help with the math

[shadowman]

Shadowman, Where do you find the 100.28? I haven't played OEJ since TI pulled the older machines out. Did they increase the paytables on some of the newer machines?

The paytable I play is the original version of OEJs when it was created for the Grand Casinos. After the Grand's got bought out by Harrahs (now Caesars), the game was opened up for other venues.

There was also a version of OEJs that only existed in Sam's Town (101.4%). Long gone now.

The casinos with the old paytable are the Grands in Minnesota.

[Rayser]

thanks Shadowman

[notes1]

hey math folks,  would welcome your help with a couple of math scenarios. do not know if i am giving you enough info. 1- hypothetical. what would be the expected additional loss one would expect from playing a 7.5/5 vs a 9/6 machine. five coin max, single line DDB, playing 400 hands/hour. i know there are no 7.5 machines, but many casino offer both 8 and 7. also know, just do not play the 7 machines.  2- real experience. can you tell me the difference between what my expected loss would have been vs my actual loss of about $1k. played approx 5000 hands (guesstimate) over 12-13 hours, single line, 5 coin, quarter, 7.5/5, 90/10 ddb/tdb. actual premium hands, no rf, no quad a's, no quad 2's, 3-quad 3's no/kicker, 1-quad 4' w/kicker, all on ddb. played at a CET casino, earned 1004 tier credits, if that helps. thanks in advance.   

[olds442jetaway]

I don't know the exact answer, but as a guess, I would guess an additional hundred bucks or so. Your actual result unfortunately sounds all too familiar to me out here in Ct. I strayed a session or two from single coin play and yours was the approximate result I achieved. Long run, the penalty for playing less than 9/6 is severe. Short run it means nothing as we have seen from many of the great hits posted here with terrible paytables. I am curious too if the exact answer is similar to my guess.

[notes1]

olds, you may not have noticed, but i have been VERY sympathetic to your recent VP experiences. while my 2014 losses do not come close to yours, there is only one person playing in my household and i do not play as often as you. to get a good sampling, i played in multiple states and at mutiple properties. i also spread my play among indian and corporate ownership. it did seem i had a little better luck at indian casinos, but the overall results were still dismal.  while i do not play perfectly, i do know that i made no mistakes, that caused me to give away a big/winning hand. i would prefer bad play was the problem, i could correct that.  do not want to bore everyone, but i have an example, in another area that i think correlates to the casino business. for 27 years, my wife and i belonged to the same country club. wonderful place, wide variety of members, not cheap, but we thought it was worth what we spent. in mid 2000, a group gained power and decided like many others in that time period, to upgrade all the buildings. spent and BORROWED well over $10 million. their feeling was 'build and they will come'. well, they built it and they did not come. so, we went from a no debt to high debt facilty. then the recession came. so, they had to keep raising the monthly cost to compensate for the debt. that caused more people to leave. viscious circle.  after years of debating, we quit. i am so tired of paying for everyone else's dreams and mistakes.   seems to me the same thing has happened to the casino business. too many and too big casinos, not enough players, every state wants that tax revenue. the casinos have lots of fixed expenses, need to cover those obligations, take more from each player that comes. as far as VP goes, i will make adjustments, i will correct my play if i am making mistakes, but i will not spend more than what i think is a fair value.    

[olds442jetaway]

Yes, I have noticed and thanks for the nice replys. Hope both of us and SPX too can break these ice cubes real soon.

[alpax]

hey math folks,  would welcome your help with a couple of math scenarios. do not know if i am giving you enough info. 1- hypothetical. what would be the expected additional loss one would expect from playing a 7.5/5 vs a 9/6 machine. five coin max, single line DDB, playing 400 hands/hour. i know there are no 7.5 machines, but many casino offer both 8 and 7. also know, just do not play the 7 machines.  2- real experience. can you tell me the difference between what my expected loss would have been vs my actual loss of about $1k. played approx 5000 hands (guesstimate) over 12-13 hours, single line, 5 coin, quarter, 7.5/5, 90/10 ddb/tdb. actual premium hands, no rf, no quad a's, no quad 2's, 3-quad 3's no/kicker, 1-quad 4' w/kicker, all on ddb. played at a CET casino, earned 1004 tier credits, if that helps. thanks in advance.   

