Perfect Play

[grandpa]

Thanks  bigsteve and 7come11; I'll make room on my trophy shelf. Size depends on VP results that day - a (rare) good day means a pretty big  head but lately the swelling is being greatly reduced by dismal results in my thus far futile attempt to take control of the contest. Also, an overdose of Molsons can bring about a big head for a day. How about an adjustable hat , suitable for all conditions?  DANGED MACHINE TOLD ME THIS POST DIDN't GET POSTED SO I DID ANOTHER VERSION ; NOW I LOOK LIKE ONE OF THOSE OLD FARTS WHO REPEATS HIMSELF . wait a minute _I am one of those so it's o.k.

[grandpa]

[QUOTE=7come11][QUOTE=bigsteve5273@yahoo.c]Please allow me to reiterate for my own edification:   the more RF"s attempted despite proven strategy the more RF's will be won while at the same time the more money/credits will be lost.   A wonderful time to play a wild eyed , hairy legged strategy and have the greatest fun is during our winner take all contests where bragging rights are at stake  not actual funds.  Go for the gold.  Great luck to you.  I hope you win and should you do so please consider improving our international relations by sending our Canadian friend, Grandpa, a hat.  
 
You're right, it is a risk/reward gamble - guess that's the main reason we all go to casinos.  Plus it's a fun night out! Not too into the contests, for me it's about winning and fun.
Deal - next royal Grandpa get's a hat!  What size
Thanks for the wishes and feedback and may all your hands be quads and royals [/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]

[grandpa]

Thanks for the kind suggestion and offer bigsteve and 7come11; I'll be clearing a prominent spot on the trophy shelf. Hat size depends on VP results that day - a (rare) good day means a pretty big head but lately the swelling is being greatly reduced by dismal results in my attempt to take control of the contest. Also an excess of Molsons can cause a temporary enlargement. Maybe one of those classy hats with the adjustable  band in the back?? - I've been saving up for one of those.

[bigsteve5273@yahoo.c]

Thanks Mike A. for the analysis and rule.  I missed 7come11's question entirely because of falsely assuming he tossed a high pair.   Great luck to all the contesters.    

[scorpio2]

ok,i have that vp optimal playing book.guess it's for short playing,one day,etc. vs over a week,month,etc. payback.also dueces wild full pay 99.7% payback,is that for 1 day,month,or forever payback?

[MikeA]

ok,i have that vp optimal playing book.guess it's for short playing,one day,etc. vs over a week,month,etc. payback.also dueces wild full pay 99.7% payback,is that for 1 day,month,or forever payback?Scorpio2,I don't think I've ever seen any Payback, ER or EV calculation that included a number of hands or duration of any kind.What you must understand is that those figures are "projections" based on the probabilities of your results when playing a specific game with specific paytables and playing it with the best possible strategy.  Since they are "projections", the longer you play the more likely you are to achieve those projected figures.  Does that make sense?  Of the three possible answers you stated, I'd say "forever" would be the best though months would be a better answer than weeks and weeks would be better than days.I was reading a thread on VP over on "another" forum.  Part of the discussion had to do with a money management strategy where you would be better off if you quit while your are ahead.  Well DUH!  If you always quit when you were ahead and always played until you were ahead so that you NEVER left a machine until you were ahead, then most assuredly you would WIN.  I had to chuckle when I read through it.  This ties in with your question because in any given short term session, you can either win or lose or break even.  If you leave when you are ahead does that mean that the "system" works?  My answer to that would be "YES" it works if you quit while you are ahead and NEVER PLAY AGAIN!  When you are thinking about these paybacks in conjunction with any time period, decide ahead of time whether you are ever going to play again or not.  If you are, then it is the combination of all the sessions you have ever played that you should factor in when determining whether or not those paybacks are valid.  Thinking in terms of only the short term or maybe even a single session or even a group of sessions that constitute a "trip" is okay, but you really need to track all of your sessions no matter how spread out they are if you are going to depend on those Payback numbers applying to you.  You almost certainly will NOT see them in a one hour session.  But you probably will start to see your personal results approaching those numbers over a much larger number of hands (and time!)

