrong, but this is my own personall belief.  Will this stop me from enjoying gambling; no but it has made me cautious and definately alters my playing habits.
 
I've gambled in many states and I have yet to see anything that would make me think a class III machine was anything but random. Now, class II is not random so you are at the mercy of whatever payback the casino chooses to give you (just like slots).
 
Maybe you could be a little more specific.

[7come11]

I've heard a lot on both sides of the RNG issue.  I admit I fall in the camp where I don't believe it. If it were truly random, why would a quad of 2's, 3's or 4's be so much harder to hit than 5-10's.  Just one example.
I've found the majority believe they are more controlled by the casino and slot operators have told me there are certain times when the machines seem to pay off more. I've also been told by table games supervisors that when people are doing good at tables they'll turn the machines down.  Probably just a guess on their parts as well, but they know it's a business and the public companies have profit targets to make to keep the shareholders happy. Turning down machine winnings is the only way they can do that since there is no way they can turn down the roll of the dice or the deal of cards at a BJ table.
Admittedly, I'm one of those who got lucky when I first played VP and won more often than not.
Just my 2 cents, may your winnings continue!

[shadowman]

I've heard a lot on both sides of the RNG issue.  I admit I fall in the camp where I don't believe it. 
 
I think Occam's razor is a good way to look at VP. First, why would casinos cheat? They don't have to. The majority of VP games give them a big advantage without cheating. In addition, almost all states have compacts with Indian casinos or regulations requiring fair and random VP. You're saying you believe these casinos would RISK being shutdown or fined to make a little more money. Doesn't compute.
 
If it were truly random, why would a quad of 2's, 3's or 4's be so much harder to hit than 5-10's.  Just one example. . 
 
They aren't. I keep stats and I KNOW they all hit about the same in LV and in every other state I've played.
 
I've found the majority believe they are more controlled by the casino and slot operators have told me there are certain times when the machines seem to pay off more. I've also been told by table games supervisors that when people are doing good at tables they'll turn the machines down.  Probably just a guess on their parts as well, but they know it's a business and the public companies have profit targets to make to keep the shareholders happy. Turning down machine winnings is the only way they can do that since there is no way they can turn down the roll of the dice or the deal of cards at a BJ table.
Admittedly, I'm one of those who got lucky when I first played VP and won more often than not.
Just my 2 cents, may your winnings continue!
 
You're right ... the vast majority of people believe most if not all of the VP myths. To top that off most casino employees do not know any more about VP than the customers. This enforces the myths and still doesn't make them true.
 
I've actually had people get very angry with me when I tell them whatever myth they are telling me is not true. For some reason people NEED to believe they are being screwed ... but then you see these same people right back the next day.
 

[7come11]

Hi Shadowman - had to look up the definition of Occam's razor.  That's a good analogy. 
I'm not thinking the casinos cheat, more that they can use statistics to say machines pay off more. If a machine hits a pair of queens, they call that a payoff.  There are several VP machines where I play most in MO that state payoff % on each machine, some say as high as 99.8% and one next to it says 99.1%. Obviously either of those are quite well if you win that often and quit while ahead. I think they use the numbers to make consumers that this is their true payout for every player.
They do pay quite well there actually, and much better than Vegas (at least the strip)...but I've done better at the airport than most of the strip machines!
What I know do from a casino manager is they are controlled by programmable logic chips. Engineers can easily set them to pay at whatever rate they choose using standard progamming logic.
With that in mind, they can still keep their %'s and have machines hit more at certain times and play on peoples emotions of thinking they're on a "hot machine".
 
I also have to think if it was truly random, the higher payoff machines "Super Triple Double" for example would be a losing machine if it paid as often as a standard Bonus Poker machine.
 
I certainly respect all thoughts and I know I could very well be wrong and would never get upset if you or anyone told me it was all random.  We're all they're playing for fun and entertainment.  If it's not fun and someone gets mad, they really should be doing something else - certainly can't expect to make a living playing in a casino!
 
FWIW, I played 2 hours of 100 hand DDB poker and counted quads, the 2-4's paid roughly half as often as the others (including Aces).  This was caclulated on a percentage of attempts of each pair dealt.  Did that to give me a higher count.  Of course this was just one 2-hour period so it could be just the opposite next time.
 
Maybe I'll be convinced one day. Just going by a what I've experienced and knowledge of how the finance people work in the casino accounting dept.
 
Best of luck and may we all hit royals and 4 aces!

[rascal]

The VP games that have enhanced jackpots, say $4000 for 4 aces w/kicker in Triple Double Bonus, still have the same profitability ratio for the casino because the payoffs on lower, much more frequent hands are reduced. In TDB 3 of a kind pays 10 instead of 15. On most enhanced games one or more of the lower payoffs is reduced to make up for the enhanced jackpots.
 
Payback on a video poker machine over the course of a year or so yields the casino only a couple of percentage points of operating profit. While some people lose quite a bit on the machine, others hit jackpots, averaging the return to the player in the upper 90% range on most VP machines.
 
