Game/Machine Changing

[Frank Kneeland]

Tony,
While it may not make mathematical sense changing machines, many of us play for pleasure and don't have the $$ to play long hours in losing mode.

SInce I gamble for pleasure (and hopefully short-term profit) my playing enjoyment is a high priority. My attitude is a part of my pleasure. If I'm losing I'm not having a good time. So, if I don't hit on a machine after changing games, my timing, etc. I change machines-sometimes more than once,   My guess is that few of us enjoy playing through all of our "G accounts" while constantly losing. Remember, timing is everything!!!It is important to state that the type of fun Larry is talking about requires belief. If you are losing on a particular machine and then change...and then do better, you have to believe the "doing better" was caused by the changing of machines. You may have done even better having stayed where you were, but you'll never know, because you have created an informational bias. In order to know FOR SURE whether or not you should have moved or stayed where you were, you should do both and then compare the results. Since this is not possible, people move and then attribute anything that happens to the act of moving, never knowing what staying would have brought.This is exactly the kind of thinking I'm warning against. Do not create situations in which your mind can latch on to imaginary patterns.As far as it being more fun, science has discovered that the human mind gives people a shot of dopamine as a reward whenever they think they have discovered a pattern, real or imagined. This is one of the primary risk factors for gambling addiction and is almost indistinguishable in FMRI scan to cocaine use.So yes, I'm agreeing, seeing patterns and moving for no reason is clearly more fun. In fact that is the problem in a nutshell.Have fun, do what you like, but know the truth.

[Lucky Larry]

[QUOTE=Lucky Larry]Tony,
While it may not make mathematical sense changing machines, many of us play for pleasure and don't have the $$ to play long hours in losing mode.

SInce I gamble for pleasure (and hopefully short-term profit) my playing enjoyment is a high priority. My attitude is a part of my pleasure. If I'm losing I'm not having a good time. So, if I don't hit on a machine after changing games, my timing, etc. I change machines-sometimes more than once,   My guess is that few of us enjoy playing through all of our "G accounts" while constantly losing. Remember, timing is everything!!!It is important to state that the type of fun Larry is talking about requires belief. If you are losing on a particular machine and then change...and then do better, you have to believe the "doing better" was caused by the changing of machines. You may have done even better having stayed where you were, but you'll never know, because you have created an informational bias. In order to know FOR SURE whether or not you should have moved or stayed where you were, you should do both and then compare the results. Since this is not possible, people move and then attribute anything that happens to the act of moving, never knowing what staying would have brought.This is exactly the kind of thinking I'm warning against. Do not create situations in which your mind can latch on to imaginary patterns.As far as it being more fun, science has discovered that the human mind gives people a shot of dopamine as a reward whenever they think they have discovered a pattern, real or imagined. This is one of the primary risk factors for gambling addiction and is almost indistinguishable in FMRI scan to cocaine use.So yes, I'm agreeing, seeing patterns and moving for no reason is clearly more fun. In fact that is the problem in a nutshell.Have fun, do what you like, but know the truth.[/QUOTE]

Frank,
Not much in life is "FOR SURE" not even taxes now days.

I guess "informational bias" is not a major concern for me. Having been in a high-stress, multi-decision making role for many years, my belief is that most decisions need to be based on the best available information. One often doesn't have time or resources to gain total information. I disagree that changing machines creates a bias especially if you are a student of the game. Changing machines and hitting only reflects your timing was correct on the new machine. Changing because of a smoker would be a change for comfort but doesn't necessarily create a bias (although a healthier play environment).   But, I understand your concern if someone believes that the change to a "lucky machine" or "hot machine" could affect someone's beliefs. When in reality there is no such thing as hot or lucky. But, to that person isn't "their perception - their reality"?

Which leads to this question: Is a decision to play a game with a higher return an "informational bias"?   As students of the game most of us would play the machines with the highest return, play the highest EV strategy but we could still hit a Royal on a 6/5 JOB if our timing is right.   

[backsider]

If I change machines because Im losing and I do better, no doubt in my mind it was because I changed machines. Theres no bias in that anywhere because its what happened. If I stayed on the same machine who knows, but at least I have the data from the new machine to look at.

[Frank Kneeland]

Which leads to this question: Is a decision to play a game with a higher return an "informational bias"?   As students of the game most of us would play the machines with the highest return, play the highest EV strategy but we could still hit a Royal on a 6/5 JOB if our timing is right.   The classic example of informational bias (found in text book) is when someone prays and gets what they wanted, and then attributes praying to getting what they asked for. They are in fact making their evaluation with only 25% of the data they need, since to have complete information they would need to look at all the permutations. If we assign "P" for "praying" & "G" for "getting" and use a small "n" for "not" the possibilities would look thus:1. P + G        (Praying & Getting)2. P + nG      (Praying & not Getting)3. nP + G      (not Praying & Getting)4. nP + nG    (not Praying & not Getting)In the biased mind only the first option is considered, and thus we are left with a lot of people thinking their prayers are answered even though every scientific study ever done has found no effect of prayer beyond placebo effect and attribution error.In gambling information bias is the rule rather than the exception and clear thought primarily the domain of non-gamblers. It is currently thought that cognitive bias (various types) may account for something like 95% of the "fun" experienced by all players.Now don't go thinking I'm totally negative on the subject. I'm not. For problem or pathalogical gambling to become an issue, a lack of control must also be present. Most people know when to stop even if they have biases.It is disturbing to know that the incidence of cognitive bias in pathological gamblers is a number very close to 100%. There is no data on its prevalence in the general population.It should also be stated that saying someone has cognitive biases is not an insult or unusual. A completely unbiased person would be some kind of bizarre mutant and barely a member of the human race. We as humans cannot hope to achieve a state of unbiased perfection, we can only try to do better and hope that when we fail and fall, which we will, we fall forward.~FK

[Frank Kneeland]

I would like to make a generally positive statement about gambling. If you understand the things I do about all the reasons people gamble and you become absolutely sure as a result that you have no control issues, the entire endeavor becomes more relaxed, guilt free and more fun.In this way I would like to increase people's enjoyment, not ruin it.If at times I seem overtly negative it is only because of the "squeaky wheel gets the grease" phenomenon. I have little need to say things targeted to people with no issues that need no advice. Because of this phenomenon the advice I offer may at times seem biased. It is, but not becasue I myself am biased. I of course gamble professionally and have for more than two decades, and I do enjoy all the things that my career has brought me.If I were to talk about an average day in my life it would likely be overtly positive, it would also be dull as dirt.Happy New Year...~FK

[Lucky Larry]

Now you messing with "my miracles". I consider it a miracle when I'm dealt a RF.

I enjoy reading and analyzing your responses.

Happy New Year Frank.