What are the chances?

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billy joe][
This is why I like to play games like TDB. I cannot imagine recovering from a stretch like that on JOB (short of an RF), but at least on TDB, you have some opportunities for premium quads that will help you recover. I know, TDB is a volatile game, but if JOB will not give you a 2 pair even, why bother?  
Actually, one 4-of-a-kind would put you ahead (assuming that at least 17 of those 41 hands were a high pair).

Whether you catch up today or not is largely irrelevant. You play many tens of thousands of hands a year, BJ. How well you recover on January 8 or any other date is just a small data point on your annual score.

But even if you're trying to avoid getting buried today, JoB offers much more likelihood for this than TDB.

You may well prefer TDB to JoB for your own reasons, but avoiding a big loss can't possibly be one of them. TDB is FULL of big loss sessions.

Bob
[/QUOTE]
You are correct, Bob. You have to be disciplined in some approach of money management to help avoid huge loss cycles. I am the first to admit that I have been, for the most part, fortunate playing TDB in VP. That is not to say that I have not had losing sessions, or even losing trips - because I have. That is why I diversify my play with table games and slots when the VP is not performing well.
 
As I have said before, my goal on a gaming trip is to enjoy myself. Having a bankroll that will allow me to play for the entire trip is important to me. I never put myself in a position to get wiped out on the 1st or 2nd day of a trip.

[dredwing]

These type of runs are now the rule for me rather then the exception in Vegas.  I rarely go a day without playing poker of some sort and it seems a long string of nothing with an occasional two pair, rinse, repeat.  And if your REALLY lucky you'll get a straight dealt to you.  For me that's not gambling and sure as hell isn't entertainment.  And I know I ain't the only one because the vast majority of poker banks are empty in Vegas, even on big weekend holidays.Guess I have to pretend that the last 20 years never happened and this is all just normal or bad luck............

[gofaster87]

Its rare that I go through any session without quads much less 2 pair or better consistently. Every once in a while Ill go an hour or two without hitting any. Last night I hit 12 quads(aces twice 2,3,4s several times) and still came out on the short end of the stick. This was on single play and within a 2 hour span playing a mix of bonus poker and DDB full pay. Without a royal or super high paying quads, a session can be negative quickly. I do agree the perception is you get less play for the money nowadays. Sometimes it seems the math is hogwash but Id like to think its fair.

[gofaster87]

Id like to add, if I look over my play everything seems to average out over the year and my yearly royal count is on par with what I should get(a little over royaled.) Hitting 12 quads within 2400 hands will catch up to me on a future session.

[dredwing]

Good point on seeing where you stand once year end hits.  I'm probably gonna have to start gambling in different locations.  My local casinos don't seem to care if they loose poker customers.  Those penny slots bring them more revenue from the older folks.  

[olds442jetaway]

Yes, at least here in Ct. the penny slots really seem to be taking over. VP machines are not even regularly maintained  unless someone complains. I also noticed that the mindless penny machines for the most part have a starting point of 30 to 50 cents and they have removed the select lines option from most of them. Does anyone have a handle on the average house edge on these machines? My guess would be 88-92% return, but that is just a guess. Unfortunately, another 10 hour session today with only 1 quad on JOB.

[gofaster87]

Thats just odd. In all my years of playing VP I never have and couldn't imagine going 10 hours with only one quad. I would quit poker if it happened.

[shadowman]

Thats just odd. In all my years of playing VP I never have and couldn't imagine going 10 hours with only one quad. I would quit poker if it happened.


 
Keep in mind that some people don't play very fast. 10 hours for one person may be 2 hours for another. That said, I once went 4 days playing 2-3 hours a day before finally hitting a quad at one particular casino (Suncoast). And I don't play slow.

[gofaster87]

I do play fast, 1000-1200 hands per hour on avg. Ive just have never went that long without a quad whether it be a few hours or a few days. Just lucky all these years I guess. I can say the Suncoast is one of my least favorite Casinos, besides being on the other side of town from Green Valley it just has a weird vibe. The old people give me the stink eye there.

[olds442jetaway]

My play averages 600 hands/hour so 1 quad in 6,000 hands.  The only thing that saved me from a huge loss was the full houses and flushes came along a little more frequently than normal. Also these were 25 cent machines  which are available at Mohegan Sun as long as you don't mind not earning players points for the 9/6 and other near full pay games. I haven't done the calculation, but I don't think the odds of this happening are astronomical considering a quad every 400 hands or so is the average. It is rare to be sure, but not like the odds of hitting the lottery. Of course the 1 quad had to be Aces just to rub it in a little more on a JOB game......Well over 100k hands now without a Royal, so maybe on the next trip in a couple of days.