Nightmare Strategy!

[shadowman]

 Video Poker with 95% losing odds is a loser no matter how you stack it.  Anyway, that’s where I am with this project.

I doubt you'll get any argument from anyone that playing poor pay tables will result in losing a high percentage of the time. That's not an issue. It's the people who claim you can't win playing good paytables that don't make any sense.
 
BTW, we've discussed playing less that max coin on this forum before. The cost is about 1.2%. Sometimes a higher denomination game will pay 2-3% better making a short coin play superior to max coin at a lower denomination.

[brmcc74]

Yes, I do live in Florida.  I started playing Video Poker about 10 years ago and I enjoy it most of the time.  I am a person that attempts to excel at everything I do.  Call it a compulsion if you wish, but that's just me. I have been very successful in business and my personal life is what most people would say is "comfortable".   I play Dancer’s Video Poker for Winners for hours with no errors and still am a long term loser.   In Florida, Video Poker is a game where the odds are seriously stacked against you.  I have come to the conclusion that there is no way to win at this game, at least with the odds we have to deal with.  I have never found a hobby or endeavor that I could not feel good about my results.   Video Poker with 95% losing odds is a loser no matter how you stack it.  Anyway, that’s where I am with this project. Funny as I read this, I couldnt agree more. We are never gonna all agree whether VP is a beatable game or not. I have played the positive games with near perfect strategy and still lost. Im not talking about losing a little at a time either. EI= the maybe -.2& that Ill admit to by not being perfect. Nobody can argue this fact because only I know the hours and years that I have invested and $ into this adventure. I also cant argue the math facts because they have to be correct. After numerous posts between others and Shadow, I have come to the conclusion that there is no clear way to determine the "long run". This would be over the life of a pay table not a machine, since we should be playing pay tables. With this understood, at 11 years into it, it just depends on how we as individuals perceive as a win or a loss at a given time during our personal VP run. I personally can not play anything less than 5 coins on a mach when it clearly penalizes me for doing so. I also believe that each player should play however they see fit since its their $ to win or lose. If that makes any sense.

[spxChrome]

 
BTW, we've discussed playing less that max coin on this forum before. The cost is about 1.2%. Sometimes a higher denomination game will pay 2-3% better making a short coin play superior to max coin at a lower denomination.
 

Yes that is what happened to me.  I decided to play 1 x $5 coin on a 9/6 machine instead of playing 5 x $1 coin on a 8/5 machine.  About 20 minutes into it sure enough a rare 4 card draw RF for $1250 instead of $4000.  Go figure but I didn't feel as bad as I thought I was at least playing the better game.
 
But VP is so streaky I beginning to think the paytable don't matter much in the short-term.  I've played 10/6 machines for hours with nothing and turned to a 7/5 machine SA to hit the Aces for 2k.  So in the short term its more what is hitting and timing than paytables for me.  Don't get me wrong I always look for the best paytable (from my comment above the RF) but sometimes luck and timing is a bigger factor.
 
Oh and I am with you FPhil.  VP is a loosing game.  There maybe a few that still make a few dollars but they will find a way to weed those out over time by lower comps, paytables and games.  They have been moving in that direction for the past couple of years.  My $800 comps are down to $120 and when the next generation of VP machines arrive things will really change.  What is out there now is dated.  Compared to these 3-d whistling cocoons they are installing nowadays.
 
 

[shadowman]

Why is it that the people who claim VP is a losing game are generally playing negative return games? Of course they are losing games, the pay tables tell you that right up front.
 
I understand that the vast majority of paytables are negative and vast number of players are not playing optimally. That is why casinos make money. However, none of that means there are not some players that are playing positive return situations and making money.
 
Everyone needs to keep perspective of the big picture.

[royal flush]

maybe they are playing poorly like the person i saw at palms playing fpdw next to me i kept q,10 diamonds vs throwing all 5 away i hit royal 16125 to 1 shot but correct play before i go paid she kept ace of clubs hit k,q,10,j of clubs to hit royal. you or i would not make that royal

[backsider]

Ive seen plenty of people come on and say they are losers playing positive game, even more than the small handful who claim to win playing them. Id have to see it to believe it anyway and thatll never happen for anyone. But without pause, people believe when players say they lose. Why? Because thats video poker for ya and we all know it. My case is just that either I dont go to where they are or I dont know where they are when I go on trips.

