Just a thought

[shadowman]

How many people go to a casino and lose come running right back? Not many. How many that try it a few times and lose go running back? Again, not many. So, who is it that plays in casinos? It is folks that have had some success at one time or another.

I've seen this over and over as I've played the last 20+ years. There are always people who are complaining the machines do not pay like they used to. Who are these people? Most likely they had some good luck when they started playing even though the games return much less than 100%. When that luck runs out they blame the casino.

And what have I done during this entire time? I kept right on winning. Some years were better than others. Nothing changed with the machines. It was simply a case where people who had been lucky hit a dry period.

Now, since a very small number of people limit themselves to only playing when they have an advantage, the number of people gambling at any point in time that fit the description above is quite high. Always has been.

Finally, this very same discussion has been carried on right here several times before and I've posted almost the same comment before. I realize it won't change the minds of most people but at least I try.

[ravenbynight111]

 shadow the pct you talk about, what is basis on number of hands played or amount you play or the game you play.Like in baseball you go to the plate 1000 times and you get 400 hits you are batting 400 plain and simple.Video poke does not have that same foundation with the numbers. If you play a thousand hands of vp what your pct be if your playing ddb 9/7 please explain to me how it works. I do not think anyone can.It is chance and true numbers can not be applied as in baseball.But i am open to a real reason thanks.

[sam434343]

raven, careful, I agree with you, but they are going to explain that there numbers/percentages are over long term play or that in general this is what going to be your payback over long term.They base it all on 52 deck of cards. I spoke to physics professor at major University, he laught when I told him about the math experts on video poker site he said all they know is what they were taught in school/college/university. Then he gave me example tell them this, metric system is in almost all countries and is there major system of math for weight,length ect.ect. The three countries it is not major system is Liberia,Burma=Myanmar and good old U.S.A. In the USA 1 inch is 1 inch but if you use different system metric 1 inch equals 2.54 CM but the length is still the same but the numbers don't match. He said it is easier to use metric system to do a lot of math because dealing in 1000th,100,10, doing the math I didn't have tape recorder but he said lot more than I can write. He did go on to explain that the USA use it(metric) in there weight system, and you go to a store you can buy metric bolts and nuts. Again he said if they were taught metric that's what they know and the numbers would be different than 1 inch equals 1 inch.

[spxChrome]

[QUOTE=ravenbynight111] I also play tdb, my point ot the whole post is that i think the casino industry is so corrupt, and it like you said you cant win all the time. The avg player is looking for fair shake and in my view those days are gone
That is why you need to exploit the comps that you receive. [/QUOTE]

What is this word Comp you speak of? Is that were they give you $5 in free play after putting $10,000 coin in    

I only say this because I used to get $200 a week from this place and the other day they sent me a $5 free play.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe] [QUOTE=ravenbynight111] I also play tdb, my point ot the whole post is that i think the casino industry is so corrupt, and it like you said you cant win all the time. The avg player is looking for fair shake and in my view those days are gone
That is why you need to exploit the comps that you receive. [/QUOTE]

What is this word Comp you speak of? Is that were they give you $5 in free play after putting $10,000 coin in    

I only say this because I used to get $200 a week from this place and the other day they sent me a $5 free play.
[/QUOTE]
Maybe I shouldn't, but I lump all comps together. That would include not only cashback or FreePlay, but also rooms, food, spa, golf, pool cabana, show tickets, etc. Also, at least in my case, airfare reimbursement. In addition, the bigger casino chains (Caesars and MGM) have gift purchase events numerous times a year, and a big holiday gift event in Vegas at the end of the year. At the higher tier levels, there are yearly trips, dinners and cruises.

The advantage to me, as a player from a non-casino state (Florida), is that your tier status from the larger casino groups goes with you to any of their properties.

One of these days, if I am really bored, I will sit back and itemize all the 'stuff' that I had received from a year of gaming. It may be an interesting exercise.   

[shadowman]

 shadow the pct you talk about, what is basis on number of hands played or amount you play or the game you play.Like in baseball you go to the plate 1000 times and you get 400 hits you are batting 400 plain and simple.Video poke does not have that same foundation with the numbers. If you play a thousand hands of vp what your pct be if your playing ddb 9/7 please explain to me how it works. I do not think anyone can.It is chance and true numbers can not be applied as in baseball.But i am open to a real reason thanks.

First of all consider how a VP game's return is computed. You look at all the possible dealt hands and all the possible draws. You then compute the total number of credits won for all those hands when you use the best strategy to choose the hold cards. You then divide the total credits won by the total number of possible hands. The result is the average return for using the best possible strategy.

The result of this average should be what will be seen over many, many hands if a random distribution of cards is dealt. Pretty much no one will see the exact average, but we should get closer and closer the more we play.

It's not really like baseball but some of the same ideas come into play. A hitter will see lots of different pitchers of different abilities which should average out over time. Their batting average becomes closer to their actual skill level the more games that are played.

