OK What Would YOU do??

[DaBurglar]

I don't know if people understand exactly how bad a bet going for the royal here really is.You can expect to make the royal once every 47 times. The other 46 times you will get nothing or measly straights, flushes, or high pairs.If you were presented with this exact hand 47 times, you'd expect around $1085 in return going for the royal every time.  If you were to hold the pat straight flushes, you would have $3525.  It would be a horrible, horrible play to break it and hold 4 cards.  Horrible.You already got extremely lucky getting the dealt straight flush and are paid handsomely for it in Super Aces Bonus.


  I gotta commend Quaddeuces here, his previous posts were classic sarcasm/satirical MASTERPIECES!!  lol    I actually had a moment where I believed QUaddeuces previous posts were 100% serious and started to think "just what in theeee helll is he thinking!?!?"     But this last post where he clarifies and captures the essence of the stupidity involved in junking the Straightflush is spot on....  I made a mistake in my previous post where I stated I would "obviously" discard the 9club  IF it were NICKELS but would keep it for any other denomination that was HIGHER in value......instead of "obviously" I should have stated "Possibly" because it would depend on how my overall session and bankroll was doing in determining if I would go for the Royal at the 5 cent level.   If I was wayyyy ahead or my bankroll was in excellent shape, then I might toss the 5 cent straight flush (worth 15 bucks) and go for the $200 jackpot.    But even this is a clear bonehead play, but I might be in a "gambling GAMBLING" mood and 15 bucks isnt a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (hopefully lol)

[Vman96]

   If I was wayyyy ahead or my bankroll was in excellent shape, then I might toss the 5 cent straight flush (worth 15 bucks) and go for the $200 jackpot.    But even this is a clear bonehead play, but I might be in a "gambling GAMBLING" mood and 15 bucks isnt a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (hopefully lol)

When the payout for the SF is this high, it's just a really bad gamble. Even if it's for pennies and the SF is worth $3 and the Royal is $40. You will lose ~$2 on average. It's similar to hitting 19 or 20 in blackjack. Do that in blackjack, and you will really never hear the end of it.

[Tedlark]

What's blackjack?

[DaBurglar]

 
When the payout for the SF is this high, it's just a really bad gamble. Even if it's for pennies and the SF is worth $3 and the Royal is $40. You will lose ~$2 on average. It's similar to hitting 19 or 20 in blackjack. Do that in blackjack, and you will really never hear the end of it.
  True Vman, from a MATHEMATICAL point of view, what you say is correct.....but in reality we are comparing apples to hand grenades  when we juxtapose 5 cent VP to Blackjack.... All things considered, I doubt I would ever really toss the SF, but I never say never....we have all seen it happen, a person does the unthinkable in any casino game and BOOM...lightning strikes and they win the most improbable result. I dont drink alcohol (anymore), but there have been times when, at 3:30 am I am guzzling Coffee or Hot Cocoa and get on a really good sugar High and I become silly or giddy....if I was way ahead and felt like doing something wild and was dealt this hand on a 5 cent machine I might take the shot.  Or if someone like my cousin DARED me on a bet (we always make side bets and propositions when we play together, so depending on what the proposition was it may actually be in my financial interest to toss the SF lol, but thats between myself and my cousin!) This type of situation that started this thread really truly captures the essence of what VP and gambling is supposed to be all about....having fun and taking fun controlled risks   EDITED TO ADD:   In 1998, Downtown Vegas, at the Four Queens, I was playing Double Deck BJ, 10 dollar minimum, at 6:30 am (I had just woke up and was enjoying my coffee while playing a few hands.)     Some older gentleman and his wife (both of whom looked like celbrity couple Jerry Stiller and Anne Meara) were clearly inebriated after a all night binge and bought in for over 2 grand in chips.....the guy had trouble staying on the stool so the pit boss came over and propped him up while his wife fumbled with all the chips.   ABout five hands into the session, I am playing third base and they are on the opposite side of the table and they BOTH get 21 au natural, each with a green 25 dollar chip in front.   Now, the four queens at this time DID NOT look under their hole card when the dealer had a ten showing (many downtown casinos during this time period had the practice of NOT looking under hole cards unless it was an ACE) The dealer upon seeing the two 21s between the couple skips them and proceeds to the player sitting between myself and the drunk couple.  But the old guy immediately Bellows "WAIT WHOA WHOA....let me think here, I want to double down.....maybe, wait, um, Honey what do you think?"    he turns to his wife who has quietly nodded out, and the dealer goes "Ma'am! MISS?!?   You need to stay awake or you will have to leave..." The lady startles awake and goes "Did the Penguins win?"   (obviously the couple was from the pittsburgh area)   The old guy goes, "Look honey!   I am going to double down!"  By now the dealer has signalled for the pitt boss and he is standing next to the old guy, and when the old guy says to the dealer "double down!" and moves three 25 dollar chips up (remember he bet ONLY one chip lol)  The pitt boss intervenes and says, "Sir, are you sure you want to do this?" and at the same time he removes two of the players chips to correct the bet.   The lady is silent again and starting to pass out once more, and the old guy goes (in a deep exagerated voice) "yesssssssss I'm sure....hit me for christ' sake while I am hott!" The boss pauses for a second, looks to the dealer, then looks up at a camera and does some type of third base coach hand motion and the game proceeds.   The Old drunk idiot receives a ....(drum roll).....a NINE!!!!   By now a small crowd of 5 or 6 spectators surrounds our table, and the wife awakes once more as her husband exclaims "Sh*T!  I wanted a face card!"    The lady has the sense her husband doesnt have and wants to keep her natural, but the husband insists, "No honey Double down....Double DOWN!!!"   So Anne meara-lookalike double downs, the pit boss, by now clearly flummoxed to have this mini-circus happening on his "quiet" pre-dawn hour graveyard shift, gives to OK and the dealer hits the lady's 21......(another drumroll please)  a Nine again!    Now what are the odds of that, if we stop here?  (I'm asking, someone do the math, I'm too busy typing this story) The middle player stands on 17, and it comes to me.....I have a pair of deuces for a crappy four.....now it occurs to me that by taking these two hits, the drunk players have prevented me from busting (the two nines would have given me 22) so I am cautiously optimistice as I signal "HIT".....a 10 (crap!)  hit me again.....a 6!   Aha!  20  STAND! Dealer turns over his card and reveals a 7!   Everyone applauds (even the middle guy who pushed because his 17 looked mighty vulnerable against a 10 showing) I won 15 bucks and drunk senior citizens collected 100 between them. Two hands later, after the lady almost slid off her stool and the fumes from both players posing a fire hazard, the pit boss "INVITED" them to leave and go have a complimentary Omelette or stack of pancakes (anything to soak up the booze) in the house restaurant/coffee shop. I miss Downtown Vegas in the 90s

