Roveer 5/20 Harrah's AC

[backsider]

Three million hands is a drop in the bucket for the casinos, so for a player its nothing more than entry level. Quit trying to say we who play less than the,best paytables should lose. We dont, and youre wrong. Not even close. Now take a moment to collect yourself. Probabilities may mean something to dreamers in the classroom, but its a joke to players at machines.

Billy, dont let this nervous person spoil your gaming experience. Hes most likely another failed AP who tells his story from the angle he only wishes it would have turned out. That could be why hes so angry all the time.

[shadowman]

Three million hands is a drop in the bucket for the casinos, so for a player its nothing more than entry level.
 
Which has absolutely nothing to do with the discussion. The question was whether a pay table could make a difference on a stated level of play.
 
Quit trying to say we who play less than the,best paytables should lose.
 
Why not? It's the truth.
 
We dont, and youre wrong. Not even close. Now take a moment to collect yourself. Probabilities may mean something to dreamers in the classroom, but its a joke to players at machines.
 
More players who play short paytables lose than players who play good paytables. Is that really so hard to understand?
 
In addition, I suspect if you went up and asked most "players at machines" if they would opt for a 99% chance of being ahead vs. <1%, that most of them would go for the 99%. I can only guess why you wouldn't.

Billy, dont let this nervous person spoil your gaming experience. Hes most likely another failed AP who tells his story from the angle he only wishes it would have turned out. That could be why hes so angry all the time.
 
Nervous? Angry? Failed? .... So, have you been following me around? You claim to have such detailed knowledge of me. No? You just made it up? Now, why would you do that? Why would you make such silly claims with no clue? And, why would you claim no one cares about have having a better chance at winning?
 
One can only wonder at the motivations of such inane comments, but I do find it somewhat humorous that you appear to think it makes sense.

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=billyjoe]
I would love for someone to tell or show me how MUCH play it takes for that pay table deficiency to really 'guarantee' losing.   


 
There are no guarantees in gambling. There are only probabilities.
 
A 4 hour session 5 days a month at 600 hands an hour (extremely conservative) yields 12K hands a month. That's 144K hands at year. Now, assuming you play for another 20 years that's close to 3 million hands. Now, this included no multi-play and fairly slow play. Your reality may be double that number since we know you often play multi-play.
 
The way probabilities work is the more you play the higher the probability you will approach the expected return. For example, playing those 3 million hands would yield about a 99% probability of behind ahead playing FPDW. However, even playing full pay BP would yield a <1% chance of being ahead. So, in the end it's all up to you. Which sounds better?
 
The point is that playing a poorer paytable starts affecting your return on the very first hand you play and continues on from there. Sure, there will be bumps along the way, but the one has assume they will be very lucky to overcome the negative effects of the poor paytable rather than the continual positive effects of a good paytable. [/QUOTE]
Thanks for the response, Shadow. We will just skip around BS's comments, if it's OK with you.
 
You are right, I do play a lot of multi-line games, so that hand count may be a little low on a yearly basis. Of course, each trip is different, and money management dictates the amount of play in any given trip.
 
The hook for me, though, is playing in casinos where I can acheive tier status and comps. Paying for all that I receive, while perhaps yeilding a better financial bottom line on any given trip, would be tough for me, since I have enjoyed top tier status at Harrahs/Caesars and MGM Int'l properties for several years. Playing at other properties where perhaps better pay tables could be found would be difficult for me, since I enjoy the portability of the tier status that I have earned as I travel around the country. For example, as an MGM NOIR tier, I receive a minimum of $1,000 each month in FreePlay at the Beau Rivage casino in Biloxi, my closest venue from here in Florida. This is on top of airafare, room, meals, golf and limo transportation. Foregoing play at Aria, Bellagio or Mirage to go to GVR or Stations while in Vegas would mean ultimately losing that status, and those comps. Yes, I would receive comps from those other properties, but ONLY when I am in Vegas.   
 
So, I admit,  the casino rewards programs are well crafted to influence players like me into maintaining a certain level of loyalty.      

[backsider]

And a certain level of losses.

Shadow, you certainly ARE a conflicted and angry person. Why else do you get all worked up about this minuscule stuff?    Its almost like you sit there all day every day, waiting for an opinion to appear that does not jive with yours, so you can huff and puff for some reason. And I have to admit, theres times I do it on purpose just to watch the show.

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, an APer would take the cashback and/or freeplay into consideration as part of the machine return. So, if you are playing something like 9/6 DDB at around 99% return that could be much closer to 100%.
 
