Interesting Royal

[billryan]

As a wise man once said, "Wherever you go, there you are."

[olds442jetaway]

I like to both have fun playing vp and follow the math rules 99% of the time. That said, I wish the math would come around for me in a shorter time frame than infinity. I don't think I will live quite that long. At least I was able to find that one dollar machine spin poker at Mohegan Sun that pays 800 for the Royal for bet 1. I play that machine strictly on Bonus Deuces Wild with a 98.8 paytable because the job table is just 9/5. If I want to play job, I just find a quarter game and there are plenty of them there at 99.54.
     I'm curious Bob, in your travels how often do you run across machines that pay 800 for bet 1 for the Royal and have a paytable of at least 98.8%? If you do find them are they always on spin poker only?

[olds442jetaway]

Oh I forgot....as long as we have Bob's attention here for a moment, in your experience do you find the comps any higher playing a dollar game as opposed to quarters yet playing the same amount dollar wise per hand on vp. At least at Mohegan Sun, the comps seem to be a bit better playing the dollar game even though the same money is bet as if I were playing quarters. The downside is all of their vp games that are over 98 percent pay status tier points only and you can't spend those. Foxwoods pays both tier points and paying points on all of their vp games. I was able to find both 9/6 job games and dollar airport deuces games there but historically Mohegan Sun has been my home base. Before everyone jumps on the bandwagon at Mohegan Sun to attain Soar tier status playing at Mohegan Sun, it most likely will cost you 2 million dollars cycled through the machines to earn the required 4000 tier points per cycle. The cost at least for me runs 50k or so per cycle. Just too much to maintain even with all of the comps. The lack of Royals coming in on time has resulted in that high of a number. It should only cost 20k or so still a big number.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]Now THAT'S one heck of a strategy.  It tells you NOTHING about how to play a hand.  However
you play a hand, you just say "That's the experience I was going for!"
and that makes it a perfect strategy for your desires. It's also an excuse that is easier to say than, "I'm so busy posting I don't have time to learn how to play."[/quote]I am not on this forum to tell players how to play video poker or sell them on using any strategy.   I talk about my own personal motivations for playing VP, how I attempt to make those motivations a reality and what happens when I play.  Recreational VP players outnumber for profit players at least 100,000 to
one.  Who is harmed if someone knowingly pays 4 extra cents to see more royals or plays as cheaply as possible so
they can enjoy the game on a limited budget?I am not marketing strategies that promise math can predict what cards are going to appear in the short or long term.  I do not consider players who don't play VP my way to be unintelligent or attempt to have their comments banned.   If Mr. Dancer doesn't want to read comments he doesn't agree with, he should create his own forum on BobDancer.com where he can preach to the choir and no one will ever question anything he says.   I think all members of this website should have equal access to the forum.  I don't believe anyone should question another members intelligence or make negative comments after every one of their posts.  We have two forums for a reason.  One is for players who want the best financial result and one for players who enjoy the game purely as recreation.  Same game, different motivations, different strategies.

[New2vp]