Just like a good hitter could go 0-4 against a good pitcher, we can have sessions where we lose consistently. And, just like a hitter can go 4-4, we can have great sessions with lots of winners.

Over time a baseball player's average combines all of these daily results and a pattern emerges of their skill. The same holds for a VP player. Over time our good and bad sessions average out and what's left is the skill. In VP skill is a combination of the return of the games we play and the strategy we use.

For example, a skillful 9/6 JOB player will tend towards the average return of the game (99.54%) if they employ optimal play strategy. The more one plays the more likely they are to be close to the return of the games they play at the skill level they use.

[onemoretry]

raven, careful, I agree with you, but they are going to explain that there numbers/percentages are over long term play or that in general this is what going to be your payback over long term.They base it all on 52 deck of cards. I spoke to physics professor at major University, he laught when I told him about the math experts on video poker site he said all they know is what they were taught in school/college/university. Then he gave me example tell them this, metric system is in almost all countries and is there major system of math for weight,length ect.ect. The three countries it is not major system is Liberia,Burma=Myanmar and good old U.S.A. In the USA 1 inch is 1 inch but if you use different system metric 1 inch equals 2.54 CM but the length is still the same but the numbers don't match. He said it is easier to use metric system to do a lot of math because dealing in 1000th,100,10, doing the math I didn't have tape recorder but he said lot more than I can write. He did go on to explain that the USA use it(metric) in there weight system, and you go to a store you can buy metric bolts and nuts. Again he said if they were taught metric that's what they know and the numbers would be different than 1 inch equals 1 inch.

Am I the only one who has no idea what this all means?

[Tedlark]

Um it makes perfect sense to me.

[ko king]

How many people go to a casino and lose come running right back? Not many. How many that try it a few times and lose go running back? Again, not many. So, who is it that plays in casinos? It is folks that have had some success at one time or another.

I've seen this over and over as I've played the last 20+ years. There are always people who are complaining the machines do not pay like they used to. Who are these people? Most likely they had some good luck when they started playing even though the games return much less than 100%. When that luck runs out they blame the casino.

And what have I done during this entire time? I kept right on winning. Some years were better than others. Nothing changed with the machines. It was simply a case where people who had been lucky hit a dry period.

Now, since a very small number of people limit themselves to only playing when they have an advantage, the number of people gambling at any point in time that fit the description above is quite high. Always has been.

Finally, this very same discussion has been carried on right here several times before and I've posted almost the same comment before. I realize it won't change the minds of most people but at least I try.

All I can say is you're lucky to have positive return games availible, we don't around here, the best to be found is 98.98%. I've played for almost 20 years and until a few years back I would have agreed with pretty much everything you preach. You say you have finished ahead every year, some years better than others and I don't doubt you one bit. You have the benefit of playing 100% plus expectation games and that's what you've come to expect, maybe a little less and maybe a little more. Now myself I don't expect to come out ahead so it's vital that I find the best payback percentage and employ perfect play to the best of my abilities to minimize losses or not play at all. The strategy worked great for years and I even had a few years that I finished ahead. Like I said I don't expect to win I just want to see something close to the posted return, no different than yourself. I enjoy playing and play quite a lot of vp. I can't help but wonder how much it would take before even yourself started to question the game. Since you only play 100% return games how many years of 96.36% return could you stand, 1 year, 2 years or maybe 3 before you had a few questions?

[shadowman]

All I can say is you're lucky to have positive return games availible, we don't around here, the best to be found is 98.98%. I've played for almost 20 years and until a few years back I would have agreed with pretty much everything you preach. You say you have finished ahead every year, some years better than others and I don't doubt you one bit. You have the benefit of playing 100% plus expectation games and that's what you've come to expect, maybe a little less and maybe a little more. Now myself I don't expect to come out ahead so it's vital that I find the best payback percentage and employ perfect play to the best of my abilities to minimize losses or not play at all. The strategy worked great for years and I even had a few years that I finished ahead. Like I said I don't expect to win I just want to see something close to the posted return, no different than yourself. I enjoy playing and play quite a lot of vp. I can't help but wonder how much it would take before even yourself started to question the game. Since you only play 100% return games how many years of 96.36% return could you stand, 1 year, 2 years or maybe 3 before you had a few questions?

I've seen a lot of year to year variance. It sounds like you have seen the same as you stated you have had winning years playing a sub 99% game. That means you were at least 1-2 percentage points above the mean. Naturally, you should expect some years to be the same amount below the mean. In this case that would be a sub 98% return.

In my case I have seen around a 1.5% variance. This is probably tied to the amount I play. If you less your variance could be higher (and vice versa).

This is essentially what I was talking about. When people see the plus side of variance they start to think that is what should be expected. Then, when the worm turns they start thinking that it is some kind of conspiracy by casinos to cheat them. The streakiness of VP, especially high variance games like DDB, TDB, etc., can lead to huge swings in yearly results.