Probability of Ruin?

[FloridaPhil]

I don't believe there is any way to avoid busting on any one particular day. Just like there is no way to guarantee a win on any one day. Potential "Ruin" is part of the game. You can walk out, but as soon as you come back the same math applies. It is possible to beat the math temporarily on occasion by getting lucky. This may satisfy some Recreational Players like me. Luck is not something you can count on.

[olds442jetaway]

I have to watch bothz. And Ted I’m going to ask the question another way. If i play 5 quarters for 4000 hands on the same 98.91 game, whatare chances I will bust the 500 budget?

[Eduardo]

If one plays regular deuces wild, 98.91 paytable, and has a 500 dollar bankroll...

If i play 5 quarters for 4000 hands on the same 98.91 game, whatare chances I will bust the 500 budget?

8% chance you will go completely bust in 4000 hands.
67% chance you will end up down after 4000 hands (including going broke).
33% chance you come out ahead.

You would increase your odds of coming out ahead if you also set a point that you'd be willing to quit if you were up a certain amount.

How much you are up and down would of course vary, so that has to be taken into consideration. The most you could be down would be $500. You could obviously be up more than that with a royal.

[billryan]

I don't believe there is any way to avoid busting on any one particular day. Just like there is no way to guarantee a win on any one day. Potential "Ruin" is part of the game. You can walk out, but as soon as you come back the same math applies. It is possible to beat the math temporarily on occasion by getting lucky. This may satisfy some Recreational Players like me. Luck is not something you can count on.

Either you have luck or you don't . It's 50-50 so in the end, it's meaningless. Did I hit a Royal because its my lucky day or is it my lucky day because I hit a Royal?

[Eduardo]

Limit your play to 2000 hands and you'll have close to a zero percent chance of going broke.

3000 hands and your odds are around 1.5%

[FloridaPhil]

Did I hit a Royal because its my lucky day or is it my lucky day because I hit a Royal?

[FloridaPhil]

Limit your play to 2000 hands and you'll have close to a zero percent chance of going broke.3000 hands and your odds are around 1.5%

Much of the payback in Deuces Wild is tied up in the royal flush and quad deuce hands. From my experience, hit one or more of these two in a day and you are going to at least break even. Quad Deuces come on average about of one out of every 5,000 hands. They also have a bad habit of not showing up for a long period of time. I have gone as long as 20,000 hands between them. That would be a long 1.5%.

[FAA]

All supporting the adage: you stay, you pay. 600-1,000 hand days. I'm roadkill beyond. It's not worth self inflicted pain.

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks guys for the calculations. FAA....my calculations to probability of ruin says PROBABLY!!!

[FloridaPhil]

Thanks guys for the calculations. FAA....my calculations to probability of ruin says PROBABLY!!!

That's the quote of the day...