What do you think

[New2vp]

I don't think you are crazy duckhunter.  I have been playing a ton of VP  for over 10 years at many different venues in vegas and at the Indian Casinos here in So Cal and have noticed many of those patterns.  Heres one that you didn't mention that I see virtually EVERY SESSION I PLAY THAT IS 3 HRS OR MORE:  Holding 3 to the royal  and and on the 1st card drawn getting 1 of the 2 for the royal but, of course, not the 2nd card needed for the royal.  Now, the math says that you should hit that 4th card exactly TWICE AS OFTEN as hitting the 5th card you need on a four-to-the-royal draw.  I'm telling you that I have hit that 4th card when holding 3 to the royal on EVERY SESSION FOR AT LEAST 50 STRAIGHT SESSIONS WHEN I PLAY A MINIMUM OF 3 HRS.  Of course I have not hit the royal half that many times.  Now, don't get me wrong,  I do hit a fair amount of royals I guess but I challenge anyone to tell me why that 4th card so often appears (and, again, not the 5th) when holding 3 to the royal.  If there was ever an example that suggested that the machine is rigged for some reason (I guess to excite you comming so close to the royal) this is it.  Don't take my word for it.  Start taking note when you play single line for at least 3 hrs sessions.  By the way happened last night again twice.
 
  By the way virtually all of my play is DDB single line. 
 
It is likely that most of us have noticed a similar situation on scratch-off lottery tickets which require matching 3 of the same number.  It's amazing how many times there are only 2 of any number.  Sort of like they are teasing us.  My guess is that they are.  Those numbers do NOT appear on lottery tickets randomly.
 
But..is the same thing happening with video poker?  Are the games and programmers tantalizing us by getting ever so close to the ultimate royal flush?
 
What you are noticing here is a very likely phenomenon that can be explained in the proportion of times that you have seen it if the cards are dealt randomly.  When you draw 2 cards to a 3-RF, imagine the remaining cards in two groups:  Group A: 2 cards that you need/want and Group B: 45 cards that you don't.  How many ways are there for you to get one card from Group A and one from Group B?  Well, you can get either of 2 cards from Group A and, with each of them, you can get any one of the 45 cards from Group B.  That is 2 x 45 = 90 different groups of cards.  Now, how many groups of cards get you both cards from Group A?  Sadly, only one.
 
So, whenever you get 3 to a royal flush, you are 90 times more likely to draw exactly one of the needed cards than to draw both of them.  In over 8% of your draws you will see one of the needed cards without the other, whereas you will get both in less than 0.1% of your draws.
 
Since you get 3 to a royal about 1 hand out of 60, you should see the extra single royal card about once every 722 hands, so it is not uncommon how you often see this occur when playing during a 3-hour visit (This may occur a bit less frequently if you sometimes keep a high pair or a 4-flush rather than drawing 2 cards to the royal).  Sadly, you need to multiply the above number by 90 to determine that it will take on average 64,974 hands to get that royal after first drawing 3 to a royal.  (This is higher than the 40,000-hand number that is often given for getting a royal because other royals will come after first getting dealt 4 to a royal, 2 to a royal if you keep only the two cards, and rarely 0,1, or 5 to a royal).
 
This won't help you get any more royals and likely won't keep you from getting frustrated when only the 4th card pops up, but maybe it removes this phenomenon as being explained only by conspiracy.

[clwn2]

Shadowman, my wife and I went to Lake Charles,LA. last month to L'Auberge du Lac casino. I was playing DDB 9/6, when I  was dealt a heart  flush 9 10 J Q A. My first thought was to hold for a royal. But I was low on credits ( 10) and already put several dollars into the machine, so I opted for the flush. The next hand dealt the King of hearts came up where the 9 of hearts was. My question is, would that King had been there if I  had threw the 9 away? Yes,no or maybe? What was the right move?       
 
