simple question for rolan

[Eduardo]

Eduardo,
If the AP player played the IDENTICAL same hands as the 500 short termers then he WOULD win less because of betting less per hand!! 



 
So you are saying the AP player would be a little ahead after all those hands, and the STS group would be way ahead? So the more people bet, the more a casino loses?

[royal flush]

his system involves knowing that only playing one coin on the hands that he knows he will lose and 5 coins on the hands he knows he will win,

[rolanddude]

[QUOTE=rolanddude]Eduardo,If the AP player played the IDENTICAL same hands as the 500 short termers then he WOULD win less because of betting less per hand!! 



 
So you are saying the AP player would be a little ahead after all those hands, and the STS group would be way ahead? So the more people bet, the more a casino loses?[/QUOTE]Don't distort it Eduardo!! You are really reaching...!!!  I have taken the time today to play five sessions and document the results here.  Live with it...Try it yourself...I could care less what you think about them.  The results are typical and REAL...similar to the  Results for me over the last year/+.  Things have been dramatically different for me than my grind-it-out days in a casino.

[royal flush]

yes you "forget" to keep track of your losses. and thats why casinos downgraded the paytables to stop the atvantage players

[Eduardo]

Rolan I did not distort anything. I simply asked: "Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of them combined?"

You said:
"If the AP player played the IDENTICAL same hands as the 500 short termers then he WOULD win less because of betting less per hand!! "
 
I assumed you were actually answering the question this time so I assumed you meant that the casino loses more money with the 500 players like you. I thought this because it is always the player against the casino, and you said the AP player would win less (which means the casino was better off). If that is not what you meant, then you did not actually answer the question. If that was what you meant, I'm wondering what you base it on. Now it sounds like maybe you're just saying people should bet more so they can win more. But I know there is more to your strategy than that.
 
I don't care what 5 sessions showed you. If I based play on my past 5 personal sessions it would say I'd be a millionaire by doing it every time. That is simply not true.
 
But let me think of a simple question for you to answer. How about this one:
Will 500 people playing the same way you do take more money or less money from the casino than an individual playing perfect strategy the same total number of hands as all 500 of them combined?

[rolanddude]

I would venture to say that there are about 500 people playing AP (or trying to) for every 1 person playing STS.  Now take all of the AP players in the world and pick out the BEST 500 of them. (please include shadowman for his sake)  Now take ALL the hands they play as a group and add up all the time they spend collectively at the machines for one year. (assume they play 3 days per week for 8 hours per day per person @ only 600 hands per hour on NSU Deuces Wild $1 machines [99.728% theoretical payback]...w/unlimited bankroll). 
That would be 374,400,000 hands played in one year. (748,800/player)  A total of $1,872,000,000 will have been run through the machines. ($3,744,000/player)  According to the "Math" these players would have theoretically lost $5,091,840 or ... $10,183.68 per player.  One would need $65.28 per day in comps just to be even...they could pay you $8/hr. to work part time for them the days you are there and still make $1.28 an hour from you...
 
After this amount of play, I can guarantee that results would be worse than this "perfect world" scenario.  We are human and will make mistakes occasionally.  Now take all the time spent combined with the fact that you WILL NOT WIN IN THE LONG TERM with any negative expectation game...PERIOD and then try to justify your obsession/addiction by touting cashback/comps earned... The casinos are laughing theirs butts off.
 
I am positive that since an overwhelming amount of VP players play the "accepted" way and strive to be "good enough" to play AP...  The casinos love you. 
 
I contend that if more players had the self-control and discipline to play in a style similar to the true STS players then the casinos would DEFINITELY make changes.  I don't think they would worsen the overall pitiful paytables but I predict they would cut down on how many Multi-Denom machines they make available...especially the ones with 5 or more denom levels.
 
In summary...  EDUARDO (congrats on your last trips btw), for you to try to bait me into philisophical arguments such as the "bet more-win more" crap or any other traps that most here can't think through logically is bs and is worthless.  The TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will win with AP in the short term. (maybe 10 to 20% of your sessions)  Another TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will go many, many sessions without a loss with STS and win much more $ than you will lose with an occasional bad session.  (you have around an 80% chance of winning your session using STS) 
 
I'm sure a casino would MUCH rather see 500 people playing like the Dancers and shadowmans of the world do.  They are "banking" on it!!

[shadowman]

Shadowman is a deceiver and a bumbling idiot!! 

1.  Where did I suggest holding a low pair instead of two pair?
2.  Where did I suggest holding 3 to a Royal instead of 3oak?
3.  Where are you getting off on saying what is or is not one of MY  "special plays"?
4.  Find me a manager/coach in any sport that thinks that points are     more preferable than wins.

 You are a sack of dung Shadow.  Call me a liar?  You have and still do claim that I am not who I say!  Now you try to put words in my mouth that I never even suggested...Not to mention you are too dense to recognize it!!  BTW, the 2% that you seem to be dismissing with your Royals is required to make AP strategy come close to 100% over time!!


 
Both of the example of holds ( 1. and 2.) are examples of special plays that your hero has BRAGGED about making in the past. Are you calling him a liar? Or, are you saying he is a "bumbling idiot" for recommending those plays?
 
