Closed for maintenance?

[alpax]

To explain the 4% chance.

There is 20% chance to be at 98% return after playing 500k hands of 9/6 DDB optimally. And 20% chance have it happen for the next another 500k hands which will make it a million hands.

.20 * .20 = 0.04 (4% chance of being under 98% overall payout on a 98.98% DDB payout game after a million hands)

[olds442jetaway]

Very interesting and thanks for running the numbers. In my case over 5 million hands 2010-2014 average game between 98% and 99.5% with very close to perfect play and running the 95% return for each and every one of those years. Also the Royal hit percentage is unbelievable as most of you know from my prior posts. That makes up about 2 percent right there.

[roveer]

I'll to this conversation.

Somewhere about 2.5 years ago Harrah's changed their machines to the newer versions. As many know I play mostly STP DDB. I was very leery of the change to new machines I had pretty much convinced myself that the "good days" where gone. I figured I'd give it a chance, learn my lessen and move one. To my surprise they played pretty true. I think I hit dealt quad aces on my 2nd or 3rd visit.   Since I don't track per visit stats it's hard for me to say if the new machines paid as well or with a similar number of high quality jackpots but I do remember saying "yeah I can live with this". Than came fall 2014. In a rip roaring, buggy pulling backup beeping parade of blue jump suited tech's most of the VP in the casino was systematically switch out. Basically they were doing motherboard swaps. The motherboards are almost always on a metal box type carrier and can easily be pulled out of the machine. Over a period of several weeks I'd regularly see this slamming, banging exercise going on all over the casino. There were 2 things I noticed after these swaps.

1. After what seems like a random number of hands the bill acceptor light will go out and the machine will not allow you to deal a new hand. At first I just noticed on a number of machines, but now it seems like it's just about every machine I play.

2. They just ain't pay'n like they used to. I am no longer able to get a rally going no matter how much I try and how much I gamble. There were many previous posts of mine where I would have 8-10 hand pays in a visit. Now getting 2 seems like a distant memory. I think I was having 70-80 hand pays a year a few years back. In 2015 I'm at 4. Now my play has changed quite a bit, and currently I'm not playing at all, but I was playing my normal schedule at the beginning of the year, still very little action.

If I had to guess I'd say that IGT has done something with their code that still meets the regulations but has an effect on the game.

I often wondered if the light going out and inability to deal quirk was to prevent players from dealing their hand quickly after the end of the last game. I can remember times where that little technique "seemed" to get me some really great jackpots. Wondering if they were able to identify that and program it out. Of course that will still keept the machine legal. Nothing in the rules says how fast the machine has to respond, just that it has to follow the rules. This is just my theory on that little jem.

So anyway, it does seem that things are different, but as I have seen posted before, there has always been a "good old days" story, even back in the "good old days". There were times where some were complaining that VP was dead and I was hitting 8+ jackpots a night. I can remember one of my favorite attendants (on more than one occasion), coming to pay me on on JP and then saying, oh I'll wait, your going to get one on that machine too only to hit 4A's or a RF only a few hands later. Ahh, the good old days...

Roveer

[alpax]

The variance on Jacks Or Better is amongst the lowest (if not
the lowest), you will see results closer to the neighborhood within the
theoretical return, it should not deviate as bad as 95% knowing that you are playing competently, would take big misplays to get that low.I believe I've run the VPW simulator for a long time on Jacks or Better, about 250k hands I got a range from 98.4% to 100.1%. I will run it again to see how it goes, but the bell curve is much narrow than DDB for sure.Btw, it will probably take me 10 years to play 500k hands at the current rate Im going.

[MPD001]

Than came fall 2014. In a rip roaring, buggy pulling backup beeping parade of blue jump suited tech's most of the VP in the casino was systematically switch out. Basically they were doing motherboard swaps. The motherboards are almost always on a metal box type carrier and can easily be pulled out of the machine. Over a period of several weeks I'd regularly see this slamming, banging exercise going on all over the casino. There were 2 things I noticed after these swaps.

1. After what seems like a random number of hands the bill acceptor light will go out and the machine will not allow you to deal a new hand. At first I just noticed on a number of machines, but now it seems like it's just about every machine I play.

If I had to guess I'd say that IGT has done something with their code that still meets the regulations but has an effect on the game.

I often wondered if the light going out and inability to deal quirk was to prevent players from dealing their hand quickly after the end of the last game. I can remember times where that little technique "seemed" to get me some really great jackpots. Wondering if they were able to identify that and program it out. Of course that will still keept the machine legal. Nothing in the rules says how fast the machine has to respond, just that it has to follow the rules. This is just my theory on that little gem.

