Are Paytables Honest
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Re: Are Paytables Honest
I'm going to play devil's advocate. It is interesting that you said "clearly not random" because there is no such thing. Anything is possible comes to mind. And, you're describing ONLY a 2 day test period.
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It is interesting how many people are absolutely certain that there can't be any progamming anomalies. This is interesting when we all know that we can't buy a new piece of software that has had hundreds of thousands of hours of testing and is still buggy. If there are bugs in our software, what makes you think that there aren't bugs in casino software.
In fact, I bought a hand held video poker machine and after playing a lot of games, my wife found an error. When playing deuces wild, it only pays for a flush when you get a straight flush with deuces. At first I didn't believe her but, alas, the infallible machine actually has a bug. It won't matter if I play a billion billion billiion hands, the results are the same every single time.
To answer one question about various machines, I played over a million hands at the same identical machine with the same identical machine number at Belterra. I played that machine because it is the one where I hit 3 royals in a row.
Second, while playing at any casino, my wife watches my play to help me spot any incorrect play and she is the one that helps me record the frequency of events. We switch roles when I start making mistakes.
Third, I observe other players at the casino who appear to be playing the correct strategy and strike up a conversation with them. There are two regular players at Belterra who have begun to keep track of the 2 pair situation that I described. They also play at other casinos. They also agree with me that the Belterra computer fills two pairs much less often than any other machine they play on. The whole bank of deuces wild machines at Belterra seem to have this same characteristic.
The statistics to fill 2 pair is 8/47 and I assure you that it is closer to the 3 percent at Belterra. Two pair comes up often enough in a million hands that the short term variation should be reduced substantially.
It is interesting that this phenomenon occurs over and over on Belterra machines only. Machines at Caesar's, Fremont, Palms and others don't seem to display this characteristic. I can't say this with confidence for Caesar's and Palms because I haven't played a milloin hands at those casinos but I have at the Fremont and the Fremont fill percentage is slightly around 25%. Like I said, they may make up for this higher percentage on 2 pairs by underfilling potential straights or flushes.
In fact, I bought a hand held video poker machine and after playing a lot of games, my wife found an error. When playing deuces wild, it only pays for a flush when you get a straight flush with deuces. At first I didn't believe her but, alas, the infallible machine actually has a bug. It won't matter if I play a billion billion billiion hands, the results are the same every single time.
To answer one question about various machines, I played over a million hands at the same identical machine with the same identical machine number at Belterra. I played that machine because it is the one where I hit 3 royals in a row.
Second, while playing at any casino, my wife watches my play to help me spot any incorrect play and she is the one that helps me record the frequency of events. We switch roles when I start making mistakes.
Third, I observe other players at the casino who appear to be playing the correct strategy and strike up a conversation with them. There are two regular players at Belterra who have begun to keep track of the 2 pair situation that I described. They also play at other casinos. They also agree with me that the Belterra computer fills two pairs much less often than any other machine they play on. The whole bank of deuces wild machines at Belterra seem to have this same characteristic.
The statistics to fill 2 pair is 8/47 and I assure you that it is closer to the 3 percent at Belterra. Two pair comes up often enough in a million hands that the short term variation should be reduced substantially.
It is interesting that this phenomenon occurs over and over on Belterra machines only. Machines at Caesar's, Fremont, Palms and others don't seem to display this characteristic. I can't say this with confidence for Caesar's and Palms because I haven't played a milloin hands at those casinos but I have at the Fremont and the Fremont fill percentage is slightly around 25%. Like I said, they may make up for this higher percentage on 2 pairs by underfilling potential straights or flushes.
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At Belterra, the payback seems lower than what I get anywhere else and as a result of my record keeping, I have stopped playing there. I have had hot streaks and cold streaks and this may sound funny but I know that long term I will lose. That isn't what bothers me if the paytables are fair. But since I have found this problem, I have stopped going to Belterra.
My only concern is that this particular situation was easy to spot. What if the fill rate for 4 of a kind is not correct instead of the one I spotted? It would take a lot more hands to spot that problem but with a situation that should occur 8/47 times, it is a lot easier to keep track over a very long period of time. After all, what is there to do when you are playing a mindless video poker game?
I should also comment that I have taught statistics and probability during my career and that is why I pay attention to stuff like this.
