Wild! Wild! Wild! Poker Strategy and Analysis for DDB Players

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
TripleTriple
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Re: Wild! Wild! Wild! Poker Strategy and Analysis for DDB Players

Post by TripleTriple »

alpax wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 9:32 pm
dinghy wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 6:36 am

I tried to collect data, but the game lags severely on my system. My numbers are from TDB and DDB, dealing and redealing without holding cards.

I tallied a little over 100 features and got 67/25/7% frequencies for 1/2/3 wilds. Maybe I just ran bad in my small sample.

I would note though that the Magic Deal probabilities are unbalanced to an even greater extreme. Wizard indicates 8.4/1.0/0.1 within a 9.5 feature frequency -- translating to around 90/9/1% of feature occurrences.
Although 100 features is a lot to track on paper, I believe it is a very small sample size to reflect the true sense of the distributions. Maybe 10,000+ events is a more reasonable amount. Either way a huge bankroll is needed if it makes it to the casinos.
Over the past few months I've tracked results as I've played here on the site- a total of over 10,000 hands. All my play was 10 play TDB (9/7).

Number of hands: 10,221

0 Wild!s = 5000 (48.9%)
1 Wild! = 3365 (32.9%)
2 Wild!s = 1420 (13.9%)
3 Wild!s = 436 (4.3%)

Percentage of Wild! enabled hands = 50.1%, in agreement with "Wild! feature is initiated an average of 1 in 1.96 games". The breakdown of number of Wild!s for the game variant is also quite close to those reported on WIzard of Odds- 1 Wild! = 32.9 vs 32.9%, 2 Wild!s = 13.9 vs. 14.1%, 3 Wild!s = 4.3 vs. 4.0%. Another interesting thing is that the number of 2 Wild!s generally increases slightly (with a corresponding decrease in a single Wild!) for better pay tables. The number of 3 Wild!s remains static.

One thing I did notice during all this play was that there were still extremely long stretches of hands without either a royal, 5 of a kind or kicker hands. Amazing how often you can be dealt one or two Wild! and still hit very little-even on 10 hands. I was never dealt all three Wild!. No, I did not play perfect strategy- or even close- but the holds I chose would likely lead to more royals, etc. and not less (trying for daily high score). So Alpax's caution of a huge bankroll needed IRL is apt.

The "Find in Casinos" link is not populated by hovering over the game link here, but if you manually enter from another game, it reveals that 2 Nevada casinos have it. There is no mention of variants or pay tables.

If you see this game or have played it, share your experience. And good luck!

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

I should revisit this game and get a better feel for it. Thanks for your info TT.

Good luck to you.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

Thanks for the effort! That was admirably autistic :up: .
TripleTriple wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:33 am
I was never dealt all three Wild!.
If I entered correctly into the calculator, it's 1-in-2631 to catch 3-of-3 on the deal, with 3 available.

And because the 3 available only occurs 1-in-25, the overall probability is 1-in-66k. So it's depressingly rare imo. For your 10k hands played, you weren't even close to a full cycle for that event.
2 Nevada casinos have it.
Red Rock & Sunset Station in Vegas (and Henderson).

I haven't seen it. The Station casinos are not typically friendly to either multi-line or low-denom preferences. The base pay %s are probably in the 98s for quarters, and worse for nickels/dimes.

The EV boost varies from one selection to another. 9/6 JoB only goes up from 99.54 to 99.63. In that case, I would probably just play 5 coins per, without the feature. 9/7 TDB is a tougher decision with a bump from 99.58 to 99.78.

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

TripleTriple wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 11:33 am
alpax wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 9:32 pm
dinghy wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 6:36 am

I tried to collect data, but the game lags severely on my system. My numbers are from TDB and DDB, dealing and redealing without holding cards.

I tallied a little over 100 features and got 67/25/7% frequencies for 1/2/3 wilds. Maybe I just ran bad in my small sample.

I would note though that the Magic Deal probabilities are unbalanced to an even greater extreme. Wizard indicates 8.4/1.0/0.1 within a 9.5 feature frequency -- translating to around 90/9/1% of feature occurrences.
Although 100 features is a lot to track on paper, I believe it is a very small sample size to reflect the true sense of the distributions. Maybe 10,000+ events is a more reasonable amount. Either way a huge bankroll is needed if it makes it to the casinos.
Number of hands: 10,221

0 Wild!s = 5000 (48.9%)
1 Wild! = 3365 (32.9%)
2 Wild!s = 1420 (13.9%)
3 Wild!s = 436 (4.3%)

Percentage of Wild! enabled hands = 50.1%, in agreement with "Wild! feature is initiated an average of 1 in 1.96 games".
Wow, egregious error on my part: should read 51.1% for Wild! enabled hands. Still pretty close to expected.

Webman
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Post by Webman »

51.1% is not 51.02%.

RIGGED!

Tedlark
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Posts: 8556
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

Webman wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:18 pm
51.1% is not 51.02%.

RIGGED!
Oh boy! With that coming from you, webman, imagine the firestorm and scorched earth soon to follow.

TripleTriple
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Posts: 818
Joined: Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:18 pm

Post by TripleTriple »

Webman wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:18 pm
51.1% is not 51.02%.

RIGGED!
51.08%. So, lucky me! I was "over-Wild!'d" by six hands...

Tedlark
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Posts: 8556
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

TripleTriple wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 3:35 pm
Webman wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:18 pm
51.1% is not 51.02%.

RIGGED!
51.08%. So, lucky me! I was "over-Wild!'d" by six hands...
I've been "over-Served" by six thousand bartenders...

Coincidence?

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