This is the best example I ever heard as to how casinos make money:
 
A tour bus pulls up to the casino with 100 people on board. The 100 people each place $100 into a box. Then they all stand in the lobby. The casino manager takes the box, which now contains $10,000, up the top of the stairs overlooking the lobby. He removes $400 from the box and puts it in his pocket --- that's his payback, in this case 4%.
 
Then he dumps the rest of the money -- $9,600 --- down into the lobby. The hundred dollar bills float down, and as they float down the crowd of 100 people below scrambles madly to grab at the bills. Some of the people are very successful and grab quite a few. Others grab only one. But many of the people are not able to grab any at all.
 
Then the 100 people get back on the tour bus and leave. Of the 100 people, several are very happy because they are going home with plenty of money. Others are neither happy or sad, because they at least are taking home the same $100 they arrived with. But the rest of the people are down in the dumps because they lost everything.
 
That is a good analogy for how a casino operates. The casino takes its profit off the top, and the customers divide up the rest --- never on an equal basis. Some get lucky, others do not. 
 
Now, as far as casinos cheating, I used to date an assistant casino manager. She is very smart, a graduate of a top eastern university with an MBA. She once said to me, "Look, once a casino somehow gets a license to operate, it basically has a license to print money. It is a cash cow of a business. Why would anyone risk that license to print money by manipulating the games?"
 
Now as far as 2-3-4 quads, they come up as many times each as other quads, but they do not come up as many times in total, of course, because you are dealing with only three sets of possible special quads, one set of Ace quads, and nine possible sets of regular quads. So of course it only makes sense that regular quads will come up --- on average --- more than twice as often as special quads, simply because there are more regular quads to be dealt or drawn.
 
The only thing the casino can manipulate on video poker is the paytable.
And they do this quite often. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen one machine paying 9-6 while the machine right next to it was paying 9-5. Or even 8-5. But even with this manipulation, it is not foolproof for the casino, because the intelligent consumer can easily pick and choose until he finds a machine with a decent paytable. It is the foolish player or the tourist who puts their hard-earned money into an 8-5 machine.
 
The best thing you can do if you are still suspicious is to take a deck of cards and shuffle it well, and then begin dealing poker hands. Keep reshuffling and keep records of your hands. Over the course of just a few hours of steadily dealing hands you will notice how random the cards are, complete with hot streaks and cold streaks. Well, the RNG in a video poker machine shuffles and deals infinitely faster and more completely than you can.
 
 

[oej719]

Usually those 100 folks on the bus are old people. They can't move as fast as me so I can grab more of that money that the casino manager drops off the balcony. Watch out for those old ladies with canes. They will pop you upside the head going after that money.
Seriously the older ladies usually play pretty smart video poker from what I have seen.

[shadowman]

I'd like to add just a couple things to Rascal's excellent reply.
 
First, I want to commend you for making an attempt to understand whether a distribution is truly random. That is a very good first step. However, there are a few additional thing to remember and I will point them out below.
 
If a machine hits a pair of queens, they call that a payoff.  There are several VP machines where I play most in MO that state payoff % on each machine, some say as high as 99.8% and one next to it says 99.1%. Obviously either of those are quite well if you win that often and quit while ahead. I think they use the numbers to make consumers that this is their true payout for every player.
 
Obviously, anyone can lie with statistics. Everyone needs to understand that these numbers are for a great many hands and cannot be expected every time you play.
 
They do pay quite well there actually, and much better than Vegas (at least the strip)...but I've done better at the airport than most of the strip machines!
 
The payoff of almost all VP machines can be computed. You should never play a machine UNLESS you know what it paybacks.
 
What I know do from a casino manager is they are controlled by programmable logic chips. Engineers can easily set them to pay at whatever rate they choose using standard progamming logic.
 
This is done easily for slots. It's a little tougher for VP because they must change the pay table in order to change the payback. In many cases this will require a change to a face plate as well. Nothing is hidden in VP.
 
With that in mind, they can still keep their %'s and have machines hit more at certain times and play on peoples emotions of thinking they're on a "hot machine".
 
I don't know of any casinos that change the payback of slot machnes, let alone VP machines, very often. It is just not economical. It takes time and manpower to shut down the machines and make the change. Most often it requires a chip change to change the payback. And, as I mentioned before it also requires a change iin the pay table for VP machines. In many states these changes CANNOT be made without a gaming commision representative present.
 
FWIW, I played 2 hours of 100 hand DDB poker and counted quads, the 2-4's paid roughly half as often as the others (including Aces).  This was caclulated on a percentage of attempts of each pair dealt.  Did that to give me a higher count.  Of course this was just one 2-hour period so it could be just the opposite next time.
 
Two hours on 100-play is simply not enough. You get far too few DEALT hands to evaluate. For example, you only get 4RF every 2707 hands. You woundn't expect to see it in a couple of hours of 100-play. Also, I played about the same number of dealt hands on five play SDB yesterday. I had 10 quads, 3 in the 2-4 range and 7 in the 5-10 range. I had nothing in the better j-k or aces. Of course, this isn't enough information either. You probably will need to see around 100K dealt hands to make proper statistical evaluations of quads (slightly less in multi-play games).
 
If you're like most players you will see streaks. For some period of time you will see certain quads dominating and that will change over time. That why it is necessary to keep stats for the long haul.