Talk to me about DDB...

[roveer]

As many may have seen my STP DDB hits over on the "Stories" foum you'll know that I'm partial to DDB.  To add to that, I play at a casino that offers a fairly lousey pay table to boot and yet I still play.  Almost 2 strikes against me right.
 
I have been reading some of Bob Dancers old newsletters and came to understand that he pretty much despises DDB and basically won't play it unless it's tied to a promotion that he's interested in.
 
Is DDB really a bad game to play?
 
I've just concluded my first year of what I consider "active" play where not only did I set out to improve my gameplay (using trainers etc), but also raised my bankroll and thus denomination.  I now play dollars pretty much all the time.  To add to that, I play 5 and 10 hand STP which results in 30 and 60 dollar hands.  As a result I surpassed 1MM coin in this September.  At some time during the summer things came together and I've been fairly consistant at winning and unless I decide to go too far (which I have), I usually come home with a profit.  I say usually because a couple of trips ago I really ran myself into the ground and have had to refill that hole over the past 3 trips.  Here's hoping I pull the plug before letting that happen again.
 
So, I'm interested to understand why DDB is an undesirable game.  Understand I do not play like BD nor do I play at his denominations.  Is there a flaw with DDB or does it not compare favorably to other games?  Since I've kind of got my game into maintenance mode (don't have much room to improve except the last 3-4% left for perfect play), I'm trying to continue refining my stratedgy and one of those things is to take a close look at the games that I play and decide if I should consider going in a different direction.  I will admit, it would be pretty hard to pry me away from STP DDB, but if there is a real disadvantage to playing that game, than I just can't be stupid and ignore it.  You see, to me, the enjoyment is winning, not playing.

[spxChrome]

I really can't stand DDB, the only time I really play it is when the progressive is over $5,300 or I am forced to at casinos that don't offer anything else.  To me it is one of those games that looks good on the outside with the 2k AWAK and various 800 & 400 but those rarely come minus the AWAK (I'll post my numbers at years end, I track all quads no matter the game) Add that to the fact its a hard game to come from behind on I can't stand it.  I mean its easy to get in the hole $1,000+ before even hitting a 250 quad.  Then you have to hit the AWAK or RF to get back and that happens less if at all.  I play mostly TDB, here I can get down and make a quick come back with a hand or two.  Or I can hit a quick hand and be done for the day instead of chasing my tail for hours trying to win a few hundred dollars.  But that is just me, I play single line $1 sometimes $2 and even $5 on occasion.  And I also play to win, I'm not retired and killing a day.  If I have to I can play DDB but if I had to play anything else like JOB or BD or ugly deuces I probally won't bother playing.
 
eta: the TDB I pay is 9/7

[BOOPSAHOY]

I used to only play ddb but now I much prefer white hot aces, no kickers to worry about.

[SleazyRider]

I have been reading some of Bob Dancers old newsletters and came to understand that he pretty much despises DDB and basically won't play it unless it's tied to a promotion that he's interested in.

 
Kindly provide us with the reference to the newsletter issue number and the actual quote of Bob Dancer.  You will find that he refers to 9/6 DDB (98.98%), and also the Standard version of DDB not STP.  Why wouldn't he play 10/6 Standard DDB?

 

Is DDB really a bad game to play? 

 
The phrase is meaningless.  What is relevant is DDB with a specific pay table so that the expected value (EV) can be computed.  The 10/6 (100.06%) Standard Version of DDB is perfectly playable. The rare 40/10/6 (99.96%) Standard Version of DDB is probably playable when taking into account cash back and/or other comps.  Someone else will have to provide you with information on how to get the EV for STP DDB etc.
 

[shadowman]

The big reason DDB is popular is because of the high variance. Higher variance leads to more session wins and bigger losses when you do lose. Over time the game returns close to your ER like all games. However, you can have entire years where you play above expectation and really bad years as well. 

 
It's not a good idea to base one's view of a game based on short term results. They will average out eventually. I always look for the best ER that I can manage and that will generally be the most profitable in the future.

