Quick Quads

[shadowman]

It's the last hand of a contest session. You are dealt three 2s and a pair of aces. You need 2000 credits to make the top 5. What would you do?

[Eduardo]

Assuming it's TDB and I'm getting 1800 points for 3 quads, I take it and hope for 200 more on the 3 wheel spins.

[New2vp]

It's the last hand of a contest session. You are dealt three 2s and a pair of aces. You need 2000 credits to make the top 5. What would you do?Shadowman, I don't think this is a no-brainer.  You could toss one ace and have a 6.25% chance at getting a deuce for your certain 2000.But I haven't played this game enough to know what the distribution of the wheel spins get you.  Using the distribution that I have from only 32 observations of the wheel (no 1000's or 2000's yet), I have about a 5.25% chance of getting 800 or more with 3 spins of the wheel.  Adding the 3 x 400 = 1200 points that I would get by holding 222AA gets me to 2000 about as often as tossing one of the aces.I think this is a fairly close decision.

[New2vp]

Assuming it's TDB and I'm getting 1800 points for 3 quads, I take it and hope for 200 more on the 3 wheel spins.You would need triple bonus plus to get the 1800 points.  In my response below, I was assuming TDB, but 222AA gets you only 1200 points.

[Eduardo]

Right you are! I was looking at TB plus!




I think I would have taken the quad and my chances on the wheel in TDB as well but it sounds like it is a much closer call than what I thought previously. Good analysis. That draw for a 2 is tempting! 

[shadowman]

I didn't provide an answer for a reason. I also suspect it's a close call, not to mention the extra points for holding the QQ move a person up the leader board. In addition, if you make the top 5, you could also get beaten out eventually.
 
Lots of things to consider.

[Eduardo]

If you hold only an ace, you give yourself a shot at 3 royal flushes too.