Little help

[Eduardo]

Again with the "hot and cold streak" myth.
 
If you look at new2vp's list, the results in a year can vary greatly, with results generated randomly. There is no "hot and cold" machine play about it. Sure, if you looked at every hand that led to the results he simulated, you would notice MANY apparently "hot" and "cold" areas. This is just a fact with any group of random numbers. But the "machine" isn't hot or cold at this time. Those are just the outcomes that were arrived at.
 
There is no way to determine if a machine is currently "hot" or "cold" until after you draw a hand because every hand is random. Unless you are saying "Wow, that was a hot hand. Wonder if the next one will be too!"  These "streaks" are just the result of playing random hands enough times to see a pattern after the fact, not during play.
 
Of couse, it's easy for that little leprechaun inside us to say "Aha! I knew that was going to happen..." after the fact. Anyone who thinks they can really recognize these patterns would be unable to "call" such a streak ahead of time with witnesses on any sort of reliable basis. But if you sit in front of a machine enough times and play your hunches and dismiss the few times you were "off" in your presumption but anticipate the next, you might end up thinking you have arrived at some sort of pattern nirvana. Unfortunately, you would be just a lonely player in a big world of random numbers trying to make sense of the madness and drawing hopeful conclusions beyond chaos.
 
Listen, it's fun to talk about "hot and cold" days and streaks in our play. They happen. But to think a machine is ever "hot" and give it extra attention beyond the fun of it all is dangerous if you base any sort of strategy variation on it. It's like going for more royals using poor strategy if you think a machine is "due" for its "cycle." The casinos will thank you for trying. If you plug your revised "strategy" in these times into a simulation, you can see results similar to those new2vp posted. Only on average you would be giving more to the casino year to year than someone making the correct holds.

[pokeherguy]

{One other factor.  In those big win years he's going to be out 30% or so from income tax, maybe more for state income tax. So the average yearly loss will be even greater than the mean. }
Yep, been there done that. Since he's played $5 slots for a while I'm sure he does too.

[shadowman]

Thanks for the help, from my understanding those losing numbers can be improved upon greatly when a player learns to recognize the natural "hot & cold" cycles of the machine. I've evidently lost my touch because after years of coming up in the positive return column playing DDB at 98.98% without any comps or points I posted pretty close to that -$25,890.
 
Machines do not have hot and cold cycles. People do. What you thought you knew was simple randomness. Maybe now you'll start to believe me ...

[pokeherguy]

Say what, no "hot & cold" cycles. What you talking bout Willis? Just the other day I was in the casino and one one the slot attendents said to me as soon as I walked in the door that the vp machines were cold, only one jackpot all day. She was right too.

[cddenver]

Sounds like the players were cold, not the machines.  If at some point during the day the players had all switched machines, they'd have been hitting the buttons at different points in the constantly running RNG sequence for each machine, and some nice jackpots might have been hit.  Same thing if they'd decided to take their potty breaks at different times than the times they did.  Even a slight pause for a cough or ogling the cocktail waitress (or waiter) could have changed things for them.  Or NOT pausing for coughs, ogling, or potty breaks.
 
The same would be true (in reverse) for a day where everybody seems to be hitting something.  Have the players switch machines, change potty break times, etc., and you could suddenly end up with a bank of "cold" machines.
 
How hot is "hot", anyway?     In my own play I'll have a few big plus days now and again and a few big minus days that could be called outliers, with the vast majority of my sessions ending up in a small range between the two (smaller plus days, smaller minus days).  Would those be warm days and cool days?    There's just no knowing when I sit down to start what the end result is going to be.
 
 
 

[scorpio2]

yeah,i've always argued that the casinos,harrahs,etc.can set the machines,as right after suppertime,the machines hit,but later,they die.but can they set a single machine,or a bank of machines,or the whole casino,as in the 91% etc. in the back of strictly slots magazines?

[faygo]

yeah,i've always argued that the casinos,harrahs,etc.can set the machines,as right after suppertime,the machines hit,but later,they die.but can they set a single machine,or a bank of machines,or the whole casino,as in the 91% etc. in the back of strictly slots magazines?
 
Yes, when they buy or lease the machines or have regulatory approval and oversight to change the game chip. By the way, VP is rolled into the numbers you see reported so the actual Slot Machine numbers are probably a bit South of them.

[pokeherguy]

Kinda got sidetracked here on the subject of the post and thats my fault for joking around about "hot & cold" and thats fine. The important thing is I just wanted to affirm my belief that vp is a far better choice than slots. At the same time considering how much time he spends playing he could still lose a pile of bucks. He was one of the folks I posted about in a different post in referenence to folks complaining about how dead the slots were.

[pokeherguy]

{Yes, when they buy or lease the machines or have regulatory approval and oversight to change the game chip. By the way, VP is rolled into the numbers you see reported so the actual Slot Machine numbers are probably a bit South of them.}
 
I did not know that, I thought vp was in a different class. I saw one of those reports a while back on two different casinos and one casino reprted around the 91% you mentioned while the other was more like 83%. I remember thinking 8% is a huge difference. From what I saw on the report the 91% casino had taken in over double the amount of the 83% casino.

[faygo]

{Yes, when they buy or lease the machines or have regulatory approval and oversight to change the game chip. By the way, VP is rolled into the numbers you see reported so the actual Slot Machine numbers are probably a bit South of them.}
 
I did not know that, I thought vp was in a different class. I saw one of those reports a while back on two different casinos and one casino reprted around the 91% you mentioned while the other was more like 83%. I remember thinking 8% is a huge difference. From what I saw on the report the 91% casino had taken in over double the amount of the 83% casino.
 
The 83% number is either from a Casino without VP or the paytables are ridiculously bad and/or the VP patrons don't have a clue.  I have never seen one that reported that low, unless your talking about Penny or Nickel denomination, which are in that range on slots.