Beginning of the End?

[Kshman]

I agree. At $12.50/hand ($1.25/10 play) you would have to play for more than 10 hours to cycle through 100K at 700 hands/hour. That is not worth it because you will start making mistakes.But if you increase your bet to higher stakes at $1.25 over more hands (20x or 50X), the variance increases while your bankroll requirement decreases (in theory).My calculations:3 play: 40% of bankroll needed for single line5 play: 28% of bankroll needed for single line10 play: 20% of bankroll needed for single lineSo if you play 20 hands at $1.25 each ($25 per hand) you can calculate:$25/hand would be a $5 single line game ($20,000 Royal). 3-4 times the Royal would be a bankroll of $60,000-$80,000. So my calculations for spreading this out over 20 hands is about 15%-16% of the bankroll requirement (to be safe): $10,000-$13,000. But you have to have the psychological toughness to lose $3000-$4000 in a session and be cool with it. The math always works out, you have to survive the swings. This all gets much more complicated with STP etc.Of course, this can all go wrong if you have bad luck. But you play $25/hand for an hour at 700 hands as an out of town player and you have a host immediately. Play for 6 hours in one day and you are RFB. So my plays are at nice properties with good games. Comp City!

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]With people like Florida Phil revealing all the secrets of VP, what do you expect the casinos to do?[/quote]When all VP games are 97% will you be out of the strategy business?     Players will still play.  Casinos will make money as they do now and nothing will change.   Bob's books and software will still sell because players want to believe they can beat the casinos.  Like now, some players will win and some will lose.  My bet is Mr. Dancer will continue to win no matter what happens.VP math is like George Carlin used to say about religion.  "It's like lifts in your shoes".  Use them if you need to.  

[dw44]

I think where people sometimes get into trouble is when they only play with an edge on multi-point days. Many casinos are going to put you on the no mail/no slot club card fast track when you are running 50K-100K through the machines a day doing that. For quarter/dollar players it probably does not matter much.I'm sure you know all this. Thanks for the response.




Your comment here seems correct, but how do you play with an edge without lowering the quality of the mailers you earned as a high limit player?

[billryan]

That is the difference between successful players and wanna be players.

[Kshman]

In my experience, the players who get backed off are local players who only play games where they have the edge on days where the multipliers are highest. If you only play at casino #1 on Mondays, casino #3 on Wednesdays....and you continue this week after week (or month after month), you are going to get cut off mailers eventually if you are playing $25/hand. Or some might play a machine for 10 hours straight that theoretically pays at a rate of $40/hour because of a mistake by the marketing team/slot team etc. Taking advantage of the casinos when they make a mistake really pisses them off (as do VP teams who never set foot into a casino until machines reach their strike point).Some casinos use the slot club cards to identify players who only play high stakes games at holds of less than .5% and then increase the amount of coin-in to earn tier credits/rewards points (sometimes by 5-6X!). Playing NSUD at $25/hand for three days straight at 6 hours/day at these casinos without playing anything else is a great way to let them know you are probably playing with an edge at least some of the time.In his GWAE column, Bob promised to write more on the subject of why he is allowed to continue to play with an edge at high stakes in LV. I am very interested in reading that article.For me, it is a different situation. I fly in for 3 nights at one casino and play consistently every day that I am there at the same coin-in. I tip well, show everyone at the casino respect, and never short play my hosts. When the high limit people have to deal with grumpy senior citizens, rude power drinkers, and adult baby degenerates most of the time they actually like having me in there. I also know that if I hit a Royal for $20,000 that I need to cool it the rest of the trip and play some slots at a hold of 5% or less (if I can help it). I never play at the same casino two trips in a row.But keep in mind that I am a recreational player who knows the game. As I mentioned before, I have only had one losing year out of 3 years. Playing without the edge in the long run = net loser. I play in the short run and have had success.As a quarter player, I played 6-8 hours a day for 2 weeks straight in casinos and decided that it was not for me to play beyond a recreational level. But I have a FT job with plenty of time off...so I can play at this level for fun in the short term.I hope this information helps.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Kshman]But keep in mind that I am a recreational player who knows the game. As I
mentioned before, I have only had one losing year out of 3 years.
Playing without the edge in the long run = net loser. I play in the
short run and have had success.[/quote]Sounds like you have it together.  Super attitude...  It's so refreshing to see a player like this on the forum.   He knows what he wants and why he plays.  He knows his limitations.  He does what it takes to make it happen.  He states why he does what he does and accepts the result.   Great post....

[Carcounter]

Kshman, Agree with Phil, you have your priorities and expectations from VP aligned perfectly. I play once a week, usually for 3-4 hours on games with 99.69% and 99.54% theos. With cashback and comp dollars, a break even play, which is fine with a recreational player like me. Enjoy nice steak dinners, access to the Amphora lounge and get free rooms for friends and family, I live an hour from AC, so I don't need them. I play single line at the .50 level for SDB and dollar level for 9/6 JOB. Results are in line with math expectations. If I am over royaled for the year, I win a little, under royaled, I lose a little. But VP is relaxing and enjoyable for me. Especially on Friday afternoons in the summer at the Borgata. Great people watching.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Carcounter]If I am over royaled for the year, I win a little, under royaled, I lose a little. But VP is relaxing and enjoyable for me.[/quote]Exactly.    That's what playing VP is about...  

[Kshman]

Thanks for the kind words. Keep in mind that I do play according to strategy/math. I have fun by winning more than losing and if I did not play (close to) perfect strategy and (mostly) machines at 100% or above...my winning years would be losing years without question.I just have no interest in playing professionally. The minimum bankroll if you do not want to live like a troll is probably $100,000 these days (starting with $25/hand). VP is not a game where you can go from rags to riches in a year (maybe in the early 1990s). But there is no way I'm playing $1.25-$5.00/hand 40 hours+/week. You can make more money begging in a major city. I live in a major city and talk to the homeless regularly. Some can make 15-20K/year tax free. Even if they are lying (and doubled their supposed total net earnings) they would still make more money than dollar pros. It is a great, fun income if you are retired, but I still have 2-3 decades of work ahead of me. I need to earn and did not earn a PhD (13 years of college that I paid for while going to school) to play VP at low stakes. However, if I had a $500,000 bankroll...it might be worth it to me for a couple of years (or even months).I created this forum discussion to ask: does anyone know why those multi-play machines were removed (beyond the obvious: because they were and casinos change games)? I usually have specific information why things happen at certain casinos and I thought I would ask if anyone wanted to share. I understand if people do not want to share plays (I don't), but MIA machines are usually easily explained if you are a local player and have a decent relationship with employees/other players.Anyway, that is probably it for me for posting to this site. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the responses!

[Carcounter]

Kshman, I am totally in agreement with you. I actually have the bankroll to go out to Las Vegas and play professionally, but I have zero interest in that lifestyle. I make far more money with far less stress with my engineering consulting business. VP is a Friday afternoon hobby for me. One disagreement with Phil though, I would never play 97% games if they were all that was available.