[New2vp]

ok,i have that vp optimal playing book.guess it's for short playing,one day,etc. vs over a week,month,etc. payback.also dueces wild full pay 99.7% payback,is that for 1 day,month,or forever payback?
Expected value (EV) is a theoretical weighted average of all possible values, using the probabilities of attaining each value as weights.  Generally, full pay Deuces Wild (paying 5 per coin for quads and 15/9 for quints and straight flushes) has an EV of 100.76%, meaning that if you multiply the probabilities by the various results that you can get and add up these products, you will receive, on average, 100.76% of the coins that you bet.  The number that you quoted (99.7%) is more commonly associated with what is known as Not So Ugly Deuces (paying 4 for both quads and full houses and 16/10 for quints and straight flushes).
 
Expected value applies to all of the below:  per hand, per hour, per week, per month, per lifetime.  It is not a promise of an actual result, but is an average result of all the possibilities that might occur.  If you bet once, using 5 coins, the average result will be roughly .997 x 5 = 4.985 coins.  Dividing 4.985 by 5 yields back 99.7%.  If you bet twice, the average result will be .997 x 5 x 2 = 9.97 coins.  Dividing 9.97 by the 10 coins bet yields 99.7%.  If you have a million plays, you will again get 99.7%, because we will first multiply .997 x 5 by a million to represent what you will get back on average, and then divide the million coins that you put in the machine back out.
 
None of this tells you how close you will actually come to 99.7%.  You are more likely to get closer to 99.7% after more play rather than less play.  But even after a lifetime of play, if you play perfectly by always selecting the cards that have the highest expected value based on the cards dealt, your results will likely not be exactly 99.7%.
 
Expected value is sort of a poor name.  The expected value when tossing a fair die is 3.5, since you are equally likely to get the values of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.  (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) / 6 = 3.5.  Now, no one expects to actually get 3.5 on the next toss of the die or any toss of the die, since it is impossible; it is not one of the six possible values.  But after throwing the die many times, the actual average will likely get closer and closer to the theoretical average of the possible values, the expected value, 3.5.

[7come11]

I would have thought as you on that because of the loss of numbers of ways to hit pairs.  I thought also that I'd covered all the combinations last night.  I DIDN'T.  I forgot about the 2-high-card 3RF hands.

Good catch!

I was "slow" last night and am pretty "slow" this morning too!  It took me a while to understand why the 2-high card 3RF was different depending on whether or not one of those 2 high cards was an ACE!  Obviously (well not so obviously to ME this morning!) You cannot get a normal SF if one of the cards is an ACE.  You can only get the Royal. 


              ev         #     no   hp    2p   3ok    st    fl   fh    4k    234   ace   234+ a234+  SF    RF
K?J?10?    6.79          1,081    739    240    27    9    30    34    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1
K?J?10?5?    6.383          47    32    6    0    0    0    9    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0


3RF 2 high cards when one IS an ACE

10?J?A?5?    6.383    47    32    6    0    0    0    9    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0     0
10?J?A?    6.30895    1,081    754    240    27    9    15    35    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1



All of these are relatively "close calls".  8-One-Hundreths of a coin difference is pretty significant at $.02 per wrong play at the Quarter level.



 
Mike A and ShadowMan - thanks so much for your detailed analysis on this one.  I'd always held 3RF in this situation and thought it was the right call. However after seeing VPW telling me I was incorrect, had to check it out further.  You guys did a great job clarifying the numbers and odds to me. I am very greatful. 
Going on a Tahoe trip in a few weeks and want to make sure I've got all my basis covered.  Be staying at Harveys but doing most gambling at Bill's Gambling Hall. Cheapo Vegas says they have a lot of full pay machines and I'm guessing Harvey's is a lot like the strip. 
LOL - first trip to Nevada that wasn't Vegas and looking forward to the change of pace and the beauty of the lake.
Thank You again, hopefully I'll hit a couple royals...and a great craps and BJ session while at it.
Cheers - 7come11

[7come11]

Thanks  bigsteve and 7come11; I'll make room on my trophy shelf. Size depends on VP results that day - a (rare) good day means a pretty big  head but lately the swelling is being greatly reduced by dismal results in my thus far futile attempt to take control of the contest. Also, an overdose of Molsons can bring about a big head for a day. How about an adjustable hat , suitable for all conditions?  DANGED MACHINE TOLD ME THIS POST DIDN't GET POSTED SO I DID ANOTHER VERSION ; NOW I LOOK LIKE ONE OF THOSE OLD FARTS WHO REPEATS HIMSELF . wait a minute _I am one of those so it's o.k.
 
How about a large sombrero with adjustable straps! They really come in handy for sun protection in the Vegas heat...and if I hit more than 1 Royal, a large cowboy hat (real leather!)

[EDC1977]

Perhaps a VP.com Stetson hat would be a nice offering.