Posting a picture of a royal flush when holding AK suited in your Deuces Wild game is fine.  Wanting to have more royals is fine.  Saying that this somehow puts you (or anyone) up by $1000 and comparing this to a 4-cent error appears to be some monetary justification rather than the non-monetary satisfaction of hitting the perfect hand.  I'd like to explore that, assuming that your 4-cent estimate is correct.You have never said how much you prefer losing in order to get a single royal, though you have often suggested that you don't like losing more than a certain amount per trip.  Saying that you can't hit a royal if you don't hold AT suited in a deuces wild game is not quite accurate.  I ran really well in 2015, playing mostly DSTP 5-play quarter Bonus Deuces and was lucky enough to hit a royal on a redraw.   I would redraw to most hands that were AX suited.  I am not saying that the fact that I hit a royal on a redraw means that I made the right play. I'm just illustrating that a single outcome really means nothing outside of the fact that oddities occur from time to time.  I can assure you that I had many more redraws that did not result in a royal (as in all of them) just as you have had many more draws to AX suited that did not get a royal.  Oh, by the way, you can't hit 4 deuces when you hold AX suited.  I also hit 4 deuces on a redraw.  And I would presume that you really like hitting quad deuces.  The odds are that you will hit one royal in 16,215 such attempts.  What is 4 cents multiplied by those 16,215 attempts?  $648.60.  Now comparing that to the $1000 royal might seem to put you ahead, right?  Well, not so fast.  The 4-cent per hand loss is after figuring in that you would win the expected number of royals, in this case one royal for $1000.  I know your post suggests that you are starting with a $1000 advantage, but I'm relatively certain you had many previous such holds that did not yield 10 c-notes.  And, as you are so fond of saying, you are not guaranteed anything in the future even if it was your first hit.  There is a good chance of not hitting any royals in a future cycle, even though you might also get multiple royals in a cycle.Let's look at what you can expect if you choose to draw to AX suited instead of 5-card redraws (in whole percents):37% of the time, you will hit that one royal over a cycle of 16,215 draws.  If you hit that royal, you can expect to lose $1648.60 on the hands that you did not get a royal for a net loss of $648.60.Coincidentally, there is an equal probability of hitting no royals, so:  37% of the time, you will hit zero royals over a cycle of 16,215
draws.  If you do not hit any royals, you can expect to lose $1648.60 on the
first 16,214 hands that you did not get a royal and lose a dime on the other one for a net loss of $1648.70.Finishing this out, 18% of the time you will hit 2 royals, 6% of the time you can hit 3, and 2% of the time, you will hit 4 or more.So, if you are in the top 26%, you will win by doing this after 16,215 tries.  If you hit one royal, you will be able to get a picture to post on your favorite blog, but you will lose about an expected $650, netting out the $1000 win.  You have just as much chance of not hitting a royal even after 16,215 attempts and losing about $1650 on average.Making the choice to play AX suited instead of redrawing 5 cards does suggest that one is happy spending $1648.60 for the opportunity to gaze at that perfect hand and "win" $1000.  If you had never had one, I could better understand this, but to each his own.  By the way that is an EV of 60.65%.  Of course no legitimate video poker games, or other slots in most casinos, for that matter have such a low return.  I'm not suggesting that anyone should forego having fun gambling, I'm just pointing out that there are probably a lot better ways to have fun gambling in a casino than making a bet of $1650 that will return an expected 61 cents on the dollar.Of course, if you do not like to pay any attention to math,  I understand that.  It is not for everyone, maybe not for most.  It's hard to concentrate enough to understand what is written, let alone working it out for yourself.  If you do not, you may not realize that this large loss is due to your choices since you are just losing a little at a time with no way of comparing what might have been.  One thought:  You may very well lose so much that you begin to try another strategy of the day before losing that much ... or getting that trophy picture of yet another royal.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=new2vp]You may very well lose so much that you begin to try another strategy of
the day before losing that much ... or getting that trophy picture of
yet another royal.[/quote]Funny you should mention that.  The royal I posted here happened under a fairly interesting situation.  While I never criticize players for playing any way they wish, I do try to play according to my VPW software most of the time.   Playing single coin is not something I do much of these days as I earn more comps playing max coins and I play better games than I used to.  Today I play mostly bonus poker at max coins.  My money lasts longer and it's usually the best quarter game at most of the casinos where we play.   My wife always plays max coin quarter deuces wild.   She loves to hold two card ace to a royal hands even though she knows it costs her a little money long term.  She has hit three full royals holding these cards so far and more wild royals than we bother to count.  While we were in Tahoe for our anniversary, we played in Reno a few days first.  I played NSU deuces for two days and lost way more than I wanted to.  I didn't expect to lose that much as the game is nearly 100% and I was playing by the computer.   Incredibly I never hit a quad deuce or a royal once.  So much for 100% games.Anyway, early in the morning when we were at Harrahs in Tahoe and I was playing by myself.  I was very disgusted and my heart just wasn't in it.  I was dealt a suited ace king and thought "What would my wife do?"  I held the two "wrong" cards and the royal flush popped up as big as day.  My wife never stops kidding me about that. The idea that you can't win unless you play computer perfect is just as ridiculous as thinking you are guaranteed to win if you do.   I have won big playing lousy games and lost bigger playing near 100% games.   Once you get to a certain level there is no way to equate results with super human skill either.   My dog could be dealt a royal flush.   What I am certain of is playing the best games perfectly lets you play more hands giving you more chances at a jackpot.  What happens after that is mostly up to luck.  The real value of Dancer's strategy is realizing and maximizing the value of comps and incentives.   For that information alone, I am grateful.