Measuring Change

[damule]

  I can honestly say that over the last two years I have been to a casino 12 times and have not lost. I have played as little as 20 minutes and as long as 4 hours. I have won as little as $40 and as much as $1300.I am probably averaging about double my bankroll.

 
Let me see if I've got this correct: In 12 casino trips with a $200 bankroll playing 25-cent DDB (assuming single line play) not once have you lost the $200? The odds of that occurring are quite small I would imagine. You have been very lucky. Even with what seem to be superior money management abilities this would be rather difficult to achieve. 

[ansoda]

You are correct in saying that I have been very lucky. Indeed I have.
I have walked out on more "hot runs " in the recent year than I had in total in the previous 4 years. This fact alone may contribute  to my luck.
I have had trips where my bank roll was down to gas money, but I somehow pulled it out to get back to a winning margin. I have no doubt that sooner or later my "stash' will be lost, but I have won enough times now to know I am still playing with their money and will continue to do so for awhile. ( as long as I am still able to walk away)
  Also, ddb is not the only game I  play. Trip duces regular and STP, 50 play duces and  some times slots  to get rid of pocket change. Of course to some players my $200 is pocket change

[Frank Kneeland]

1.  What belief has changed?  In the beginning I was lead to believe that by playing VP in an educated way that I had a good chance of making a profit.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  I can think of two reasons.  First, my lack of success over  at least 10 years of VP playing.  Second, from reading articles in “Strictly Slots” I have come to accept that under normal conditions, that a educated player will go bankrupt about 95% of the time.Second point.1.  What belief has changed?  I thought that if I read advice from VP experts, that these people were trying to help me improve my game.2.  What was the primary reason for the change?  Now my opinion is that these VP experts are in bed with the casino industry.  Of course not all experts are guilty.  It is only good business that if a expert can make money with books, teaching, and software, then by working for the casinos they can make even more money.
Well I said this thread was not going to be about what people believe only why they believe it. Far be it for me to break my own rules. Let's examine your shift in thinking.1. Your adopted belief failed to be predictive over a long period of time.2. The pressure of financial losses and anger towards a "clear" culprit provided an emotional element.3. Information that was circulating about the dishonesty of people in general constituted new information.These are exactly the kind of conditions under which people are most likely to alter well established beliefs. Good post, thanks!~FKP.S. As far as me being in bed with casinos, I cannot tell a lie, I did sleep with a casino manger named Maureen at the old Main Street Station...and I'd do it again, she was hot.

[Frank Kneeland]

1.What belief has changed?

That most people have common sense and will follow obvious logic.



 

2.What was the primary factor in your change of opinion?Reading and writing in video poker forums.Wow! You managed to stay perfectly on topic and within the rules and still made an inflammatory statement. Let's all take a step back and marvel at just how cool that is. Kudos!Now let's look at the sequence.1. Your belief failed to be predictive over time2. Frustration and misunderstanding provided an emotional element.3. New insight into human nature constituted the new information.Now consider this. If someone had told you what to expect from on-line forums before you had joined them and had any personal experience, would you have believed them?There is a really important thing to learn from this is: It takes more than new information to alter belief. Much more!~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

As with Backsider, I started my VP play with the conviction that if I practiced, read and asked questions of the experienced players(on this site),I would be a winner more often than not.I would go to a casino and play, and play, and play. I belied that the random nature and odds of the game would eventually kick in and I would win fairly consistently.
    As years have passed , I have come to realize that the above does not work. This is what the casinos want you to believe in. You may win a bit, but if you continue to play you will give it back, and then some. This is their business and they are good at it!
   Well, now I am the wiser. With poor pay tables, very volatile new games, and diminishing comps, the casinos have made their point.
   I now play to a very limited bankroll ($200), and IF I hit a win, any win, I am out of there. Over the last two years I have played as little as 20 minutes when I hit a royal playing .25 ddb , got up and left the casino. Next trip, played trip deuces for about 2 hours staying fairly even when i found myself up $75. Got up and left.
It is hard to do, especially if you like to gamble. But if you want to come out  ahead this is what it takes.
I can honestly say that over the last two years I have been to a casino 12 times and have not lost. I have played as little as 20 minutes and as long as 4 hours. I have won as little as $40 and as much as $1300.I am probably averaging about double my bankroll.
Playing VP is not as much fun as it use to be, but neither am I.
So to sum it up I have given up my belief in "eventually", and now believe in "right here, right now"!! IT works for me.Interesting post and it follows the classic pattern of long term failure of current thinking, emotional incentive, new information.From what you say your conclusions were, I'm surprised you still play at all.You stated that, "You may win a bit, but if you continue to play you will give it back, and then some." I'm not going to dispute that for you.Follow your own advice and realize that enough short trips will add up to, "continuing to play", faster than you might expect.~FK

[ansoda]

Thanks Damule & FK for your input.
I had a failure in my current thinking recently when I found myself up about $700.
I was getting ready to leave when I heard a STP machine call my name.
Long story short- I blew through 400 in a heartbeat. I beat myself up badly for doing that and became more convinced than ever that my new game plan is correct, for me.
I still enjoy playing VP, its  the big risk/reward scene I miss.

[backsider]

Thanks Damule & FK for your input.
I had a failure in my current thinking recently when I found myself up about $700.
I was getting ready to leave when I heard a STP machine call my name.
Long story short- I blew through 400 in a heartbeat. I beat myself up badly for doing that and became more convinced than ever that my new game plan is correct, for me.
I still enjoy playing VP, its  the big risk/reward scene I miss.
 ansoda, your experience is the same as my multiple experiences and thank you for being honest about it, because Im sure we all know that this is how it goes way more often than not. That sure beats stories told by others who say they stayed on and lost only to claim they balanced it all out the next time with a royal or other big win because thats suppose to be how randomness works. We all know most of the time it does not.

[shadowman]

 That sure beats stories told by others who say they stayed on and lost only to claim they balanced it all out the next time with a royal or other big win because thats suppose to be how randomness works. We all know most of the time it does not.


 
So, as long as a story supports a preconceived opinion you believe it. If it does not support that belief it must be a lie. Have I got that right?
 
 

[Eduardo]

Which stories are those backsider? Maybe i missed them. Sorry for this to go a little off track but since you mentioned it, it would be nice to see an example. We all know there are good times and bad times. Ansoda just mentioned a crazy good hot streak himself, which I assume you believe. So which stories are the ones you are talking about?

[backsider]

[QUOTE=backsider] That sure beats stories told by others who say they stayed on and lost only to claim they balanced it all out the next time with a royal or other big win because thats suppose to be how randomness works. We all know most of the time it does not.


 
So, as long as a story supports a preconceived opinion you believe it. If it does not support that belief it must be a lie. Have I got that right?
 
 [/QUOTE]
 Look at it this way shadowman, Im not the one who has trouble telling forums that I lose without always having to pull a winning rabbit out of my hat at the same time. I stink and I know it and im not self concious about it.