Your 3. is just a rehash of 1. and 2. Once again you're calling your hero a "bumbling idiot".
 
And finally, your response to 4. is a strawman. I never mentioned wins or losses. Just scoring runs. You failed to answer a very simple question. So, let me ask it again. Do you think a manager would choose to score less runs or more runs? Pretty simple question. (but, I understand why you avoided it. It's obvious to anyone with a brain that they would choose to score more runs. You know it as well, so your only hope was to avoid the question altogether).

[shadowman]

I would venture to say that there are about 500 people playing AP (or trying to) for every 1 person playing STS.  Now take all of the AP players in the world and pick out the BEST 500 of them. (please include shadowman for his sake)  Now take ALL the hands they play as a group and add up all the time they spend collectively at the machines for one year. (assume they play 3 days per week for 8 hours per day per person @ only 600 hands per hour on NSU Deuces Wild $1 machines [99.728% theoretical payback]...w/unlimited bankroll). 
That would be 374,400,000 hands played in one year. (748,800/player)  A total of $1,872,000,000 will have been run through the machines. ($3,744,000/player)  According to the "Math" these players would have theoretically lost $5,091,840 or ... $10,183.68 per player.  One would need $65.28 per day in comps just to be even...they could pay you $8/hr. to work part time for them the days you are there and still make $1.28 an hour from you...
 
After this amount of play, I can guarantee that results would be worse than this "perfect world" scenario.  We are human and will make mistakes occasionally.  Now take all the time spent combined with the fact that you WILL NOT WIN IN THE LONG TERM with any negative expectation game...PERIOD and then try to justify your obsession/addiction by touting cashback/comps earned... The casinos are laughing theirs butts off.
 
I played something similar to this. It was DB+ at 99.78% but let's assume my errors dropped my real return to 99.72%. Now factor in the CB and BB. CB was either 10x or 5x and I would play each one once a week. So, the average was about .8% as I played a little more on 10x days. The BB was 1.2%. So, my cash extras were 2% of the $3,744,000 if I use your number. That would be $74,880-$10,184 = $64,696 won. Yeah, that sounds pretty awful. I'm sure the casinos are just itching to lose that amount of money to 500 players. Oh yeah, they downgraded the paytable on the machine. I wonder why they did that?
 
I am positive that since an overwhelming amount of VP players play the "accepted" way and strive to be "good enough" to play AP...  The casinos love you. 
 
Of course they do, they love me so much they keep downgrading paytables over and over again. Explain why they would do this if they can make so much money off me. Anyone ever explain simple logic to you?
 
I contend that if more players had the self-control and discipline to play in a style similar to the true STS players then the casinos would DEFINITELY make changes.  I don't think they would worsen the overall pitiful paytables but I predict they would cut down on how many Multi-Denom machines they make available...especially the ones with 5 or more denom levels.
 
In summary...  EDUARDO (congrats on your last trips btw), for you to try to bait me into philisophical arguments such as the "bet more-win more" crap or any other traps that most here can't think through logically is bs and is worthless.  The TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will win with AP in the short term. (maybe 10 to 20% of your sessions)  Another TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will go many, many sessions without a loss with STS and win much more $ than you will lose with an occasional bad session.  (you have around an 80% chance of winning your session using STS) 
 
I'm sure a casino would MUCH rather see 500 people playing like the Dancers and shadowmans of the world do.  They are "banking" on it!!


 
No, they are "banking" on the fact that most people don't come close to playing perfectly. They are banking on the math. They would love you and your STS even more since you are selling the idea that making more poor plays will lead to winning more money. That's about is silly as it gets. Oh, that's right, you also claim scoring less runs in baseball will lead to more wins.

[cddenver]

Another TRUTH is that IF you are lucky you will go many, many sessions without a loss with STS and win much more $ than you will lose with an occasional bad session.  (you have around an 80% chance of winning your session using STS) 
 
You're saying that a steady diet of good luck is necessary to win more $'s over time with a STS?  I'd agree with that, but what about those of us who aren't naturally lucky?  As far as I know, you can't sell or buy luck. 
 
You should stop trying to lead players to believe that a higher winning percentage of sessions somehow automatically leads to more dollars won.  Using that same simplistic logic, one could say that the average person should always have a negative bank balance, since the majority of their transactions are negative ones (withdrawals) and not positive (deposits).   

[shadowman]

The strange thing about RD's posts is that anyone can use a progression. It's the progression that increases sessions wins, not making silly low percentage plays. I can play perfect mathematical strategy using a progression and get just as many session wins. And, I'll make more money at the end of every year. So, anyone who wants to increase their wins can do it without giving up even a fraction of a cent.
 
But of course, it's not a fraction. Even RD's choice of two pair vs. keeping just the high pair costs a lot more than a fraction of a cent. BP is one of the main games in certain STSs and at the $2 level the two pair returns .8 additional credits or $1.60 each and every time. In DDB it costs about $1.30 every time.
 
Keep making those special plays, RD, I'd rather win money.