Roveer

I believe what you see is the more frequent re-seeding of the RNG, displacing to another part of the number string. While still random, this additional sequencing seems to make it more difficult to catch premium hands.

[MPD001]

The variance on Jacks Or Better is amongst the lowest (if not
the lowest), you will see results closer to the neighborhood within the
theoretical return, it should not deviate as bad as 95% knowing that you are playing competently, would take big misplays to get that low.I believe I've run the VPW simulator for a long time on Jacks or Better, about 250k hands I got a range from 98.4% to 100.1%. I will run it again to see how it goes, but the bell curve is much narrow than DDB for sure.Btw, it will probably take me 10 years to play 500k hands at the current rate Im going.

The theoretical return on any VP game is just that - theoretical. Since VP is a game of independent trials, any particular player may never see the EV, or even operate within the range of statistical expectations, perfect play or not. Lower variance games, of course, will provide a better opportunity.

[ko king]

KK, your stories keep getting better. you said a lot that was of interest. as i do not keep track of percentages, it was good reading that your returns were in line with 'olds' and much less than expected. no one can state that maybe you had faulty memory, as you kept actual stats.  of course, the acceptible curve was also of interest. i am confident that the casinos test their machines to make sure the actual take from a machine closely matches the 'hold', they have programmed ito the machine. i am also confident that they do this on a constant basis. they do not want a machine on the floor, that is not bringing in results less than expected. if a machine were producing less than expected, over the long term, i am sure it would be re-programmed or replaced. but, what happens, when a machine produces more than expected. are they as quick to check out that machine or just look the other way.  

I would suggest that anyone who plays a lot of vp keep god accurate records, the day may come when you have to provide proof, I did. I played with my players card and only played one game at the same denomination. As I played during the year I really paid no attention to my actual pay back percentage and the amount of hands I played were based on estimates of how fast I play and the duration of each session. Now I knew my results were bad the first year from my personal records, but until I received a very detailed report (players statement) that I had to pay $20 for and fill out a form to receive the info I wasn't completely sure as to how bad it was. I could easily take the amount of coin in and determine the amount of hands played from the statement, I was actually pretty close with my own personal records. By using that info and my W-2G's along with my personal records I could see exactly which hands I came up short on that led to my above average amount of losses or 95.4% pay back. At the end of the next year I repeated the entire process all over again and the same exact hands were missing once again which led to almost the same exact loss amount and a pay back percentage of 95.45%, a mirror of the previous year and quite a coincidence. I even went to the trouble of digging up 3 years of play at another casino and found that I was playing just above or very slightly below the advertised pay back percentage each of those three years.

      You bring up a very good point as to what happens if a machine is paying below the curve which I was told was 84%, my honest guess is that they do nothing unless they are confronted with that fact. Even then they have the luxury of saying that many of the players aren't very well educated when it comes to making the correct holds, mistakes also could play a part, both statements would be true, not in my case but I have witnessed more than one player that shouldn't even be playing. Only one time in my over 20 years of playing have I had the pleasure of sitting in front od a machine that went absolutely bonkers, never seen anything like it. As soon as I started playing $2 denomination DDB the machine started dealing quality hands, quads all over the place, vest I can remember around 6 in about 15 minutes of play, no hand pays but the credits were racking up. Then the hand pays started, first it was quad 2's w/kicker, then a few hands later quad kings, then quad 4's, by this time I had a pocket full of tickets. I kept expecting the machine to catch fire because it was hot. Instead it dealt me quad aces w/kicker, after they paid me I turned around and hit quad aces again, another hand pay. Surely this thing was going to die like it had been shot any second. Not the case, dealt 4 to the royal and out popped the magic card, another large hand pay. After several near misses I popped it again for quad aces w/kicker. This time along with the hand pay came a slot tech who opened up the machine and fiddled around for a few minutes, when he closed the machine back it wouldn't allow any other than .25 denomination to be played. Not pushing my luck any further I decided to cash my tickets and head to the house. What followed was the worst 13 trips in a row I have ever had playing, couldn't hit squat, could have been a good year if I knew the meaning of quitting while I was ahead. Once again I've rambled on but I want to leave you with one last story about that casino that cleaned my clock with back to back 95% pay back. Like always there I was getting my pockets cleaned, reached in for one last $100 bill and only pulled out a handful of lint not to worry I always keep a secret emergency stash folded up in my wallet, 2 $100 dollar bills. I placed the bill on the machine, chose my game and denomination and the machine locked up with a completely black screen. Couldn't cash out and the service button didn't even work. I kept pushing every button but the screen remained black and flashed the words "checking memory pattern" over and over again. Couldn't find a slot tech anywhere, finally after around 15 minutes the screen returned to normal and dealt 5 cards without me pushing a button. A dealt royal appeared on the screen, not sure as to what was happening I pushed the hold buttons for each card and hit the deal button, the lights went off and I was paid for my dealt royal. Next time I'll tell you the story of my back to back royals.