[spxChrome]

Why is it that the people who claim VP is a losing game are generally playing negative return games? Of course they are losing games, the pay tables tell you that right up front.
 
 
That is because most VP is a loosing game and the ones that are not "mathmatically speaking" are only classified as that imo because that is based over a lifecycle that nobody will ever complete in human years.  So its irrevalant.  We are all short-term players. 
 
Then again I am not 100% sure how they calculate that, is it based on a complete combination of pokers hands?  If so that is about 2.5 million hands so if you play "alot" of poker you probally cycle through about 1 million hands a year.  So it would take you 2.5 years to come out on top a few % if you played "perfect" every single hand.
 

[spxChrome]

+ i doubt you will be able to find many games over 100%r in the next few years.
 

[Frank Kneeland]

There seems to be a point  everyone is missing. Short term/long, none of that matters at the moment in time when you first walk up to a machine and pick a path by deciding what to play and how to play it.Imagine for a moment that you had no intention of ever playing a hand in your life and someone asked you which machine in a casino was the best game. You would have to answer them based on the pay-table. No other information would be available.How many hands you intend to play in your lifetime has no impact on this pivotal  moment where you have the choice to pick a game with high return or one with low return...and you then have the choice of playing correctly or ignoring proper strategy. Regardless of which path you take, each will lead to a destination (perhaps the same one), fraught with dangers along the way and some elegant vistas upon which to gaze.But here's the thing, no matter where you end up, you will always have made a bad choice if you picked anything other than the safest path. Surviving a narrow rocky path along a cliff face can never make a decision to take that route a "good idea" when you could have walked down a gentle forest lane.When you meet your friends on the other side they won't cheer you and say, "Wow, wish we'd taken that route, looks like it was fun". No they'll say, "You idiot, why didn't you follow us, it was much safer."Like life, gambling it isn't about the destination, it's about the journey and the decisions you make along the way.  People are so result biased in gambling they hardly ever see this and use any win to justify the worst of decisions. Heard the expression, "The end doesn't justifies the means." Well it is just as true in gambling as it is anywhere else, just a lot harder for people to wrap their head around.Try this mental experiment. You feel lucky and take a shot at Megabucks you happen to get extremely fortunate and overcome the 15% hold and eek out a $500 win. Everyone else on the bank lost their buts. Now your child (just 21) with their saved allowance ($200) walks up and asks you if they should play the same machine you just did. What do you say?People often have an easier time advising loved ones in the correct choices of action than they do following their own advice. If you think, "what would I tell someone else?" and follow it yourself you can put this to work for you.Here's my suggestion: Forget about how long you intend to play or how many hands you'll get out before you die. Live in that perfect single moment of choice and ask yourself, what's the best game I could be playing right now with the highest return.The road is random, so there is no telling exactly where it will lead, but when you reflect back to this moment of decision, you will always know that when given a choice you picked the safest path and your conscious will be clear. ~FK

[shadowman]

That is because most VP is a loosing game and the ones that are not "mathmatically speaking" are only classified as that imo because that is based over a lifecycle that nobody will ever complete in human years.  So its irrevalant.  We are all short-term players. 
 
Then again I am not 100% sure how they calculate that, is it based on a complete combination of pokers hands?  If so that is about 2.5 million hands so if you play "alot" of poker you probally cycle through about 1 million hands a year.  So it would take you 2.5 years to come out on top a few % if you played "perfect" every single hand. 

You do not have to play all possible combinations of hands to win. Over time you will tend to experience more and more of the possibilities. However, even a small subset can lead to a win. The whole idea that optimal play requires playing millions of hands is not correct. Just look at any paytable. All you see is 9-15 possible results. You keep experiencing those results over and over again. How many times have you had two pair or 3 of a kind? How many do you think you need to see to experience the long term averages?



 
The variance of the game is what causes some people to experience wins and others losses. Over time that tends to average out, but in the short term we can experience more wins than losses playing optimally or with any other approach.  
 
There is no magic. Like it or not every hand you play takes you further into long term play. You can claim it's only short term play but that's just an allusion. It's all long term as well.