Food for thought

[Lucky Larry]

Interesting discussion.

Randomly Generated Thoughts;

Wiser legal scholars and mathematicians can correct me as I'm generally always willing to listen to input.

My RGT are based on almost 8 years of playing VP and lots of hands each year since I play 50/100 play for 6-8 hours 40-50 times a year. My 2013 W/L statement from Isle showed 704 hours of play all on multi-hand and 3500+ hours since Jan. 2008 when we started play at the Isle. Sweet C had 600+ and 3,253 hours during the same time. Not sure how she was short-changed since she can stay up later then me. Oh yeah! I get up earlier....
Anyway here goes:

The RNG is probably spinning at all times like a gyroscope on a instrument.

I don't believe in the "cycles" that the host discussed. When I sit down every hand has the same random odds as the next hand. Timing streaks of big hits do come and i'll ride them and when my timing goes I try to alter my timing until the next hits.   Consider this analogy. Research shows that if you miss just a handful of days of being invested in the Stock Market you can lose the entire year's growth.

The key to winning is "timing". Did you catch the RNG at the right micro-nano second or whatever its called!

Win streaks come and go. I've sat at the same machine and caught nothing for hours, taken a break and twice in the past four trips came back for two hand pays. Last spring I went through a steak of a RF on six consecutive trips and 4 RF in one 24 hour period. Then went months without.   I've been dealt multi-hand RF six times in the past 4 years (two times within 26 days in two different states) and a third six months later and then went for 3 1/2 years until it came again in December after coming back to the "frozen machine" I'd played for hours.

II'm not sure whether there are truly less people are playing or whether its a combination of more casino choices (spreading out the play) and/or less people have the discretionary money to play.


At our favorite casino, the majority of VP players playing the 50/100 play machines are playing small denominations (1¢.2¢) and a small number of hands to extend their entertainment $ as long as possible. There are exceptions - two players I casually know come and play 100 hand 25¢ ($125/hand) and up to $250-$300/hand $ VP. In the High Limit area $100/Slots are frequently cashing out but a multiplier hit on $100 slots gives a quick hand pay. Are there really that many people who can play $100/pull or few that are hitting frequently? The La. Gaming Reports show the biggest Lake Charles casino still pulls in $1M/day average for the past 3-4 years. Even with the new Golden Nugget next door. La'Berge du Lac used to fly its whales in on its seaplane... now they fly in on Fertitta's corporate helicopters to the Golden Nugget and play both casinos.

Now my brain hurts and i'm ready to go to the casino but Sweet C says I have to go to work half a day tomorrow before we can go over. The price of being semi-retired.

[notes1]

LL, generally agree with much of what you stated. i do not know if overall VP is less or just more casinos, but i absolutely know that some casinos have much less play, as opposed to pre-recession.  i would never accept the word of a host for most anything, they are salespeople, does not make them bad, they are there to sell the customer on a product...gambling. so, i do not know if 'cycling' is even the right word. even if one believes in the randomness of the RNG, less play means there are less opportunities for any statistical event to occur.   could one go to a machine once a week and hit a RF each time they play that machine, of course. but, what if no one else played that machine between the times they go. even if the machine is truely random, the mathematical odds still must come into play. i do not know if this is called cycling, but that is how i think of it.   

[ko king]

I really enjoyed reading everyone's post and value the information that fellow players contribute. I've played the game for about 20 years now and I've heard pretty much everything from other players and even casino employees concerning the games, until the last few years I pretty much laughed them off but I'm kind of open to suggestion anymore. Here's the deal, I can go play at a casino that I know is now struggling, they just don't draw many players anymore. I mentioned that most times I'm the only person playing vp at that time, now the pay tables haven't changed but the play is horrible, I'm not talking about winning money, I'm just talking about being able to play for a while, the games just gobble your bankroll up in no time at all. Earlier in the thread I mentioned another casino that is growing by leaps and bounds just a few short miles away from the casinos my play has taken a nosedive at. That casino is packed and the vp machines see a lot of traffic, I have no complaints about that place, they have the same pay tables and games but the there is no comparison in the quality of play I receive there. The only and I repeat only difference I can see with my own eyes is the amount of people playing the games. The obvious answer is of corse to not play at the casino or casinos my results are suffering at but it still doesn't answer the question as to why is it so different. What I see happening goes against everything I ever thought I knew and understood. These are casinos I've played in since the game was introduced in these parts around 20 years ago, naturally over the years I've had my share of ups and downs but neither stuck around for long, this is very different from anything I've ever experienced. Now If the games have truly not changed and I have truly not changed there has to be some other outside influence having an effect on the outcome.

[Lucky Larry]

LL, generally agree with much of what you stated. i do not know if overall VP is less or just more casinos, but i absolutely know that some casinos have much less play, as opposed to pre-recession.  i would never accept the word of a host for most anything, they are salespeople, does not make them bad, they are there to sell the customer on a product...gambling. so, i do not know if 'cycling' is even the right word. even if one believes in the randomness of the RNG, less play means there are less opportunities for any statistical event to occur.   could one go to a machine once a week and hit a RF each time they play that machine, of course. but, what if no one else played that machine between the times they go. even if the machine is truely random, the mathematical odds still must come into play. i do not know if this is called cycling, but that is how i think of it.   

Just a thought, we live near an intersection where the traffic control lights are automatic - 30 seconds for each direction and not triggered by a driver crossing the trigger plate. They operate at the same timing and sequence at 4:30 pm and 4:30 am regardless of the amount of traffic.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1]

LL, generally agree with much of what you stated. i do not know if overall VP is less or just more casinos, but i absolutely know that some casinos have much less play, as opposed to pre-recession.  i would never accept the word of a host for most anything, they are salespeople, does not make them bad, they are there to sell the customer on a product...gambling. so, i do not know if 'cycling' is even the right word. even if one believes in the randomness of the RNG, less play means there are less opportunities for any statistical event to occur.   could one go to a machine once a week and hit a RF each time they play that machine, of course. but, what if no one else played that machine between the times they go. even if the machine is truely random, the mathematical odds still must come into play. i do not know if this is called cycling, but that is how i think of it.   