It's generally not too difficult to make the computation necessary. How much play did it take to earn the $1000 freeplay? If there is cashback, what determines the amount?
 
This is where multipliers can really help. For example, I used to play at Tuscany where they did not have single game over 100%, however when I played with the 10x multiplier and figured in all these cash incentives the total return was over 101%.

[BillyJoe]

Billy Joe, an APe would take the cash back and/or freeplay into consideration as part of the machine return. So, if you are playing something like 9/6 DDB at around 99% return that could be much closer to 100%.
 
It's generally not too difficult to make the computation necessary. How much play did it take to earn the $1000 freeplay? If there is cash back, what determines the amount?
 
This is where multipliers can really help. For example, I used to play at Tuscany where they did not have single game over 100%, however when I played with the 10x multiplier and figured in all these cash incentives the total return was over 101%.
Shadow, at MGM properties, there is no cash back. You get Point Play as you play, and can convert it to FreePlay right at the machine. You also earn Express Reward dollars, which currently can only be used for food, golf, spa and rooms - no retail. That's a little different from Harrah's/Caesars Total Rewards program, which allows you to use your earned TR credits for anything, including retail and catalog items ( I get a lot of gas cards, since you always are going to be buying gas).  In addition,I get monthly mailers from both property groups, which provide FreePlay and gifts from specific properties. Both programs have multiplier days and events, so you can accumulate those reward points faster.    
As far as the $1000/mo FreePlay @ the Beau Rivage in Biloxi (also another $1000/mo @ Gold Strike in Tunica, but I rarely get up there), there are no play requirements. They give that to you each month as long as you maintain your MLife NOIR tier. Of course, you have to play to maintain the tier, but you do not have to play @ the Beau to do that. Actually, your tier points for the MLife program accumulate at a higher rate in Vegas properties than Mississippi properties, so conceivably, I could stop playing at the Beau, use their monthly FreePlay, and just play in Vegas to maintain my tier status. I think it is quite a a nice benefit.
You also earn Xmas Gift Points in both programs, but only from your play at Vegas properties. 
So, I am not sure how you take all that in consideration of a VP pay table return, considering that I am also full RFB and airfare at both property groups for my stays, which does not come out of any of those award programs. That's why I say that it would be tough for me to move to a stand-alone casino, in spite of a better VP paytable.    

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, the computation for the freeplay should not be that difficult. Also for the gas cards. How much coin-in is required to attain your tier status? How much of these rewards to you get each year?
 
For example, if it takes a million dollars coin-in to get $2,000 of freeplay that would add .2% to the games return. Same for the gas cards.
 
Now, the other non cash-equivalent items depend on how you want to value them. Once you do put a value on them then you can make the same computations.

[BillyJoe]

Billyjoe, the computation for the freeplay should not be that difficult. Also for the gas cards. How much coin-in is required to attain your tier status? How much of these rewards to you get each year?
 
For example, if it takes a million dollars coin-in to get $2,000 of freeplay that would add .2% to the games return. Same for the gas cards.
 
Now, the other non cash-equivalent items depend on how you want to value them. Once you do put a value on them then you can make the same computations.
Thanks, Shadow. It would take more math and time than I would care to invest to get precise . I do know that I have not had to pay cash for gas in many years, and this year, cashed in TR credits for $5,000 in Home Depot Gift Cards to do some home remodeling. Also, all family Xmas gifts and family dinner gatherings each year are paid for with those rewards in one form or another. All my 'toys' come from casinos, such as GPS, Notebooks, Kindles and of course, golf clubs and clothing, including hats .  
 
So in general, I would like to think that all those comps would significantly improve a poor TDB 9/5  97% paytable, which is usually the worst that I encounter. I would doubt it would get above 3%, but who knows.

[shadowman]

Billyjoe, I just wanted to give you an idea of how you could determine the value of those extras as it related to your overall play. The real key is whether you perceive you are getting value out of your casino play. As long as it's affordable, fun and entertaining then you are doing fine.

[backsider]

I have one thing to add billy. If that were me I could easily value all those casino goodies at over 3%, because why not? If youre not losing any money you couldnt afford to and youre enjoying that type of rationalization with no IRS tax problems that you didnt count on, more power to you.

But remember, and few would ever say this even though we all know it to be true. If you were playing a 99% paytable, you may have done a little better and wouldnt need to value all those things as high, but you also could have done worse, in which case your valuation would have needed to go the other way. This is how I believe ALL APs come up with winning years. They may SAY it isnt so, but hey, name a casino that doesnt have a problem with "winners" who play millions through those machines every year and in many instances, every month.

Common sense for the shadow to consider.