My only concern is that this particular situation was easy to spot. What if the fill rate for 4 of a kind is not correct instead of the one I spotted? It would take a lot more hands to spot that problem but with a situation that should occur 8/47 times, it is a lot easier to keep track over a very long period of time. After all, what is there to do when you are playing a mindless video poker game?
I should also comment that I have taught statistics and probability during my career and that is why I pay attention to stuff like this.
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This observation is not over a two day period. It takes more than 2 days to play one million hands.
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Like I stated elsewhere, I have stopped playing at Belterra. At first I thought that they may underfill 2 pair and overill straights or flushes. However, after 6 months of playing and testing, I have concluded that Belterra's paytables are not correct, at least at the bottom end. As has been stated in all the replies the frequecy of royal flushes can't be determined by playing unless you play 10's of millions of hands. Again, I was not commenting on the frequency of royal's.
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It is interesting how many people are absolutely certain that there can't be any progamming anomalies. This is interesting when we all know that we can't buy a new piece of software that has had hundreds of thousands of hours of testing and is still buggy. If there are bugs in our software, what makes you think that there aren't bugs in casino software.
VP machines have millions of hours of testing. This includes the manufacturers, the gaming commissions around the world and you and I playing them. The chances for a software bug are remote at best. It's more likely the machine has been tampered with.
In fact, I bought a hand held video poker machine and after playing a lot of games, my wife found an error. When playing deuces wild, it only pays for a flush when you get a straight flush with deuces. At first I didn't believe her but, alas, the infallible machine actually has a bug. It won't matter if I play a billion billion billiion hands, the results are the same every single time.
Apples and oranges. That's equivalent to comparing the reliability of two entirely different car makers.
To answer one question about various machines, I played over a million hands at the same identical machine with the same identical machine number at Belterra. I played that machine because it is the one where I hit 3 royals in a row.
Second, while playing at any casino, my wife watches my play to help me spot any incorrect play and she is the one that helps me record the frequency of events. We switch roles when I start making mistakes.
Third, I observe other players at the casino who appear to be playing the correct strategy and strike up a conversation with them. There are two regular players at Belterra who have begun to keep track of the 2 pair situation that I described. They also play at other casinos. They also agree with me that the Belterra computer fills two pairs much less often than any other machine they play on. The whole bank of deuces wild machines at Belterra seem to have this same characteristic.
The statistics to fill 2 pair is 8/47 and I assure you that it is closer to the 3 percent at Belterra. Two pair comes up often enough in a million hands that the short term variation should be reduced substantially.
It is interesting that this phenomenon occurs over and over on Belterra machines only. Machines at Caesar's, Fremont, Palms and others don't seem to display this characteristic. I can't say this with confidence for Caesar's and Palms because I haven't played a milloin hands at those casinos but I have at the Fremont and the Fremont fill percentage is slightly around 25%. Like I said, they may make up for this higher percentage on 2 pairs by underfilling potential straights or flushes.
Now we're getting somewhere. Are these IGT machines? What game are you playing and what is the paytable?
BTW, did you really mean 3 RFs in a row? Consecutive hands?
VP machines have millions of hours of testing. This includes the manufacturers, the gaming commissions around the world and you and I playing them. The chances for a software bug are remote at best. It's more likely the machine has been tampered with.
In fact, I bought a hand held video poker machine and after playing a lot of games, my wife found an error. When playing deuces wild, it only pays for a flush when you get a straight flush with deuces. At first I didn't believe her but, alas, the infallible machine actually has a bug. It won't matter if I play a billion billion billiion hands, the results are the same every single time.
Apples and oranges. That's equivalent to comparing the reliability of two entirely different car makers.
To answer one question about various machines, I played over a million hands at the same identical machine with the same identical machine number at Belterra. I played that machine because it is the one where I hit 3 royals in a row.
Second, while playing at any casino, my wife watches my play to help me spot any incorrect play and she is the one that helps me record the frequency of events. We switch roles when I start making mistakes.
Third, I observe other players at the casino who appear to be playing the correct strategy and strike up a conversation with them. There are two regular players at Belterra who have begun to keep track of the 2 pair situation that I described. They also play at other casinos. They also agree with me that the Belterra computer fills two pairs much less often than any other machine they play on. The whole bank of deuces wild machines at Belterra seem to have this same characteristic.
