Real Life Play vs. the Numbers?

[FloridaPhil]

The quarter deuces pay schedule in these parts is 20/10/9/4/4/3/2/1. According to my software, this game returns 96.45% long term when played with 5 coins and perfect play.  Playing dollars gets you a 25/15/9/4/4/3/2/1 pay schedule.  Playing this game with one coin pays 97.686%.  This is practically a 1% difference. I've always thought one coin dollars was a better play.  In real life the numbers may not be telling the whole story.   Assuming 800 hands per hour, the hourly action would be $1000 at five coin quarters and $800 at one coin dollars.  Does this mean that by playing one coin dollars my theoretical hourly loss is only being reduced by about $10?  Having a winning day at Deuces is all about getting 4-deuces or a Royal. If I hit a Royal with one coin $1s, I'm getting $200 instead of $1000.  Also, quad deuces are paying $50 less each time.  If I don't get 4-deuces or a Royal I'm paying $250 for a couple of hours of fun, but that's the worst of it.I realize I'm playing a negative expectation game so being a winner long term is out of the equation and that reducing my total action reduces my losses.   "Is it better to be hit by a car or a truck?"  I don't know, but until I give up video poker all together I guess I'll have to keep trying to figure that one out.  

[BillyJoe]

That is why, Phil, I opt for higher volatility games, like TDB, and then establish Win/Loss Stops so I don't get obliterated. As opposed to DW, I can get some 'premium ' quads, in addition to an RF, with sizeable returns. Can't do that on DW. Still a negative EV game, of course. Although I am giving up some on the low end (10 coins for trips), I play for the quads. If they don't happen, I have a Loss Stop.
 
Tampa Seminole Hard Rock does not have TDB, which is why I don't frequent it often.
*** UPDATE ***
I stopped at the Hard Rock today, since I was over that way for a doctor appointment, and I had some FreePlay that they sent me. I actually found TDB single-line in Hi Limit, $5 and up, but only a 9/6 pay table.  
BTY, your favorite VP machine, with the view of the pool, was 'nested upon' by a guy playing one quarter JoB. Never got to play it.

[FloridaPhil]

I used to play DDB consistently for the same reasons.  Unfortunately, at the quarter level I usually gave back my good wins before I left the casino.  I want to be able to play for a least a couple of hours, so you know the rest.   These days I only play dollar or fifty cent  DDB $20 at  a time strictly as a pot shot.  It always amazes me when I hit a nice quad doing that.  This year it seems to be happening for me more often. I like Deuces because it's exciting, I can play it longer with the same money and it has the 4-deuce jackpot.  The strategy is more complicated for me, which slows my play way down and allows me to play longer.I'm on my way to Miami to visit my son.  I'll be stopping by the Gulfstream Park casino for a couple of hours.  The .25 VP odds are better there than at the Hollywood Hard Rock.

[moneyla]

I used to be a triple double bonus, and a double double bonus player and even after hitting royals including some progressives I found myself always in the hole. then I switched to 8/5 Bonus and 8/5 aces and faces which has a lot less volatility and by lowering my win goals I found that I could leave the casinos with more consistent wins. My last trip was on $1 8/5 Bonus playing only $165 of free play, and cashing out $180.  I just ran through my free play and caught some two pairs and just one full house along with paying pairs which allowed me to convert free play into real cash. The issue really is not hitting the big winners, but adjusting your win goals to modest levels.

[FloridaPhil]

I've been back and forth with this issue for many years.  Two things are certain;  "if you play quarters, you'll win quarters" and "if you play negative expectation games, sooner or later you'll be a loser".   I've adjusted my mental attitude and don't have a problem paying to play and with walking away with a small win.   These days, I play what I enjoy (.25 deuces mostly) and take a $20 shot at $1 DDB once in a while.  It keeps the game exciting for me and allows me to control my session budget.  I used to play DDB all the time, but I always gave back my wins.   I have to say that Video Poker is the most challenging hobby I have ever been involved with.  For me, the bang for the buck is well worth the cost.  

[BillyJoe]

Two things are certain;  "if you play quarters, you'll win quarters" and "if you play negative expectation games, sooner or later you'll be a loser".   
Phil, I agree with your first statement, but disagree with the second. If your Win Stops are more frequent than your Loss Stops on a negative EV game, you will win. If you play negative EV games until you exhaust your bankroll, however, you will do just that - exhaust your bankroll.

[shadowman]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil] Two things are certain;  "if you play quarters, you'll win quarters" and "if you play negative expectation games, sooner or later you'll be a loser".   
Phil, I agree with your first statement, but disagree with the second. If your Win Stops are more frequent than your Loss Stops on a negative EV game, you will win. If you play negative EV games until you exhaust your bankroll, however, you will do just that - exhaust your bankroll. [/QUOTE]
 


A true statement, just not one that anyone can count on. Most people will see more losses than wins on negative games. You've been lucky.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe][QUOTE=FloridaPhil] Two things are certain;  "if you play quarters, you'll win quarters" and "if you play negative expectation games, sooner or later you'll be a loser".   
Phil, I agree with your first statement, but disagree with the second. If your Win Stops are more frequent than your Loss Stops on a negative EV game, you will win. If you play negative EV games until you exhaust your bankroll, however, you will do just that - exhaust your bankroll. [/QUOTE]
 


A true statement, just not one that anyone can count on. Most people will see more losses than wins on negative games. You've been lucky.[/QUOTE]
With regard to being lucky, absolutely. I will take a lucky VP streak any time. If you set your Win Stop Point 3X or 4x higher than your Loss Stop Point, you can have more Loss Stop sessions than Win Stop sessions, but still win money.

[FloridaPhil]

Here's what happens in my video poker world these days.   I have three goals each time I make a weekly trip to the casino.  Goal #1 is to be able to play at least 2 hours per session with the $300 in my pocket.  Goal #2 is to have a decent chance at a Jackpot at least equal to my $300 cash in.    I hit a $1000 Royal only about 2-3 times a year, so I don't really count those (although they are always nice).   Goal #3 is to try to walk out at least even after 2-3 hours of play.   My jackpots are usually made up of quad deuces quarter play or 4-of-kind DDB $1 plays. In about 35% of the sessions I either get at least one 4 deuce quarters for $250 or a 4-of-kind dollars up to $2,000.  I cash out all of these and put them in my wallet until I leave.  The trick has always been determining when to switch from quarter deuces to dollar DDB and when to leave the casino?   Obviously, there is no way to predict when a quad is coming, so all you can shoot for is consistency.  If you play too much DDB, you might as well throw the whole $300 in the machine and try to get lucky or walk out in 30 minutes broke.  I've been experimenting for years trying to get the best balance between .25 deuces and $1 DDB.  I think I'm about as close as I am going to get.  I record all my cash in as well as quads or better jackpots and I'm a tiny bit ahead for this year.  Last year was horrible, but I'm coming back.  I realize this style of play probably drives the pros crazy, but when you are tilting at windmills you need some faith in what you are doing or you might as well give up video poker forever. This play style works better for me than anything I have tried before and I've been playing for about 8 years.   I'm definitely not a long term winner and don't expect to be.  I'm having fun and not doing too bad considering the odds are against me.  "There are no bad plays if you win."

[shadowman]

Phil, I don't think your approach is bad at all. You've identified your goals and are using a method of play that optimizes achieving those goals. Looks pretty good to me.
 
Of course, if a person has other goals then your method is probably not right for them.