[shadowman]

It's getting pretty evident that new2vp has some competition. Well, maybe not quite up to new's standard of words/comment, but getting there.

[BobDancer]

Anyone who has attended my classes has seen the 'KQJT9' "chicken versus gambler" hand. It's discussed almost every week. The "correct" answer is never close according to the methodology used by successful players (i.e. be a gambler in Deuces Wild variations and a chicken all the rest of the time) --- but there are always those who do not understand or accept that methodology as being relevant for them right now. The postings in this thread are fairly representative of the differences of opinion on the hand.It used to bother me a lot more than it does now that some people just don't "get it." My chosen profession is to explain the "EV approach" to anyone who WANTS to understand it, but if someone wants to take another approach that's really okay with me. I'll sleep just as well whether there were 0 or 50 posts saying things like "always go for the royal," or "if I'm playing for nickels I do it this way but if I'm playing for quarters I do it that way."  I can't claim to have always been this mellow about these differences of opinions. I've definitely constructed my share of mathematical and other proofs attempting to show that somebody else didn't know his ace from a hole in the ground. And composing those proofs at least have the benefit of helping me get my own thoughts in order --- whether or not they convinced anybody else.So now I try to say things like "this is what I would do," without always adding "although I wouldn't have been caught dead playing that particular pay schedule." If someone wants to follow along and do the same as me they are welcome to do so. If they don't, I'm okay with that too.I do sleep better than I used to.Bob

[BillyJoe]

It used to bother me a lot more than it does now that some people just don't "get it." My chosen profession is to explain the "EV approach" to anyone who WANTS to understand it, but if someone wants to take another approach that's really okay with me. I'll sleep just as well whether there were 0 or 50 posts saying things like "always go for the royal," or "if I'm playing for nickels I do it this way but if I'm playing for quarters I do it that way." 

I can't claim to have always been this mellow about these differences of opinions. I've definitely constructed my share of mathematical and other proofs attempting to show that somebody else didn't know his ace from a hole in the ground. And composing those proofs at least have the benefit of helping me get my own thoughts in order --- whether or not they convinced anybody else.

So now I try to say things like "this is what I would do," without always adding "although I wouldn't have been caught dead playing that particular pay schedule." If someone wants to follow along and do the same as me they are welcome to do so. If they don't, I'm okay with that too.

I do sleep better than I used to.

Bob

Hallelujah !! It sounds like Bob finally got his meds right..
 
I, of course, am still searching...

[roveer]

Two words, (repeated several times) seed money, seed money, seed money.  I'd have taken the SF and had the dough for when the royal hit.  My trainer has shown me this over time.  I used to make these "go for it" mistakes all the time when I first started to play.  It really hurts when it's for a decent sum of money.  Some time it makes you look the fool.  in my DDB my friend twice got a FH with 3 Aces.  Both times he asked me what he should do and both times I told him it's 400 quarters (harrah's pay tables) playing STP 10 hands.  The correct play is to break up the FH and shoot for the moon.  First time he bonked out and the people watching looked at me like I gave bad advice.  2nd time he hit for 2000 coins and felt redeemed.  Of course I gave all the disclaimers and told him what the stratedgy play was and then explained what he was giving up to do it.  That's about the best you can do when giving advice.
 
I'm more concerned with hitting perfect play than I am in following hunches.  Not to say that I don't chase them somtimes, but when I'm looking at a winning hand and following strategy, than it's a simple decision.  I believe in the statistics of perfect play and don't let my whims get in the way.
 
Roveer
 

[Tedlark]

  I, too, share the same outlook as roveer. I will take a 400 coin payout for a dealt FH almost, I say almost, everytime but I will occasionally play a hunch and go for the 4oak. If I am playing a machine with TDB I will more than likely draw for the 4oak if the FH is comprised of 3 premium cards such as aces, 2's, 3's, or 4's. Because billyjoe also favors TDB he might also make this play.
 
  I also share roveer's outlook on seed money as this is what makes the videopoker world go round.
 
  Good luck to all.

[spxChrome]

What's blackjack?
 lol. go for the royal its why you play the game