I am sorry but I had to comment on this post.  My answer may or may not help but I will throw it out there.  In order to play this game intellegently I try to pick out the best schedules of the game I like to play.  I also try to learn the correct strategy for the game in order to win as much as possible and lose as little as possible.  In order to follow strategy and to get this higher rate of return sometimes small sacrifices have to be made.  I know that I hated thowing away a paying hand for something better when I first started playing  but over many years I became more and more interested in the bottom line.  I have seen the play that was mentioned in this post over and over again in the casino.  Infact, when I was in Vegas last I had an older genleman sitting next to me ask what to do with his hand.  He had a dealt flush that contained four to the royal.  I told him the right play by far was to hold for the royal.  He did so and got the lovely queen of spades.  He thanked me, we did the high five and I went back to playing. Incidently, I did not hit any royals during the trip with any of the forto's that I had (I must of has more than 6).  Royals are rare envents but they are what the majority of video poker players play for.  I have hit my share for the amount I play (around 25 of them).  I still enjoy them enough to sit there and admire them for awhile after hitting one! 
 
The point of my story is this:  I play to win, not to play longer.  There is no way to be a long term winner by not recognizing must hold hands.  Four to the royal is a must hold hand.  Not be redundant, but from this starting hand it is only 1 in 47 shot to get it.  At the start of the hand it is approx. 1 in 40k shot.  If you are the kind of person that likes to play it safe then I would make other adjustments to your game to make your money last longer.  I would never recommend holding any hand over four to the royal.
 
Trust me. If you like video poker as much as I do it is a moment you do not want to miss...
 
Good luck on the next one...  

[jazzman12]

Four to the Royal is not a must hold hand - just an almost must hold hand.

Four to the Royal should always be held (for max ROI) except in the following cases:

Dealt a straight flush 9-K
Dealt any flush (and for some reason you are not playing full coin - 5 credits)

[New2vp]

Since we are being technical, I would not keep KQJT9 suited...if I were playing Deuces Wild.  Toss the 9 and go for the gusto.  A straight flush on most deuce games is not enough to forego trying for the royal.
 
Sorry if this answer appears cranky...just lost a couple royals worth of credits on Quick Quads.

[MikeA]

Four to the Royal is not a must hold hand - just an almost must hold hand.

Four to the Royal should always be held (for max ROI) except in the following cases:

Dealt a straight flush 9-K
Dealt any flush (and for some reason you are not playing full coin - 5 credits)You are ABSOLUTELY correct Jazzman.  I was not wrong though when I said that in EVERY case I could think of that tossing the oddball was the correct play.  True because I didn't THINK about a dealt straight flush!  LOL  CRS moment.

[clwn2]

Four to the Royal is not a must hold hand - just an almost must hold hand.

Four to the Royal should always be held (for max ROI) except in the following cases:

Dealt a straight flush 9-K
Dealt any flush (and for some reason you are not playing full coin - 5 credits)
 
First off, in the post I was referring to the member did not have a dealt straight flush, he had 4 to the royal.   Second, I would always hold the four to the royal over a flush(not considering wild card games) regardless of how many coins played.  I don't see any reason to intentionally avoid hitting a jackpot or at least a very good hand(in the case of short coin play).  Lets face it, in real life 30 credits lasts about as long as a good sneeze.  What's the point?  

[MikeA]

 
First off, in the post I was referring to the member did not have a dealt straight flush, he had 4 to the royal.   Second, I would always hold the four to the royal over a flush(not considering wild card games) regardless of how many coins played.  I don't see any reason to intentionally avoid hitting a jackpot or at least a very good hand(in the case of short coin play).  Lets face it, in real life 30 credits lasts about as long as a good sneeze.  What's the point?   I'm pretty sure the reply by Jazzman was to the comment I made about always holding for a four-card Royal.  He pointed out the correct strategy for 9/6 DDB which is to always hold for the Royal UNLESS you have a dealt Straight Flush.  It is not in VPW that I saw but needless to say, I've overlooked things before.  For any other hand (besides any dealt straight flush), you would certainly go for the Royal.  " I'm not sure where the specification of "unless it is 9-K" was taken from. " is a statement that I'm editing.    9-K is the ONLY time you could have a straight flush and also have 4 to the Royal! DUH! I need a new drug!I can quote the EV if you wish, I just don't have VPW loaded right now.