The statistics to fill 2 pair is 8/47 and I assure you that it is closer to the 3 percent at Belterra. Two pair comes up often enough in a million hands that the short term variation should be reduced substantially.
It is interesting that this phenomenon occurs over and over on Belterra machines only. Machines at Caesar's, Fremont, Palms and others don't seem to display this characteristic. I can't say this with confidence for Caesar's and Palms because I haven't played a milloin hands at those casinos but I have at the Fremont and the Fremont fill percentage is slightly around 25%. Like I said, they may make up for this higher percentage on 2 pairs by underfilling potential straights or flushes.
Now we're getting somewhere. Are these IGT machines? What game are you playing and what is the paytable?
BTW, did you really mean 3 RFs in a row? Consecutive hands?
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If I ever go back to Belterra, I will get the machine type. I think I have worn out this topic and will quit commenting. It is clear that there could not be anything wrong with the machine, just with me.
And... no I don't mean 3 RF in a row. But, given the rareness of a royal flush, they were almost in a row. I play sessions consisting of approximately 6-8000 hands each day. These three RF's occurred once each day along with several sets of 4 deuces. They were quarter machines and on each day I left with a net $1500 profit. I fully suspected that the machines had gone nuts but since that time, I have never gotten a RF on that machine again. This is the same machine that now has the problem I described with two pairs. I don't know if it was that way when I was winning because I hadn't noticed the problem on the first three days.
Regarding all the machine testing, here is another random event, this time with slot machines (I have had 3 of these impossible events happen in my gambling lifetime). This particular event occurred in the late 90's at the Mandalay Bay.
I had lost about $1000 over a one week period playing various slots, not VP. On the last day of my visit to Las Vegas, I found a race car machine that required 25 quarters per game. In about 4 hours on that last day I made up the $1000 loss and actually left with about $200 in profit. In addition, I had circulated about $40,000 in the machine (no more than $200 of mine was ever in the machine - the rest was from periodic winnings).
Because of all this play, the Mandalay Bay gave me free rooms, food, and they invited me to several slot tournaments. Joe Mayo, slot host, and I got to know each other very well. I returned four times over a four month period because each time I played that particular machine, I came away a net winner. On one occasion I won several thousand dollars. On the 5th visit, that machine was no longer there. I asked a slot attendant what happened to the machine. He said they had a defect and were taken off the floor. I asked if it had too high a payback and he said no it just stopped working. But after three days of asking various people about those machines, one drink hostess said that the machines were paying out too often.
Now I don't know if they were taken off the floor because they were paying too much, but all the while I played them, I never lost and on two occasions made a very tidy sum. In addition, the Mandalay Bay thought I was a big fish and invited me to numerous free events and provided free rooms and food.
It may have taken a while for them to discover that these machines paid too much because even though these machines required the user to hold the best choice of symbols for a second spin, very few people made the best choices. I watched people hold the oddest symbols and it was clear why they lost and I won. Also, most people didn't want to play 25 quarters at a time and when fewer than 25 quarters were played, the machine return seemed to be less.
Now again, this is another anecdote, and couldn't possibly be due to a programming error because of the infinite testing by the infallible manufacturer, the gaming board, the casino, etc, etc. However, I have a different opinion and wish that machine were still on the floor.
Since that time, I have found two other outstanding machines, one at the Fremont and one at the MGM. They weren't quite as good as the race car machine, but nevertheless, I never lost any money playing them. And, like the machines at the Mandalay Bay, they didn't last very long before they too bought the slot machine farm.
B the way, I have played a lot of slots and video poker and can pretty much tell machine streaks apart from something that's different. Those three machines weren't in a streak. And that is what I am trying to say regarding the video poker machine at Belterra.
And... no I don't mean 3 RF in a row. But, given the rareness of a royal flush, they were almost in a row. I play sessions consisting of approximately 6-8000 hands each day. These three RF's occurred once each day along with several sets of 4 deuces. They were quarter machines and on each day I left with a net $1500 profit. I fully suspected that the machines had gone nuts but since that time, I have never gotten a RF on that machine again. This is the same machine that now has the problem I described with two pairs. I don't know if it was that way when I was winning because I hadn't noticed the problem on the first three days.