[notes1]

premium hands make such a big difference in the results of VP games. any change in the machines that could cause a reduction in those premium hands would certainly have an effect on the cost of gambling. the loss of just a single 400/800 credit win would make a huge difference.  the combination of reduced paytables, costing a couple hundred credits and a reduction of even one premium hand, costing 400/800 credits, would be the difference between the good old days and todays results.   

[ko king]

I'll to this conversation.

Somewhere about 2.5 years ago Harrah's changed their machines to the newer versions. As many know I play mostly STP DDB. I was very leery of the change to new machines I had pretty much convinced myself that the "good days" where gone. I figured I'd give it a chance, learn my lessen and move one. To my surprise they played pretty true. I think I hit dealt quad aces on my 2nd or 3rd visit.   Since I don't track per visit stats it's hard for me to say if the new machines paid as well or with a similar number of high quality jackpots but I do remember saying "yeah I can live with this". Than came fall 2014. In a rip roaring, buggy pulling backup beeping parade of blue jump suited tech's most of the VP in the casino was systematically switch out. Basically they were doing motherboard swaps. The motherboards are almost always on a metal box type carrier and can easily be pulled out of the machine. Over a period of several weeks I'd regularly see this slamming, banging exercise going on all over the casino. There were 2 things I noticed after these swaps.

1. After what seems like a random number of hands the bill acceptor light will go out and the machine will not allow you to deal a new hand. At first I just noticed on a number of machines, but now it seems like it's just about every machine I play.

2. They just ain't pay'n like they used to. I am no longer able to get a rally going no matter how much I try and how much I gamble. There were many previous posts of mine where I would have 8-10 hand pays in a visit. Now getting 2 seems like a distant memory. I think I was having 70-80 hand pays a year a few years back. In 2015 I'm at 4. Now my play has changed quite a bit, and currently I'm not playing at all, but I was playing my normal schedule at the beginning of the year, still very little action.

If I had to guess I'd say that IGT has done something with their code that still meets the regulations but has an effect on the game.

I often wondered if the light going out and inability to deal quirk was to prevent players from dealing their hand quickly after the end of the last game. I can remember times where that little technique "seemed" to get me some really great jackpots. Wondering if they were able to identify that and program it out. Of course that will still keept the machine legal. Nothing in the rules says how fast the machine has to respond, just that it has to follow the rules. This is just my theory on that little jem.

So anyway, it does seem that things are different, but as I have seen posted before, there has always been a "good old days" story, even back in the "good old days". There were times where some were complaining that VP was dead and I was hitting 8+ jackpots a night. I can remember one of my favorite attendants (on more than one occasion), coming to pay me on on JP and then saying, oh I'll wait, your going to get one on that machine too only to hit 4A's or a RF only a few hands later. Ahh, the good old days...

Roveer



rover like you I used to have many days I would leave the casino with a pocketful of W-2G's, had a healthy stack at the end of each year, Now it's a rare treat to get 2, most days I walk out with none now, I now consider a good day when I leave with one. Now I can't say that's true of all casinos here but the two places I really like are always so crowded.

[Vman96]

premium hands make such a big difference in the results of VP games. any change in the machines that could cause a reduction in those premium hands would certainly have an effect on the cost of gambling. the loss of just a single 400/800 credit win would make a huge difference.  the combination of reduced paytables, costing a couple hundred credits and a reduction of even one premium hand, costing 400/800 credits, would be the difference between the good old days and todays results.   

Absolutely right. It doesn't take too much of an adjustment either. If someone plays a Class II machine and just follows their auto-hold suggestions, you won't notice that much of a difference in play. But the paytable will be 9/6 and it will payback ~92% because you'll just get those winning hands just a bit less often.

But all these proposed ways to "change" the machines written in the thread, are illegal in most states. But who knows, the casino could be breaking the law.

And just because a RNG cycles through numbers faster doesn't lead to results changing if it's a fair game. So what if the machine cycled through 20 dealt quads in the 3 seconds that you waited to hit the deal button instead of 5 dealt quads on some old clunker of an RNG? As long as the long-term probability of a dealt quad is 1 in 4165, I'm cool. My results aren't drastically different between older and newer machines. At least not enough for me to notice without data.