Gold Exclusive
My Favorites
A year of Quads in 2012
-
spxChrome
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 819
- Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:21 pm
A year of Quads in 2012
I know its already March but I just havn't had time to add it all up till now. As for the past 3 years I have kept up with every quad hit. This year I played alot more 9/7 TDB bonus I would say about 70%, 9/6 some 9/5 DDB 25% rest in whatever. 99% single line. Strategy change this year was holding the little one with dealt little trips in TDB. Holding 3 suited cards instead of a single A and throwing away rags instead of keeping a little one. All quads at a casino no for fun play. A - 118 / 33 wak2 - 110 / 34 wak3 - 78 / 28 wak4 - 116 / 44 wak5 - 836 - 1027 - 1108 - 919 - 9110 - 100J - 76Q - 90K - 176 ! RF - 11SF - 51 Quads - 1 / 550 handsRF - 1 / 77,950AWAK - 1/25,980ACES - 1/7260 Roughly 860,000 hands, quad ratio is much better than last year but the variance is still pretty wide as in the Kings vs 3's. And the RF @ 1 in 78k hands was a joke but the higher than normal A count over the past years made up for it. I don't know what the "lifecycle" to calculate ER is but I have 4 years of data now which should be close to 4.5+ million hands played that I should put together.
-
DaBurglar
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 4535
- Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:11 pm
awesome data I've got 15(plus) years of data, but some years (the early ones) are incomplete as I was learning and making it up as I went along. To add up all my 15 years IN DETAIL would take more time than I want to.....
-
Vman96
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3298
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am
Thanks for sharing spx. If most of that data is TDB, you're also running behind in the quad Aces count too. :(
And holding 3 suited can be better than an Ace in TDB, but if its Ace vs. something like A26 suited, then it's marginal. Having something like AJ5 suited, then you're better off holding that. And holding 3 to a flush with 0 high cards, holding the ace becomes a lot better. I'm impressed some you guys can stomach that game, it's a big rollercoaster, imo, and the strategy is less intuitive than DDB.
And has for "lifecycle" goes, there is no set point to calculate ER at. You would just need to run a boatload of 860k hand simulations, and see how your expected return is influenced by the game. Theoretically, the way to calculate expected return is to calculate all the possibilities of the game and weight them by their expected probability. But since the machines are supposed to give random outcomes, finite samples will never exactly match ER. The longer you play, however, the closer your actual return should approach ER (minus errors of course).
And holding 3 suited can be better than an Ace in TDB, but if its Ace vs. something like A26 suited, then it's marginal. Having something like AJ5 suited, then you're better off holding that. And holding 3 to a flush with 0 high cards, holding the ace becomes a lot better. I'm impressed some you guys can stomach that game, it's a big rollercoaster, imo, and the strategy is less intuitive than DDB.
And has for "lifecycle" goes, there is no set point to calculate ER at. You would just need to run a boatload of 860k hand simulations, and see how your expected return is influenced by the game. Theoretically, the way to calculate expected return is to calculate all the possibilities of the game and weight them by their expected probability. But since the machines are supposed to give random outcomes, finite samples will never exactly match ER. The longer you play, however, the closer your actual return should approach ER (minus errors of course).