Regarding all the machine testing, here is another random event, this time with slot machines (I have had 3 of these impossible events happen in my gambling lifetime). This particular event occurred in the late 90's at the Mandalay Bay.
I had lost about $1000 over a one week period playing various slots, not VP. On the last day of my visit to Las Vegas, I found a race car machine that required 25 quarters per game. In about 4 hours on that last day I made up the $1000 loss and actually left with about $200 in profit. In addition, I had circulated about $40,000 in the machine (no more than $200 of mine was ever in the machine - the rest was from periodic winnings).
Because of all this play, the Mandalay Bay gave me free rooms, food, and they invited me to several slot tournaments. Joe Mayo, slot host, and I got to know each other very well. I returned four times over a four month period because each time I played that particular machine, I came away a net winner. On one occasion I won several thousand dollars. On the 5th visit, that machine was no longer there. I asked a slot attendant what happened to the machine. He said they had a defect and were taken off the floor. I asked if it had too high a payback and he said no it just stopped working. But after three days of asking various people about those machines, one drink hostess said that the machines were paying out too often.
Now I don't know if they were taken off the floor because they were paying too much, but all the while I played them, I never lost and on two occasions made a very tidy sum. In addition, the Mandalay Bay thought I was a big fish and invited me to numerous free events and provided free rooms and food.
It may have taken a while for them to discover that these machines paid too much because even though these machines required the user to hold the best choice of symbols for a second spin, very few people made the best choices. I watched people hold the oddest symbols and it was clear why they lost and I won. Also, most people didn't want to play 25 quarters at a time and when fewer than 25 quarters were played, the machine return seemed to be less.
Now again, this is another anecdote, and couldn't possibly be due to a programming error because of the infinite testing by the infallible manufacturer, the gaming board, the casino, etc, etc. However, I have a different opinion and wish that machine were still on the floor.
Since that time, I have found two other outstanding machines, one at the Fremont and one at the MGM. They weren't quite as good as the race car machine, but nevertheless, I never lost any money playing them. And, like the machines at the Mandalay Bay, they didn't last very long before they too bought the slot machine farm.
B the way, I have played a lot of slots and video poker and can pretty much tell machine streaks apart from something that's different. Those three machines weren't in a streak. And that is what I am trying to say regarding the video poker machine at Belterra.
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- Video Poker Master
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Monic I don't think you are "wrong," but people will always want some good evidence since things are so regulated and what you describe would be illegal in most cases. A lot of people see trends even in a big sample of randomness so it can be hard not to jump to conclusions and that is what everyone wants to warn against.
I would love to see you explore this further and report back with some actual numbers if you go again and keep track of these details in a chart or something.
I would love to see you explore this further and report back with some actual numbers if you go again and keep track of these details in a chart or something.
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If I ever go back to Belterra, I will get the machine type. I think I have worn out this topic and will quit commenting. It is clear that there could not be anything wrong with the machine, just with me.
No, when faced with this type of situation the most obvious answer is "user error". However, I mentioned the obvious problem I ran into with slot machines and this could be a similar problem. That is, it could be a defect in this particular machine. In many cases some casinos go out and buy used machines to fill up a casino. It is also possible this machine has been tampered with. That is why I asked about the manufacturer, paytable, etc. If it has been tampered with there may be a way to beat it. Possibly holding just one pair in this case will pay off better and the person who tampered with it reduced the two pair hold so the machine wouldn't pay back too much over time. Lot's of other possibilities as well.
And... no I don't mean 3 RF in a row. But, given the rareness of a royal flush, they were almost in a row. I play sessions consisting of approximately 6-8000 hands each day. These three RF's occurred once each day along with several sets of 4 deuces. They were quarter machines and on each day I left with a net $1500 profit. I fully suspected that the machines had gone nuts but since that time, I have never gotten a RF on that machine again. This is the same machine that now has the problem I described with two pairs. I don't know if it was that way when I was winning because I hadn't noticed the problem on the first three days.
My wife has had 3 RFs in a single day two different times. My best is two several times. One of the reasons I asked about consecutive hands was this could be another sign of a possible defect.
Regarding all the machine testing, here is another random event, this time with slot machines (I have had 3 of these impossible events happen in my gambling lifetime). This particular event occurred in the late 90's at the Mandalay Bay.