To answer your question directly

9/6 DDB has a return of 98.98% (1.02 loss) with optimal play
8/5 DDB (avoid 7/5 unless you are at Beau Rivage in Biloxi) has a return of 96.79% (3.21 loss) with optimal play.

400 hands an hour (relative speed for those using touchscreen all the time) at $1.25 per bet (5 credit quarters) is $500 coin in an hour.

The average loss on a 9/6 DDB is $5.10 in quarters ($20.40 in dollars)
The average loss on a 8/5 DDB is $16.05 in quarters ($64.20 in dollars)

DDB being the volatile game it is hardly reaches the average loss during a play station, it is heaven or hell. $200 bankroll in quarters can go down in an hour based on personal experience.

I saw mostly 9/5 DDB at CET properties in Vegas, and that is what most recreational people play. But if your play at CEt properties 8/5 DDB, your $1000 bankroll will be wiped in 62 hours of play on average. ($31,152 coin in, 24922 hands).

[notes1]

alpax, THANKS SO MUCH, i do not know how long it took you to do the math, but i am grateful. couple of follow-up questions and comments; -the average additional expected loss rate, when comparing a 9/6 vs a 8/5, is greater than 3 to 1. all i can say is WOW. i had no idea it was that great, but it explains a lot. -while there may be better paying machines in vegas, many of us are limited to our regional casinos.  -if one were to play a 7/5 machine, can i presume the difference when compared to a 9/6, would be a 6 to 1 expected loss.  if one were to play a 12 hour session, comparing the 'old' payouts compared to 'newer' payouts, one could expect to lose an additional $500 or more, on a 25 cent machine. and, this does not count, the normal volatility that can happen. i am probably alone on this, but i am absolutely shocked. did not know, what seemed like a minor adjustment, could have such a big impact. thanks again! 

[Vman96]

alpax, THANKS SO MUCH, i do not know how long it took you to do the math, but i am grateful. couple of follow-up questions and comments; -the average additional expected loss rate, when comparing a 9/6 vs a 8/5, is greater than 3 to 1. all i can say is WOW. i had no idea it was that great, but it explains a lot. -while there may be better paying machines in vegas, many of us are limited to our regional casinos.  -if one were to play a 7/5 machine, can i presume the difference when compared to a 9/6, would be a 6 to 1 expected loss.  if one were to play a 12 hour session, comparing the 'old' payouts compared to 'newer' payouts, one could expect to lose an additional $500 or more, on a 25 cent machine. and, this does not count, the normal volatility that can happen. i am probably alone on this, but i am absolutely shocked. did not know, what seemed like a minor adjustment, could have such a big impact. thanks again! 

The reason why the expected loss rate is much higher relatively with 8/5 vs. 9/6 because the rate you lose is how far you are away from 100% return. "Full Pay" games are close to 100% return, so you don't lose a bunch.

As for 7/5 DDB, the house edge of that is 100% - 95.71% = 4.29%.

Compare that to the house edge of 9/6 DDB which is 100% - 98.98% = 1.02%

So given perfect play, one would expect to lose... 4.29% / 1.02% = 4.206 times more on a 7/5 DDB machine vs. 9/6.

As for your actual results, they don't sound great, but not unheard of for a real session. But I wonder did you play more hands, play higher denominations or play other games? 1004 Tier Credits at CET is a lot more than 5000 hands at quarters.

[notes1]

vman, i did not play higher denomination. i played less than $100 on 25 cent slots. i stated i was only guessing when i said 500 hands, that is why i listed the tier points.  losing $1k is not the normal rule, but happening more often than in years past. not getting any quad a's and not getting a premium hand on tdb, makes a big difference.   i played one other time this year, down in Tampa. played about 24 total hours. similar mix of ddb and tdb single line. had four $500 pay hands, but still lost money overall.  that is why i am interested in what the difference between the old and new typical payouts for FH and flushes. as someone who has played for about 8 years and knows the correct plays, i should have known what a big difference was involved. no one to blame but myself for not knowing. but, in the end, whether i knew what a big difference it made, really does not matter, other than me being more informed. if one wants to play and not travel to nevada, one is limited to what each casino offers,