My 2016 Strategy

[FAA]

I also am ahead at some point in 90% of sessions. That means jack if I leave with my tail between my legs.so fed up with my lack of discipline. Even if no quad occurs, I'm getting out if I get around $50.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]Even if no quad occurs, I'm getting out if I get around $50.[/quote]Sounds good.  Sooooo hard to do.....

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]I am late to the discussion but I would have to say that being down
$1000 considering the quantity of video poker you played is pretty good.
Good luck to you in 2016 and more power to you if you can replicate
that same result. I think it will help considerably if you can get lucky
on the potshots you take if you do venture out to the high limit room.[/quote]I owe my results to playing cheap the majority of the time and hording my pot shot wins like it's the last dollar I will ever make. It's like running to the door, except you don't have to leave the casino.   I treat every day as a clean slate and it's worked pretty well so far.   Pumping money into a video poker game waiting for the odds to make you a winner doesn't work for me.  Actually I'm not sure it works for anyone else either, but I can only speak for myself.

[olds442jetaway]

     I will just speak for myself too. 95% returns on 99% games for the last 5 years. Still better than slots at 88 percent, but very painful unless you play something like CS or something very similar. Waiting for the math to come around could take as long as another planet to form in our solar system. There are no rules on when it will come around, just that it will over time. I am sure there a few vp players that have 104% returns over the same time frame to offset mine.

[FAA]

Those lucky 104ers better get out while the getting is good. I can handle a break even day, even though it gives down as a lost opportunity. Losing a win plus most of bankroll cannot become a pattern.

[olds442jetaway]

The Mrs. and I returned from an overnight early this afternoon. We got going late due to family stuff, but had a nice late night dinner and played most of the night. Even though we got tired toward the end of our play, it is nice to have the casino almost to yourself especially on a Friday night. We also played a little in the Am, but mostly caught up on sleep and our usual bagel and coffee in the early AM. The Mrs. had a ho hum trip this time on her usual nickel DDB tripple play DSTP. Very streaky this time which is to be expected and at the end a little more down than up.
     I had some pretty good results on my planned CSMC game plan. That is cheap strategy combined with martingale clone. While I never hit quad deuces, I stuck to quarter regular deuces single line games with airport deuces and ended up pretty good considering the elusive quad deuces decided to give themselves up to the player next to me on two occasions. Good for him.
     I won't bother with the details of play unless someone is really interested, but it starts out as CS and does go up to bet 5 on hits of 4 or more. The only difference in my trial and the Phil method is that after a few failures after hits of 4 or more at bet 5, I slowly up my max play next time it is called for beginning with bet 6. If necessary, I would go all the way up to bet 25 on a hit of 4 or more, but so far, that has not been necessary.
     The long and short of the session was that I ended up a hundred which is pretty good considering the absence of quad deuces. This was accomplished by hitting one wild royal and a few 5 of a kinds with bets like 5,6,9,and 12. Anytime a hit allowed my credits to reach a new high for the day, I returned the next bet down to bet 5 if I was up as say bet 7 and if that bet 5 lost, I just returned to regular CS and started all over. I still allow only 1 trial at the higher bet after a win of 4 or more and the main difference is upping the called for bet 5 to a higher number if things haven't been going well.

     Edited to add a couple of math tidbits. In the long run, on airport deuces, you will have a win of 4 or more an average of once every 10.24 hands. My average sessions run about 4,000 hands so in the long run, you will have an average of 390 chances at a bet of 5 or higher playing either CS or CSMC. That also means you will also in the long run hit quad deuces only about once every 14 sessions at a bet of 5 or more and a real Royal with a bet of 5 or more only once every 112 sessions. All of the above in round numbers. I think I got the math right, but if not, someone please correct me.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=olds442jetaway] The long and short of the session was that I ended up a hundred which is pretty good considering the absence of quad deuces. [/quote]Love those max coin Wild Royals and 5-of-Kinds.  They are at the heart of why CS works.  If you get enough of them, you can often go home a winner even without a quad deuce. 

[FAA]

Yep. Wish I'd been DW today. Zero JOB quads in 900 hands.

[FloridaPhil]

Don't feel bad.  I played 8/5 DDB in Biloxi once and never hit a single quad in an entire day's play.  That memory still smarts! 

[FAA]

I'm still rather incredulous. The machines had been so pliable the past four trips. Yesterday nobody was hitting anything. I should pass on multiple hour when progressive is a mere $10 over minimum anyway. Not that it means anything at all for my play. It's just not a very attractive play. I would much prefer a more Dancerian figure. Then again, I did hit my RF on the same machine when it was $6 over minimum.