I had lost about $1000 over a one week period playing various slots, not VP. On the last day of my visit to Las Vegas, I found a race car machine that required 25 quarters per game. In about 4 hours on that last day I made up the $1000 loss and actually left with about $200 in profit. In addition, I had circulated about $40,000 in the machine (no more than $200 of mine was ever in the machine - the rest was from periodic winnings).
Because of all this play, the Mandalay Bay gave me free rooms, food, and they invited me to several slot tournaments. Joe Mayo, slot host, and I got to know each other very well. I returned four times over a four month period because each time I played that particular machine, I came away a net winner. On one occasion I won several thousand dollars. On the 5th visit, that machine was no longer there. I asked a slot attendant what happened to the machine. He said they had a defect and were taken off the floor. I asked if it had too high a payback and he said no it just stopped working. But after three days of asking various people about those machines, one drink hostess said that the machines were paying out too often.
Now I don't know if they were taken off the floor because they were paying too much, but all the while I played them, I never lost and on two occasions made a very tidy sum. In addition, the Mandalay Bay thought I was a big fish and invited me to numerous free events and provided free rooms and food.
It may have taken a while for them to discover that these machines paid too much because even though these machines required the user to hold the best choice of symbols for a second spin, very few people made the best choices. I watched people hold the oddest symbols and it was clear why they lost and I won. Also, most people didn't want to play 25 quarters at a time and when fewer than 25 quarters were played, the machine return seemed to be less.
Now again, this is another anecdote, and couldn't possibly be due to a programming error because of the infinite testing by the infallible manufacturer, the gaming board, the casino, etc, etc. However, I have a different opinion and wish that machine were still on the floor.
Since that time, I have found two other outstanding machines, one at the Fremont and one at the MGM. They weren't quite as good as the race car machine, but nevertheless, I never lost any money playing them. And, like the machines at the Mandalay Bay, they didn't last very long before they too bought the slot machine farm.
B the way, I have played a lot of slots and video poker and can pretty much tell machine streaks apart from something that's different. Those three machines weren't in a streak. And that is what I am trying to say regarding the video poker machine at Belterra.
The casino could have set the machine to a high payback ... either intentionally or accidently. A friend of mine once found a 9-6-5 DB game where they had left two pair at 2-1. What a great game! These kind of situations happen rarely but I've heard many stories like this. It does not mean the machines are working incorrectly. I always keep my eyes open for these kind of situations.
Keep us updated if you do get back to Belterra.
No, when faced with this type of situation the most obvious answer is "user error". However, I mentioned the obvious problem I ran into with slot machines and this could be a similar problem. That is, it could be a defect in this particular machine. In many cases some casinos go out and buy used machines to fill up a casino. It is also possible this machine has been tampered with. That is why I asked about the manufacturer, paytable, etc. If it has been tampered with there may be a way to beat it. Possibly holding just one pair in this case will pay off better and the person who tampered with it reduced the two pair hold so the machine wouldn't pay back too much over time. Lot's of other possibilities as well.
And... no I don't mean 3 RF in a row. But, given the rareness of a royal flush, they were almost in a row. I play sessions consisting of approximately 6-8000 hands each day. These three RF's occurred once each day along with several sets of 4 deuces. They were quarter machines and on each day I left with a net $1500 profit. I fully suspected that the machines had gone nuts but since that time, I have never gotten a RF on that machine again. This is the same machine that now has the problem I described with two pairs. I don't know if it was that way when I was winning because I hadn't noticed the problem on the first three days.
My wife has had 3 RFs in a single day two different times. My best is two several times. One of the reasons I asked about consecutive hands was this could be another sign of a possible defect.
Regarding all the machine testing, here is another random event, this time with slot machines (I have had 3 of these impossible events happen in my gambling lifetime). This particular event occurred in the late 90's at the Mandalay Bay.
I had lost about $1000 over a one week period playing various slots, not VP. On the last day of my visit to Las Vegas, I found a race car machine that required 25 quarters per game. In about 4 hours on that last day I made up the $1000 loss and actually left with about $200 in profit. In addition, I had circulated about $40,000 in the machine (no more than $200 of mine was ever in the machine - the rest was from periodic winnings).