Just a thought, we live near an intersection where the traffic control lights are automatic - 30 seconds for each direction and not triggered by a driver crossing the trigger plate. They operate at the same timing and sequence at 4:30 pm and 4:30 am regardless of the amount of traffic. [/QUOTE]
 i have never been known as the brightest bulb in the box, so please expain the analogy. if the machine were set to pay off a RF every number of hours or time frame, no matter the amount of play, that would be a sure fire way for the casino to go broke.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Lucky Larry]Consider this analogy. Research shows that if you miss just a handful of days of being invested in the Stock Market you can lose the entire year's growth.[/quote]Great thought!  This is the heart of the matter right here.  Our perceptions are based on our individual observations.  Two advantage players go to the same casino and play exactly the same game.  Over the same period, the first player goes to the bathroom or whatever while the RNG spits out 2 Royal flushes in a row. The second player hits the two Royal flushes.  The first player thinks the games are rigged or there aren't enough players or some other unrelated reason.  The second player thinks the casino is a money machine.  Premium hands are a very rare event. Skill, perseverance and strategy will only get you so far in video poker.  You need luck to win long term and nothing can change that despite what some people are selling.  The posted odds are based on infinity and none of us will be on this earth that long.

[Tedlark]

In my opinion Vman's representation of the RNG is accurate.I do not believe the host when they said there was a "secondary chip" controlling the outcome of the game because this would fly square against gaming regulations saying that nothing outside of the RNG can control the outcome of a game. The RNG does not communicate with the denomination portion of the game so it does not know what denomination the player is playing at. Here all the RNG would be concerned about is the pay schedule payoff for any win that may be registered at that time.

I have had multiple royals and premium hands on the same machines many times, including recently. I have been known to play the same machine for long stretches and not roam from machine to machine. Players are different and some will drop a 20 into a machine and leave that machine if it doesn't hit,then move on to a different machine and repeat the routine.I amnot against this but it just doesn't happen to be my playing style.

Is there a certain amount of luck and timing involved with playing video poker? The knowledgable players would all say yes but this also includes an accurate amount of perfect play too. Have there been times when I was dealt trip aces or four to the royal and I went with a routine?Absolutely but the routine ultimately had nothing with me catching that 4th ace or filling in the royal; that was all luck and timing.

While playing off some freeplay last week, both on 3/17 and 3/21, I got AWAK while playing TDB. I walked out of the casino not long after hitting those but not before I lost a bit back. I left up several hundred both times but I could have leftwith more. Discipline comes into play but I would rather leave up a few hundred instead of leaving down a few hundred or more. When I hit a premium hand such as AWAK ora royal I immediately think to myself what I can do with the extra cash and that helps me determine how much discipline to leave I should expend.   


Edited to add:Could the host have been thinking about a "tournament chip" when they mentioned use of a secondary chip?

[FAA]

My 2013 W/L statement from Isle showed 704 hours of play all on multi-hand and 3500+ hours since Jan. 2008 when we started play at the Isle.
Huh? My CET won/loss doesn't get that granular at all! It's strictly won or the dreaded loss in parenthesis. How did you happen to latch onto a casino that provides your Hours Played as well? Very transparent!

[ColorMeOld]

......Could the host have been thinking about a "tournament chip" when they mentioned use of a secondary chip?
Ted, that secondary chip might be used to seed/re-seed the RNG.


From the State of Wisconsin Gaming Division web site:

“The Compacts require that Wisconsin tribal gaming operations maintain a set of approved minimum internal control standards (MICS) and rules of play for all games. To assist in this effort, the Division of Gaming has developed a set of sample MICS. These MICS are sample documents that may be utilized in the drafting of tribal MICS, but their use is not mandated by the Compacts or by the Division of Gaming”(emphasis mine)

http://www.doa.state.wi.us/Divisions/Ga ... aming/MICS

Excerpt from the above document section 020.A.:

(4)     Background RNG Activity Requirement. The RNG shall be cycled continuously in the background between games and during game play at a speed that cannot be timed by the player. It is possible that the RNG may not be cycled when interrupts may be suspended.

(5)     RNG Seeding. The first seed shall be randomly determined by an uncontrolled event. After every game there shall be a random change in the RNG process (new seed, random timer, delay, etc.). This will verify the RNG doesn't start at the same value, every time. It is permissible not to use a random seed; however, the manufacturer must ensure that games will not synchronize.

[Vman96]

Thanks for putting that up ColorMeOld! I had never stumbled across WI's "suggested" technical standards. Mostly they've done a "copy and paste" job from GLI-11, which I think most states should do.

One change from GLI-11 they did make that isn't super common, the minimum probability of a machine's top prize must not be less than 1 in 17 million. Most states are 1 in 50 million as suggested by the GLI-11 document. But this rule is the main reason why Super Times Pay machines don't offer 9/7/5 Double Bonus (10X Royal prob. ~1 in 18M). They offer 10/6/5 Double Bonus instead (10X Royal prob. ~1 in 15.4M).

And yes, it is important to note that the tribes do not have to accept these suggested standards, but if they don't they will:

(1) have to write their own...zzz
(2) have that approved by the Division of Gaming and likely annoy them in the process


I know everyone on the forum won't believe this, but do people really think regulatory agencies made up a 48-page document discussing electronic gaming machines up just for fun and to deceive the public?