Burned machine

[asteroid]

If it assumed that an NRF occurs 1/40000 hands or so and that the law of large numbers is true, then the number of times an NRF occurs must converge to this average eventually.This means then, that if a machine is over-royaled, eventually the frequecny of NRF hits must go below this average. If it doesn't, then the law of large number is violated and it becomes a mystery as to how casinos keep the lights on since they rely on convergence to the house edge to make their money.The cards are dealt randomly and the machine doesn't have a "memory" of recent jackpots or cold streaks. If it did pay out 2 royals recently, the machine has no way to "tighten up" and go cold. If it did have this ability, it would no longer be random - which would be illegal in most jurisdictions.

I was playing once next to a guy who hit 2 nice handpays minutes apart. As he was leaving he said "these things pay out at 98% (true in the long term with perfect play), and it will have to go cold for a few days to balance out the numbers (false)".

[billryan]

That probably meant something Billryan, but the supposed official reason is so another player can't claim the same win.That's what a slot director on one of the forums said.

That actually makes sense.

[billryan]

There is no LAW of Large Numbers, if you consider Law to be Scientifically proven.
Probability itself is only a theory, and the LOLN is simply an axiom.
Improbability Theorem says that the most unlikely of occurrences possible, two Royal Flush's in a row, will occur.
A state lottery can, and has, selected the exact same numbers two days in a row.
My father was born in Ireland, moved to America, joined the army and was stationed in Japan. I met a new friend at school and bought him home to play ball. My father hardly ever came out to play but did this day. When he heard my new friends name, he mentioned he had a childhood friend with that name. It was my friends father.
What are the odds that two boys from a small town in Ireland would end up living in the same neighborhood in Japan thirty five years later, and have sons in the same class. Two RF in a day suddenly seems not so impossible.

[asteroid]

Yes agreed. Casinos keep their lights on and more using this axiom. This axiom simply doesn't just disappear when applied to the probability of a particular hand and yet remain intact where convergence to the house edge is concerned - it applies to both or neither. And we know it works for the casinos. Don't take my word for it - if you have vp software, run a simulation with perfect strategy and you will see a particular hand frequency (such as an NRF) converge to its average frequency (over millions of hands). the LOLN is simply an axiom.