Because of all this play, the Mandalay Bay gave me free rooms, food, and they invited me to several slot tournaments. Joe Mayo, slot host, and I got to know each other very well. I returned four times over a four month period because each time I played that particular machine, I came away a net winner. On one occasion I won several thousand dollars. On the 5th visit, that machine was no longer there. I asked a slot attendant what happened to the machine. He said they had a defect and were taken off the floor. I asked if it had too high a payback and he said no it just stopped working. But after three days of asking various people about those machines, one drink hostess said that the machines were paying out too often.
Now I don't know if they were taken off the floor because they were paying too much, but all the while I played them, I never lost and on two occasions made a very tidy sum. In addition, the Mandalay Bay thought I was a big fish and invited me to numerous free events and provided free rooms and food.
It may have taken a while for them to discover that these machines paid too much because even though these machines required the user to hold the best choice of symbols for a second spin, very few people made the best choices. I watched people hold the oddest symbols and it was clear why they lost and I won. Also, most people didn't want to play 25 quarters at a time and when fewer than 25 quarters were played, the machine return seemed to be less.
Now again, this is another anecdote, and couldn't possibly be due to a programming error because of the infinite testing by the infallible manufacturer, the gaming board, the casino, etc, etc. However, I have a different opinion and wish that machine were still on the floor.
Since that time, I have found two other outstanding machines, one at the Fremont and one at the MGM. They weren't quite as good as the race car machine, but nevertheless, I never lost any money playing them. And, like the machines at the Mandalay Bay, they didn't last very long before they too bought the slot machine farm.
B the way, I have played a lot of slots and video poker and can pretty much tell machine streaks apart from something that's different. Those three machines weren't in a streak. And that is what I am trying to say regarding the video poker machine at Belterra.
The casino could have set the machine to a high payback ... either intentionally or accidently. A friend of mine once found a 9-6-5 DB game where they had left two pair at 2-1. What a great game! These kind of situations happen rarely but I've heard many stories like this. It does not mean the machines are working incorrectly. I always keep my eyes open for these kind of situations.
Keep us updated if you do get back to Belterra.
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- Video Poker Master
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Slot Machines are "programmed" completely different when it comes to determining how to "payback" than are Video Poker machines. A casino can have a bank of machines supposedly identical and yet, they can LEGALLY program each one differently within limits established by the governing body. I mean one might be set to payback 80% while the one next to it might be set to 99%. And, there is NO WAY to tell!I do believe that with Slots in Vegas, the casinos have to apply for verification that takes around 30 days when they change a payback on a machine.Video Poker, however, cannot LEGALLY be programmed in that manner. The paybacks are strictly controlled by the pay tables and those are posted predominately right on the machine. The Casinos and Game Manufacturers are not allowed to introduce secondary programming to change the random deal and draw of the cards.I underscore LEGALLY. No doubt, machines could be tampered with if the casino desired to challenge the observations of the governing authorities and no doubt, at times in the past and probably in the future, such machinations occur(d). Some have been documented. But to bend these rules even a little bit exposes the casino to ramifications that most of them would not wish to have to deal with. The "reputation" in the gaming industry has been so bad in the past that not many wish to come across to the public as anything but glowingly honest angels! The financial impact on violation would probably be nothing more than a hand-slap unless the governing authority decided to revoke their license or something drastic like that.As for bugs in casino gaming software....I suppose it could happen. I doubt that it would be something to consider with the major suppliers of machines though and there are only a couple of makers out there. The simplicity of the basic Video Poker game is quite astounding. The software ONLY has to detect what has been chosen for discard and then select randomly from the remaining "cards" for replacements. The only other programming involves computing the value of the hand and dispensing of the credits. It's not rocket science and bugs would be quickly detected and disposed of before it ever reached the floor.The games on this site (as an example) have never to my knowledge, had any kind of logic bug in the poker computations themselves. There have been bugs now and again in how scores were displayed and some lockups as new features were added, but I do not recall even a hint that the logic of the poker play itself was flawed. "Questioned", yes <LOL> but not flawed.With that said, there are "bugs" that I know of on machines in reputable casinos. On one such machine, credits were awarded at a higher denomination than the player was gambling at! Put $5 in and get $500 out. Something like that. But there was nothing wrong with the poker logic <LOL>But you might have encountered machines that were flawed. All I can say to that is that if it is in YOUR favor, jump all over it! If it is in the Casino's favor, stay away from it and preferably report it to the authorities!