[EDC1977]

refer to pg. 3 of this thread for ev #'s 4rf and flush. These numbers were drawn from Dean Zamzows software. I don't have VPW and don't know how much difference there is other than updated game listings and correct ways to play them.

[jm002546]

I don't think you are crazy duckhunter.  I have been playing a ton of VP  for over 10 years at many different venues in vegas and at the Indian Casinos here in So Cal and have noticed many of those patterns.  Heres one that you didn't mention that I see virtually EVERY SESSION I PLAY THAT IS 3 HRS OR MORE:  Holding 3 to the royal  and and on the 1st card drawn getting 1 of the 2 for the royal but, of course, not the 2nd card needed for the royal.  Now, the math says that you should hit that 4th card exactly TWICE AS OFTEN as hitting the 5th card you need on a four-to-the-royal draw.  I'm telling you that I have hit that 4th card when holding 3 to the royal on EVERY SESSION FOR AT LEAST 50 STRAIGHT SESSIONS WHEN I PLAY A MINIMUM OF 3 HRS.  Of course I have not hit the royal half that many times.  Now, don't get me wrong,  I do hit a fair amount of royals I guess but I challenge anyone to tell me why that 4th card so often appears (and, again, not the 5th) when holding 3 to the royal.  If there was ever an example that suggested that the machine is rigged for some reason (I guess to excite you comming so close to the royal) this is it.  Don't take my word for it.  Start taking note when you play single line for at least 3 hrs sessions.  By the way happened last night again twice.
 
  By the way virtually all of my play is DDB single line.    The TEASER draw is well documented on normal slots where you can see above and below the pay line.  The RNG determines whether you have a win or not, and, if not, they are free to display any result they wish.Obviously they very often show the "near jackpot misses."  The same may be true in VP. When the RNG hits trash on the draw, the machine may have the option of showing any cards they care to - thus the frequent fourth to the royal hit. Them gambling providers have lots of power and money to sway the regulators.

[clwn2]

[QUOTE=clwn2] 
First off, in the post I was referring to the member did not have a dealt straight flush, he had 4 to the royal.   Second, I would always hold the four to the royal over a flush(not considering wild card games) regardless of how many coins played.  I don't see any reason to intentionally avoid hitting a jackpot or at least a very good hand(in the case of short coin play).  Lets face it, in real life 30 credits lasts about as long as a good sneeze.  What's the point?  

I'm pretty sure the reply by Jazzman was to the comment I made about always holding for a four-card Royal.  He pointed out the correct strategy for 9/6 DDB which is to always hold for the Royal UNLESS you have a dealt Straight Flush.  It is not in VPW that I saw but needless to say, I've overlooked things before.  For any other hand (besides any dealt straight flush), you would certainly go for the Royal. 

" I'm not sure where the specification of "unless it is 9-K" was taken from. "

is a statement that I'm editing.    9-K is the ONLY time you could have a straight flush and also have 4 to the Royal! DUH! I need a new drug!

I can quote the EV if you wish, I just don't have VPW loaded right now.
[/QUOTE]
 
Sorry Mike, I did not want to start a contrversy. I responded to the original post about a dealt hand that was a flush.  It also had four to the straight flush and four to the royal.  There was no pat hand other than the flush.  My point was this:  If you can't pull the trigger on a four to the royal draw maybe you had better pick a safer hobby such as doll collecting...
 
I am not trying to offend anyone but I think the logic behind keeping the flush is insane when you consider what players are up against here.  These games are brutal even if you know what you are doing.  Hitting the occasional royal is one of the only things that evens the odds for the knowledgable player.   If we were participating in a general forum that did not promote smart play I would have kept my mouth shut.  This is a forum where we try to share knowledgable information with those who want to to win.   
 
I will leave it at that...