[New2vp]

Someone else will have to provide you with information on how to get the EV for STP DDB etc.You can get the return of a STP game by multiplying the return of the base game by 1.0027778 (or more precisely 361/360).It's easier to use the following table to estimate the return quite accurately in your head since most of us can add easier than we can multiply:Add 0.28% to the return if the base game returns more than 99%;
add 0.27% to the return if the base game returns between 95.4% and 99%;add 0.26% to the return if the base game returns between 91.8% and 95.4%;add 0.25% to the return if the base game returns less than 91.8%.If you are exactly at the breakpoints of this table, if you want, average the addend to your return (99% implies an add-on of 0.275%; 95.4% implies 0.265%; 91.8% implies 0.255%).Obviously, if you find yourself at the lower lines of the above table to calculate return, you probably will want to choose some other pastime.

[brmcc74]

DDB is probably the easiest game to find where Im located. Very cruel game at times due to the variance. On a hot session though it can be incredible. 

[spxChrome]

 It's not a good idea to base one's view of a game based on short term results.
 
These short-term and long-term phases get thrown around all the time but what does it really mean.  To me we are all short-term players.  I mean how manys hands do you have to cycle to reach the 98.9% return.  There are millions of combinations.  Given if you play 1+ million hands a year which is alot you still have to play how many years to get to the advertised return?  And is that based on a single machine or a single player?  So you have to play the same machine for multiple years without anyone else playing the machine? There is alot more to it than just saying short-term and long-term player. 

[shadowman]

The number of hands to get close enough to the ER to feel comfortable varies based on the variance of the game. Most regular players will play millions of hands in their lifetime. More than enough to be considered log term no matter what game they play.
 
Also, there is no magic line that separates long term from short term. As anyone plays they slowly approach their own ER for the games they play. You can't claim the probabilities don't effect you because you don't consider yourself to be a long term player. The probabilities are simply a description of the realities of any random set of events such as VP hands.

[New2vp]

These short-term and long-term phases get thrown around all the time but what does it really mean.  To me we are all short-term players.  I mean how manys hands do you have to cycle to reach the 98.9% return.  There are millions of combinations.  Given if you play 1+ million hands a year which is alot you still have to play how many years to get to the advertised return?  And is that based on a single machine or a single player?  So you have to play the same machine for multiple years without anyone else playing the machine? There is alot more to it than just saying short-term and long-term player. We can get a precise answer (or at least precise within several decimal places) if we ask questions like, "How long will it take before we are 90% certain that we will have a return that is within 0.1% of the expected return if we use a computer perfect strategy?"  But the funny thing about this is that answering such a question often will have little effect on the thinking of or the choices made by the poser of the question.For 9/6 DDB, that answer is 113,592,191 hands.  There is a formula to determine this that is a little hard, but not overwhelming:  (1.644854^2 x Variance of Game) / (0.001^2).  But, now that you know the answer, does that change anything at all in terms of what decisions you will make in the future??We could vary the confidence level (90% here), the deviation (0.1% here), or the strategy (e.g., we could use a basic strategy rather than computer perfect strategy) and get different answers.The number 1.644854 is the 5% cutoff point of the normal distribution.  If we used a 95% level of certainty, we would want to substitute in the value 1.959964 instead.  The value 0.001 is from my choice of how close to the expected return we hope to get.  The variance for 9/6 DDB is 41.984981.That same formula would suggest that with slightly over a million hands, we would be 90% certain to be within 1% instead of 0.1%.This is an approximation to be sure.  It is more difficult but not impossible to determine these numbers without appealing to the idea that for large numbers of hands, luck or random errors of an average will tend to be occur according to a normal bell-shaped distribution.  (But I'd rather not write a program at this point just to get a slightly better answer, especially when it won't help anyone much in the best way to choose a game.)I do agree with shadowman that it's a better idea to base decisions on ER than short-term results.   He could have said that ER is more predictive of the future than ANY past results, short-term OR long-term.  Bad luck with a random generator even for 5 years is not indicative that you will have bad luck on your next visit...assuming the guy with 5 years of bad luck still has any bankroll left.spx, I do like the start and the end of your post (blue font) better than the statement that I put in bold font.  I agree that people toss around the use of short-term and long-term without defining them.  But when you are questioning this use by others, I don't think you should join them by saying that you think everyone is a short-term player...without defining what the terms mean.